The NBA Deep Dive is our most in-depth NBA DFS article, offering analysis of some of the top picks and optimal strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups on the slate today. Used in conjunction with Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections, ownership projections and Boom/Bust Tool, it should help you to improve the quality of your lineups. With news breaking throughout the day and the NBA injury reports being released, the best place to find all of today’s starters is our Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page.
The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks & Optimal Lineup Strategy
Guard
Dejounte Murray ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) faces the Suns in what is likely to be a surprisingly fast paced game. The Spurs rank fifth in pace so far this season while Phoenix has played at the fourth-fastest pace. Murray is having an excellent season, averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute, a 24.8% usage rate, 12.2% rebounding rate and 32.4% assist rate.
Terry McBride is loving Murray as one of the best leverage plays tonight. Check out his NBA DFS Optimal Lineup & Leverage Plays article for even more on Murray, and a couple of other guys who could differentiate your lineup tonight.
Tyrese Maxey ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) has gotten expensive, but he will most likely be playing without Tobias Harris in addition to Joel Embiid. Maxey is likely to play 36-plus minutes tonight against Sacramento and he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 199 minutes without Harris or Embiid on the floor this season.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has not produced at as high a level since Caris LeVert returned to the lineup, but his salary is falling as a result. Brogdon has still been a strong fantasy producer in the games LeVert has played, however, with 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and a 24.1% usage rate.
Jalen Suggs ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) played 25.4 minutes in a blowout loss against Milwaukee on Saturday with Cole Anthony sidelined and he will be playing without Anthony again tonight. There is certainly blowout risk again, and he is more expensive than he was in his last game, but he offers enormous upside without Anthony on the floor. Suggs is second on the team to Anthony with a 25.9% usage rate and 20% assist rate this season. In 209 minutes without Anthony on the floor, Suggs has a 26.7% usage rate and 22.2% assist rate.
Seth Curry ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) is likely to see an increase in usage with Harris and Embiid sidelined as well. He has played 118 minutes without either of them on the floor this season and has a 23.6% usage rate and 20.2% assist rate while averaging 1 DraftKings point per minute.
R.J. Hampton ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) played 28.1 minutes in Orlando’s blowout loss on Saturday. While he only played about 11 minutes in the first half, Hampton still has a high ceiling because he has multiple paths to success. Orlando could elect to give him more minutes in a competitive game if he is playing well, or he could get additional minutes at the end of a blowout. Gary Harris is also out tonight after playing 24.1 minutes last game so there are more minutes potentially available for Hampton anyway. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in 159 minutes without Anthony on the floor this season.
Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000 DraftKings/$11,700 FanDuel) is expensive but there is plenty of value available on tonight’s slate. Antetokounmpo is one of the best per-minute producers in the league and he is the top-projected player on tonight’s slate by a wide margin. Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.71 DraftKings points per minute this season, a 35.4% usage rate, 18.8% rebounding rate and 31.2% assist rate. While he has only played five games with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton both active, his rates have not taken a hit as he has a 37.8% usage rate, 21.2% rebounding rate and 35.1% assist rate in those games.
Anthony Edwards ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute, a 28.2% usage rate in the 14 games that he has played alongside D’Angelo Russell this season. Edwards has also averaged 35.8 minutes per game in those games. While Edwards is better in games where Russell is out, he is still underpriced for his ceiling with Russell active.
Josh Giddey ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) faces an Atlanta team that has struggled defensively this season. The Hawks rank 27th in defensive rating and they are 17th in pace. Giddey is valuable because he has small forward eligibility on DraftKings and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel even though he is a point guard. He leads the Thunder with a 31.1% assist rate this season and has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable tonight as well. In 114 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, Giddey’s assist rate is 37.1% and he has produced 1.08 DraftKings points per minute.
Wendell Carter, Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) is a volatile option because his playing time is inconsistent as a result of foul trouble and sometimes losing closing minutes to Mo Bamba. His salary accounts for the downside, however, and he is capable of playing 30-plus minutes. Carter has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 91 minutes without Anthony on the floor.
Josh Hart ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) disappointed a large rate of the field in his last game, but he remains a strong value option tonight against Minnesota. Hart is likely to play 34-plus minutes if the game is competitive and he has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in the seven games he has played alongside Brandon Ingram this season.
Kyle Anderson ($4,400 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) started in place of Dillon Brooks in Memphis’s last game and Brooks is doubtful again tonight. De’Anthony Melton is also out, so there should be plenty of minutes available for Anderson. Anderson only played 20.2 minutes in his start, but that was a game that Memphis lost by 43 points. There is blowout risk again tonight, but if the game is competitive, Anderson should approach 30 minutes, as he played 15 minutes in the first half against Minnesota.
Georges Niang ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) started Philadelphia’s last game and played 34.8 minutes against Portland. The absence of Tobias Harris makes his playing time even more secure and also opens up additional usage within the offense. Niang has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute, a 20.8% usage rate in 265 minutes without Embiid or Harris on the floor this season.
Franz Wagner ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is another Orlando option that is clearly underpriced, particularly on DraftKings, if they are able to keep tonight’s game competitive. Wagner has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season and is likely to exceed 30 minutes if the game is close in the fourth quarter.
Lonnie Walker ($3,900 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is likely to get increased playing time with Doug McDermott sidelined tonight against the Suns. Walker has averaged 22.9 minutes per game in 12 games with McDermott this season compared to 24.5 minutes per game in three games with McDermott sidelined. Walker has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute, a 22.7% usage rate overall this season.
Chuma Okeke ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is currently projected to be one of the sneakier options from Orlando at just five% ownership on DraftKings and two% ownership on FanDuel. Okeke played 24 minutes against Milwaukee on Saturday, and he did not benefit from garbage time, so his minutes are secure, even if the game is competitive. Okeke has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season and he is capable of playing multiple positions so it will be easy for Orlando to keep him on the floor if he is playing well.
DeAndre’ Bembry ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is likely to start in place of Bruce Brown tonight for Brooklyn. Bembry looked like one of the best value plays at the beginning of the day, but his relative value has dropped as players on other teams have been ruled out. He has averaged 0.65 DraftKings points per minute this season and could exceed 30 minutes tonight, so he still projects as a strong point-per-dollar value even if his upside is limited playing alongside Kevin Durant and James Harden.
Latest NBA DFS Content
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Play-In Tournament Day 2! (April 17)
- DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Joel Embiid (April 17)
- FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Stephen Curry (April 17)
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Play-In Tournament Day 1! (April 16)
- PrizePicks, Sleeper & Underdog Cheat Sheet: Best More/Less Picks Today for NBA, MLB & NHL (April 14)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) is reasonably priced for his matchup tonight against a bad Pelicans team. Towns can be difficult to trust since he has to share the ball with Russell and Edwards, but he still offers a massive ceiling. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute and 34.9 minutes per game in the 14 games he has played alongside Russell this season.
Jonas Valanciunas ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is slightly less productive when Ingram is active, but he has still averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in the games that they have played together. He is likely to play 34-plus minutes tonight against Towns and the Timberwolves if the Pelicans are able to keep the game close.
Rudy Gobert ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) has averaged about 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season and he is likely to play about 32 or 33 minutes tonight against Memphis. He leads the league with 22.3 rebound chances per game and he is tied with Clint Capela for the league lead with 14 total rebounds per game.
Andre Drummond ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is an intriguing GPP option with Harris not expected to play. Drummond has only averaged 25 minutes per game in the games that he has started alongside Harris compared to 35 minutes per game in the games that Harris has joined Embiid on the sidelines. There is no guarantee that Drummond sees an increase in playing time tonight, but Harris’s absence makes it less likely that the Sixers elect to close with a small lineup. Drummond has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute in 223 minutes without Harris or Embiid on the floor this season and he is projected for virtually no ownership in tournaments on DraftKings or FanDuel.
Deandre Ayton ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season and faces the Spurs in what is likely to be a fast-paced game. Since returning from injury, Ayton has played 33, 36, 29 and 26 minutes. The most recent game was a blowout, however, and Ayton should get 30-plus minutes tonight.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[NBAPAGE]
