The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Tuesday, 6/1

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 1

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Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($9,600 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) only needed to play 31 minutes in Portland’s blowout win over the Nuggets on Saturday, but he should play 40-plus minutes if tonight’s game is competitive. Lillard played at least 40 minutes in each of the first three games of the series. He has a 32.5 percent usage rate and 40.2 percent assist rate through the first four games and has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute.

Kyrie Irving ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) posted a monster game last time out after struggling from a DFS standpoint in the first three games of the series. It is difficult to rely on Irving any given night since he has to share the ball with James Harden and Kevin Durant, but there is no doubt that he has an extremely high ceiling for his price. He has a 26.6 percent usage rate and has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of the series. The biggest concern for Irving is that he has only an 11.7 percent assist rate in those games and he has averaged just 5.3 potential assists per game. With Harden and Durant healthy, Irving is a scoring dependent player.

Chris Paul ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) played 31.7 minutes last game, which is the most minutes he has played since getting injured in the first game of the series. Paul had a strong fantasy game as well, posting 41.25 DraftKings points with 18 points and 9 assists. He has only averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in this series but, assuming his shoulder is feeling better, that number should increase going forward as he averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in the 66 games that he played alongside Devin Booker this season.

Payton Pritchard ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is overpriced on FanDuel but he is still near minimum salary on DraftKings. Pritchard played 23.7 minutes with Kemba Walker sidelined last game and Walker is expected to miss tonight’s game as well. The playing time is a bit deceiving as Pritchard benefited from a blowout. He played about nine first half minutes, however, and he projects as a reasonable point-per-dollar value even if he only plays about 18 minutes tonight. There is also certainly the potential for more garbage time as the Nets are 12.5-point favorites.

Top DraftKings Picks: Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Payton Pritchard

Top FanDuel Picks: Damian Lillard, Chris Paul

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Shooting Guard

James Harden ($10,600 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of this series. In those games, he has a 25.2 percent usage rate and a 45.6 percent assist rate. He has dominated potential assists for the Nets, averaging 14.8 per game. Durant is second on the team with 5.8 potential assists per game. Harden is expensive, but he has been a top fantasy producer so far in the postseason.

Devin Booker ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has averaged only 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in the four games against the Lakers this postseason, but he has also averaged 41.5 minutes per game. He has a healthy 30.7 percent usage rate and has also contributed a 23.3 percent assist rate. During the regular season, Booker averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.6 percent usage rate. While his usage rate has slightly decreased in the postseason, his true shooting percentage has decreased from 58.7 percent to 54.7 percent as well. Booker is very fairly priced for 41-plus minutes of action and he has the potential to be one of the best plays on the slate if his shooting percentage regresses toward his season average.

C.J. McCollum ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) offers relatively inexpensive exposure to the Blazers’ backcourt if you can’t find the salary for Lillard. McCollum has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.9 percent usage rate this postseason. He has also averaged 37.8 minutes per game, including the Game 4 blowout where he only needed to play 34.7 minutes. If tonight’s game is close, he should play at least 38 minutes.

Marcus Smart ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is a beneficiary of Walker’s expected absence as he gets more point guard responsibilities. Smart has played well so far this postseason with 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 19.6 percent usage rate and 28.9 percent assist rate through the first four games, and he has averaged 36 minutes per game. There is plenty of blowout risk tonight but, if the game is close, Smart is likely to be one of the reasons why. In 203 minutes alongside Jayson Tatum without Jaylen Brown or Walker on the floor this season, Smart has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.4 percent usage rate and 27.6 percent assist rate.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/01/2021″ team=”celtics”]

Top DraftKings Picks: James Harden, Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum, Marcus Smart

Top FanDuel Picks: James Harden, Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum, Marcus Smart

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($10,200 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) has produced at a similar rate to Harden in the postseason with 1.54 DraftKings points per minute and 37.3 minutes per game. He leads the Nets with a 32.9 percent usage rate and has contributed a 12.8 percent rebounding rate and 14.2 percent assist rate as well. The small forward position actually offers some strong mid-range options tonight so the opportunity cost is higher than normal, but there is certainly no issue with rostering Durant if you can afford him.

LeBron James ($9,800 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and 37.8 minutes per game so far in the series against Phoenix. He may also be playing without Anthony Davis tonight, who is questionable. Somewhat surprisingly, James’ production didn’t benefit much in the games that Davis missed during the regular season. James averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in 18 games without Davis compared to 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games alongside Davis. If Davis sits, James’ ownership is likely to increase but the numbers suggest that an increase in ownership isn’t necessarily deserved.

Michael Porter Jr. ($7,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) has not produced at a high level so far in the postseason. He has averaged only 0.82 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.7 percent usage rate and 10.2 percent rebounding rate. Porter averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 23 regular season games without Jamal Murray, however, so we know that there is the potential for much more. One thing that stands out is that Porter had 67.6 percent true shooting in those regular season games compared to 59.2 percent in the postseason. It is reasonable to think that Porter will shoot more if his shot is falling, so we should be looking to roster Porter at a reduced salary before he posts a big game and it increases.

Evan Fournier ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has struggled so far in the postseason with 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. He hasn’t carried over his strong production from the end of the regular season. In 175 minutes alongside Tatum without Brown or Walker, Fournier has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points with a 19.3 percent usage rate since joining the Celtics. He played 39 and 37 minutes in the two competitive games that have been played in this series, so he does have upside at his salary, but the risk of blowout combined with his poor production gives him a relatively low floor as well.

Norman Powell ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) had a monster game in Game 4 as he helped to blowout the Nuggets. Powell scored 29 points in about 34 minutes of action. Overall in this series, he has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute and 33.3 minutes per game. Powell will not score like last game, but he is reasonably priced (especially on DraftKings) for his role and production.

Mikal Bridges ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has been awful from a fantasy standpoint this postseason with 0.53 DraftKings points per minute. He has still averaged 33.8 minutes per game, however, and he was a reasonable fantasy producer during the regular season with 0.81 DraftKings points per minute. His true shooting percentage in the postseason is nearly 20 points lower than it was during the regular season, so we shouldn’t write him off. He doesn’t look like a priority since there are similarly priced options that produce at a higher rate, but he still can be a useful piece in lineup construction.

Top DraftKings Picks: Kevin Durant, Michael Porter Jr., Norman Powell

Top FanDuel Picks: Kevin Durant, Michael Porter Jr., Evan Fournier

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Power Forward

Jayson Tatum ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) is the clear top option at power forward, though he does also come with risk since the Celtics are 12.5-point underdogs. Tatum has been excellent in the last two games, after struggling in the first two games of the series, and he will need to carry the Celtics again tonight if this game is going to be competitive. Tatum has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute overall and 35.8 minutes per game in this series. He has played 759 minutes without Walker or Brown on the floor this season and averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute.

Aaron Gordon ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has been a disappointing DFS option since he was traded to Denver, but the power forward position doesn’t offer much to be confident in tonight and Gordon’s salary reflects his mediocre fantasy performances. He has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of the postseason. He has only averaged 27.3 minutes per game, but there is reason for optimism as he played about 33 minutes in the last competitive game. He only played about 14 minutes in the first half of Game 4, however, so there is no guarantee that he tops 30 minutes again tonight even if the game is close.

Robert Covington ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) offers more secure playing time than Gordon as he has averaged 36.5 minutes per game in the postseason. He has only produced 0.59 DraftKings points per minute, however, which is obviously concerning. Covington averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games played alongside Lillard, McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic during the regular season, however.

Jae Crowder ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has seen his playing time increase as the series has gone along. He played about 29 minutes in each of the first two games, followed by 31 and 35 minutes in the two most recent games. He has dealt with some foul trouble during the series that has impacted his minutes as well. If he avoids foul trouble tonight, he should play another 32-plus minutes. He has produced 0.84 DraftKings points per minute so far against the Lakers in the postseason.

Top DraftKings Picks: Jayson Tatum, Robert Covington, Jae Crowder

Top FanDuel Picks: Jayson Tatum, Aaron Gordon, Robert Covington

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,400 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) is one of the top options on the slate, though it is worth noting that the opportunity cost for paying up at center tonight is high thanks to a very strong mid-range. Jokic struggled last game but has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute overall in this series. In 28 total games without Murray, including the postseason, Jokic has averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.6 percent usage rate, 18.1 percent rebounding rate and 40.2 percent assist rate.

Deandre Ayton ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) has been an extremely pleasant surprise for the Suns in the postseason. He has averaged 39.8 minutes per game through the first four games of the series and he has produced 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. He only has a 16.4 percent usage rate in the postseason, but he has been efficient with 19.8 points per game. He has also averaged 13.5 rebounds per game. His salary isn’t increasing very quickly, and he should play about 40 minutes again tonight as long as the game is competitive, and he avoids foul trouble.

Jusuf Nurkic ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has had some issues with foul trouble as he attempts to defend Nikola Jokic. He should play 32-plus minutes if the game is competitive, however. The first three games of the series were competitive and Nurkic played 33, 25 and 32 minutes — fouling out of the last two. Last game was a blowout, but he played about 27 minutes in three quarters. His 18 first half minutes suggest that we could have seen 34 to 36 minutes had the game been competitive. Nurkic has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this postseason and he averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games with Lillard and McCollum active this season.

Tristan Thompson ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) disappointed a large percentage of the field in his last game as he produced only 18 DraftKings points in 22.5 minutes of action. Thompson played about 16 minutes in the first half, however, which suggests that he was likely to play around 32 minutes had the game been competitive. Robert Williams is out again tonight, so Thompson doesn’t have a true backup. He has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of this series. His playing time is volatile since this game has blowout risk but, if it requires a fourth quarter, Thompson should play 30-plus minutes.

Marc Gasol ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) has no business being more than $5,000 on FanDuel, but he also probably shouldn’t be near minimum salary on DraftKings. Gasol has overtaken Montrezl Harrell as the back-up center in this series and he played very well in Game 4 as he helped spark a fourth quarter comeback effort. Gasol finished that game with 23.3 minutes played and he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in this series. Gasol’s playing time is likely to increase if Anthony Davis misses this game, and the 48 center minutes should be split between Drummond and Gasol. Gasol averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute and 21.4 minutes per game in 12 games played without Davis and with James this season.

Top DraftKings Picks: Nikola Jokic, Deandre Ayton, Jusuf Nurkic

Top FanDuel Picks: Nikola Jokic, Deandre Ayton, Jusuf Nurkic


Be sure to check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Loughy and Josh!

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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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