This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS advice article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 27
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) played 39.9 minutes in the first game of the series and followed it up with 42.4 minutes in the second game. Lillard has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in 36 games alongside C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic this season. In four games with those players active against Denver, including the two postseason games, Lillard has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.1 percent usage rate.
Jrue Holiday ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) played 30.6 minutes in Milwaukee’s blowout win in Game 2 after playing about 37 minutes in regulation in Game 1. Holiday averaged 32.4 minutes per game in 50 regular season games alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton this season, there should be sizable bump in playing time now that it is the postseason. He has a tough matchup against Miami, but he is still priced for his regular season playing time — especially on DraftKings at only $7,600. Holiday averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in the games that he played alongside Antetokounmpo and Middleton this season.
Chris Paul ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is one of the biggest question marks on the slate. If he were fully healthy, he would be one of the best values at any position at his current price point. If he is hurt as badly as he seemed in Game 2, then he is one of the most overpriced players at any position. The Suns aren’t going to give away much information here, so it is basically a guessing game. What is known is that Paul is probable to play and he is going to try and play through it. What is not known, and most likely won’t be known until after the game, is how he is actually feeling and what his production will look like. With that uncertainty, pay attention to ownership and make decisions based on the contest; Awesemo daily fantasy basketball ownership projections have Paul projected for 15 percent ownership on DraftKings and 30 percent ownership on FanDuel.
One other thing to keep in mind is that Cameron Payne ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) is at a price point that is difficult to roster. If he plays 32 minutes like he did last game, he is likely to pay off this salary. But assuming Paul will play more than 23 minutes tonight, it is going to be tough for Payne to justify his price tag. He can be considered in large field GPP lineups that don’t have Paul, but just look elsewhere in smaller-field contests.
Goran Dragic ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) played about 30 minutes in regulation in a competitive Game 1, and he should see similar playing time tonight if the game is close. Dragic averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season and should benefit from a pace-up spot against Milwaukee. Dragic may not get the minutes boost that many players receive in the postseason, but his salary is at a point where he is a reasonable value based on his regular season production and minutes.
Top DraftKings Picks: Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday
Top FanDuel Picks: Damian Lillard, Chris Paul
Shooting Guard
Devin Booker ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) played 45.2 minutes in Game 1 and 40.1 minutes in Game 2. He is likely to be one of the leaders in minutes on tonight’s slate and he is reasonably priced. He has a tough matchup against the Lakers, but he also has some additional upside built in because of the uncertainty around Paul’s health. Booker averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in 822 minutes without Paul on the floor this season compared to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with Paul on the floor. If Paul were fully healthy, Booker would play around 12 minutes without him on the floor. Each additional minute that he misses due to his shoulder injury adds to Booker’s projection.
C.J. McCollum ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) offers a high median projection and ceiling at a very reasonable price tag. McCollum has played 36.5 and 38.1 minutes in the two games of this series so far. During the regular season, McCollum averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games alongside Lillard and Nurkic. In the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, he’s coming in right at 38.72 points tonight.
Donte DiVincenzo ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) isn’t an exciting fantasy producer, but he is priced around his regular season salary and he should play several more minutes per game in the postseason. DiVincenzo only played about 23 minutes in the Game 2 blowout, but he played 32.5 minutes in regulation in Game 1. He averaged 27.1 minutes per game in 48 regular season games alongside Antetokounmpo, Holiday and Middleton, so he should play three to five minutes more than his regular season average. He produced 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in those regular season games.
Top DraftKings Picks: Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum
Top FanDuel Picks: Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/27/2021″ team=”nuggets”]
Small Forward
LeBron James ($9,800 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) has averaged 37.5 minutes per game in the first two games of this series and that is a reasonable expectation going forward. He certainly has the potential to play 38 to 40 minutes in any given game, however. James leads the Lakers with 14 potential assists per game in this series and he is third behind Andre Drummond and Anthony Davis with 8.5 rebound chances per game. For the season, James has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.8 percent usage rate and 38.8 percent assist rate in 27 games played alongside Davis.
Jimmy Butler ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) stands out as a glaring value tonight after playing nearly 41 minutes in regulation in Game 1 and about 31 minutes through three quarters of Game 2. Butler had an excellent regular season, producing 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in 32 games played with Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo active. There is a big enough gap between Butler and James that there are no issues using Butler if there is not enough salary to upgrade to James. Butler is the No. 2 overall value in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Khris Middleton ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) will be difficult to prioritize on DraftKings since he is priced so closely to Butler, but he stands out as a top option on FanDuel at a $1,400 discount. Middleton averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 50 games alongside Antetokounmpo and Holiday this season and he played about 40 minutes in regulation in Game 1 of this series.
Norman Powell ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) offers some salary relief, especially on DraftKings where he has guard and forward eligibility at only $5,400. Powell dealt with foul trouble and a blowout in Game 2, but he played 36.6 minutes in the first game of the series. Since joining the Blazers, Powell has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute.
Mikal Bridges ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) only played 26.7 minutes in Game 2 but he logged 40.5 minutes in the first game of the series. Bridges averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, so if he approaches 40 minutes tonight, he is likely to pay off his salary and allow us to roster higher-upside players elsewhere. You shouldn’t have much confidence in Bridges if you roster him, but he is likely to be a useful final piece of lineups.
Top DraftKings Picks: LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Norman Powell
Top FanDuel Picks: LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against Miami but he is one of the best per-minute fantasy producers in the league and he is likely to exceed his season average playing time. He played about 40 minutes in regulation during Game 1 and it appears that Mike Budenholzer is going to have a longer leash on Giannis’s minutes this postseason than he did last postseason when he decided he would rather lose a series than extend his minutes. Antetokounmpo averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and he has averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in five games against Miami including the postseason.
Anthony Davis ($9,700 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) played 27 games with LeBron James active this season and averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Davis is reasonably priced for that level of production assuming that he will play 38 to 40 minutes tonight against Phoenix. The problem with Davis’s salary is that it is too close to James and Antetokounmpo, who are better fantasy producers with similar minutes projections.
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and 32.8 minutes per game in 12 games without Jamal Murray or Will Barton this season. So far in the series against Portland, he has played 37.4 and 32.8 minutes (with the latter coming in the Game 2 blowout). Porter’s salary is very reasonable for 36-plus minutes against a weak Portland defense if this game is competitive.
Robert Covington ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) only averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games with Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic active this season, but he also averaged 31.6 minutes per game. He has played 34.2 and 37.2 minutes in the first two games of this series, so he should continue to exceed his average playing time from the regular season. It is difficult to find inexpensive players that offer consistent playing time in the postseason, and for that reason, Covington is one of the better point-per-dollar values tonight in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Top DraftKings Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Porter, Robert Covington
Top FanDuel Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Porter, Robert Covington
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,700 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) played 13 games without Murray or Barton this season. In those games, Jokic averaged 1.73 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.5 percent usage rate, 19 percent rebounding rate and 37.4 percent assist rate. He is one of the top pay-up options tonight, as is usually the case when he plays. There are a couple of minor concerns for Jokic. First, he hasn’t played 36 minutes or more in either game of the series. He is certainly capable of doing so, but his playing time projection is slightly lower than some other stars as a result. Second, there is a massive amount of upside at the center position tonight whereas other positions don’t have as much mid-range talent so there is an argument for paying up elsewhere. Still, despite those concerns, Jokic is one of the top options on tonight’s slate.
Bam Adebayo ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is one of the high-upside, mid-range options at center tonight. He played 35.6 minutes in regulation in the series opener, and during the regular season, he averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 48 games alongside Jimmy Butler. Adebayo will be needed defensively to protect the rim against Antetokounmpo, so he should play a lot again tonight in a pace-up spot.
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) fouled out in 24.6 minutes last game after playing 32.9 minutes in the first game of the series. Assuming he can avoid trouble, Nurkic should play another 32 to 34 minutes tonight at a reasonable salary — especially on DraftKings. Nurkic averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in 34 games with Lillard and McCollum active this season, so the only concern is his playing time relative to other options at the position.
DeAndre Ayton ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has played well in the first two games of the series with the Lakers and his salary hasn’t adjusted on DraftKings. He is more appropriately priced on FanDuel, but he is a reasonable option there as well. Ayton played 36.7 minutes in the first game of the series despite dealing with first half foul trouble and he followed it up with 42.2 minutes in the second game. Ayton averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 64 games with Booker and Paul active this season. The Suns’ big man sits at the No. 1 spot in terms of overall value plays on the slate, according to Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Top DraftKings Picks: Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, DeAndre Ayton
Top FanDuel Picks: Nikola Jokic, Bam Adebayo, DeAndre Ayton
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