The NBA Deep Dive is our most in-depth NBA DFS article, offering analysis of some of the top picks and optimal strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups on the slate today. Used in conjunction with Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections, ownership projections and Boom/Bust tool, it should help you to improve the quality of your lineups. With news breaking throughout the day and the NBA injury reports being released, the best place to find all of today’s starters is our Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page.
The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks & Optimal Lineup Strategy
Guard
Damian Lillard ($9,200 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is reasonably priced for his decreased production this season, and there is a good chance that his production will increase going forward. Lillard has produced just 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season, but his effective field goal percentage is 41.5%, compared to 55.4% last season and 51.9% in his career. Lillard is typically playing about 38 minutes in competitive games.
C.J. McCollum ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has a higher usage rate than Lillard this season (28.4% to 27.7%) and has produced 1.13 DraftKings points per minute compared to Lillard’s 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. McCollum should not outproduce Lillard over the course of the entire season, but the gap between the two is not all that large. Portland is consistently staggering McCollum’s minutes with Lillard’s, which was not a given in the past and helps McCollum’s fantasy output. McCollum stands out on DraftKings because he is $2,000 less expensive than Lillard.
McCollum is also a hot topic of discussion in Terry McBride’s NBA Optimal Lineup Picks & Leverage Leaders article, where he dives deep into what makes McCollum such a strong play on DraftKings and FanDuel today.
Tyrese Maxey ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has played 37, 45, 44 and 39 minutes in his last four games, and he is likely to play a ton of minutes tonight as well. Matisse Thybulle, Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris are out for the 76ers, and Seth Curry is listed as questionable. Maxey has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and has a 21.3% usage rate and 22.1% assist rate in 127 minutes without Harris or Embiid on the floor this season.
Anfernee Simons ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) has had a consistent role as the third guard for Portland this year. He has averaged 23.1 minutes and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute through his first 10 games. Typically, his limited ceiling playing behind Lillard, and McCollum is enough to keep him from being a useful DFS option but, with only three games and very limited value tonight, he stands out as a strong pay-down option.
Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) is the highest projected player on tonight’s slate. He is one of the best per-minute fantasy producers in the league with 1.72 DraftKings points per minute. He leads Milwaukee with a 35.1% usage rate, 17.9% rebounding rate and 33.6% assist rate. The only factor working against Antetokounmpo tonight is that he is expensive and there are not many inexpensive players that are safe rosters.
Paul George ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) was disappointing in his last game, but he has been a strong fantasy producer so far. George has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute and has a 33.4% usage rate, 12.2% rebounding rate and 26.6% assist rate. Antetokounmpo projects as the better pay-up option, but George is slightly less expensive, so he serves as a consolation prize from Antetokounmpo.
Bobby Portis ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) was inserted into the starting lineup in Milwaukee’s last game and played 30.7 minutes against the Wizards. He should start again tonight with Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez sidelined. Portis has been a strong fantasy producer throughout his career, and he has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute alongside Antetokounmpo in 789 minutes since the start of last season.
Furkan Korkmaz ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) played 39.8 minutes last night, and the Sixers are going to need him to play big minutes again tonight. He will likely not approach 40 minutes, though that becomes more likely if Curry is unable to play. He is inexpensive enough that he only needs about 30 minutes, and anything more is icing on the cake. Korkmaz has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and has a 23.9% usage rate in 165 minutes without Embiid or Harris on the floor.
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Center
Andre Drummond ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) is the clear top center option again tonight. The DFS sites tried to quickly increase his salary in Embiid’s absence, but they did not go far enough. Drummond has played 34 and 38 minutes in his two starts this season, and he has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 197 total minutes. Over the last three seasons, Drummond has started 104 games. He has averaged 30.4 minutes per game in those games and 1.42 DraftKings points per minute. He is an elite fantasy producer and is being priced like a decent backup who has stepped into a larger role.
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