NBA DFS Deep Dive for DraftKings & FanDuel | Tuesday, 1/19 (FREE THIS SEASON)

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.

[CONOR]

[SportsbookAffiliates]

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 19

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-10): 220

Oklahoma City Thunder

Al Horford is still out for the Thunder, which means that we should get another start from Isaiah Roby.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a boom or bust option this season and I expect that to continue. His salary is higher than normal for tonight’s two-game slate but, since we have fewer options overall, he still has some appeal. He has averaged 33.9 minutes per game this season with 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. He leads Oklahoma City with a 25.7 percent usage rate and 30.1 percent assist rate. He is a little more expensive than I would like for his wide range of outcomes, but he still has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.

Darius Bazley only played 27.6 minutes against the Bulls on Friday but he has averaged 29.6 minutes per game this season and typically approaches 32 or 33 minutes in competitive games. He isn’t a high-usage player with only an 18.4 percent usage rate this season, but he does also have a 13.4 percent rebounding rate and he has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. With many players priced higher than normal because of the short slate, Bazley has some value as a relatively high upside tournament option.

Luguentz Dort, George Hill and Roby carry some value as well due to the lack of alternatives. Dort played 39.8 minutes on Friday, with 34.8 minutes coming in regulation. He has only averaged 28.6 minutes per game and 0.78 DraftKings points per minute this season, but there is room for him to get more playing time when he is playing well. Hill played 27.9 minutes in regulation against Chicago and that’s pretty much the high end of what we can expect from him. That said, he’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and value is tough to come by on this slate.

Roby has averaged 26 minutes per game and 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in his three starts this season. Overall, he has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He will have his hands full with Nikola Jokic tonight but, assuming he can stay on the floor, he looks like one of the better point-per-dollar values again tonight- especially because he has power forward eligibility. Mike Muscala has been Roby’s back-up and they typically combine to play about 48 minutes. Muscala is only $3,400 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel. He has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points and 21.7 minutes per game in the three games without Horford this season. He would likely see an uptick in playing time if Roby gets in foul trouble, but he projects as a decent value even in 21 to 22 minutes. The biggest issue with Muscala is that he is only center eligible on DraftKings.

If you want to take a risk in tournaments, Hamidou Diallo has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 20.4 minutes per game this season. I don’t expect him to continue producing 1.10 points per minute because he has shot much better this season than his career averages, but we do know that the Thunder are short on good players and, when Diallo plays well, he can steal minutes from Hill and/or Dort. His salary is too expensive for his average production, but he has shown 40-plus point upside this season and it’s pretty tough to find inexpensive guys with a legitimate ceiling on a two-game slate.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,700), George Hill ($4,300), Isaiah Roby ($4,100), Mike Muscala ($3,400)

Top FanDuel DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,600), Darius Bazley ($5,200), Isaiah Roby ($4,500)

Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. remains out for the Nuggets so Will Barton should stay in the starting lineup.

Jokic is the only player priced above $9,100 on DraftKings and $8,600 on FanDuel tonight, so we don’t have any alternatives to look to for the highest ceiling on the slate. Value is limited tonight so it may be relatively difficult to get to Jokic, but he should still be a priority since there just aren’t any other players that have the same potential as him on this slate. He has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute and 35.5 minutes per game this season. Jokic leads the team in usage rate, rebounding percent and assist rate. He currently ranks sixth in potential assists per game, eighth in rebound chances per game and 14^th in points per game in the NBA. The matchup against Oklahoma City isn’t a concern as they are 13^th in pace and 19^th in defensive rating this season and are missing their starting center.

The Nuggets have the highest implied total on the slate so, if we can’t afford Jokic, it makes sense to look to other pieces and hope that they have a big game and Jokic is relatively disappointing. The first place to look is Jamal Murray as he has the highest ceiling on the team other than Jokic. Murray’s rates are down across the board this season as Jokic is playing more minutes than last season and it is hurting Murray’s production. That doesn’t mean that Murray can’t still have big games, however, it just means they will be less frequent. Murray is second on the team with a 24.7 percent usage rate and he has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He leads the team with 35.8 minutes per game. Barton is the next guy in line for scoring production behind Jokic and Murray. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and 29.9 minutes per game in nine starts this season. Like Murray, his per-minute production is hurt by playing more minutes alongside Jokic, but he does give us an option at a weak small forward position.

There are value options on Denver as well, it’s just a guessing game as far as who will be the best option. Monte Morris has averaged 26.3 minutes per game this season, which leads all of Denver’s bench players. He is getting back-up point guard minutes and also playing plenty of minutes alongside Murray. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a solid point-per-dollar value with a similar outlook to George Hill on the other side of this game.

JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap have been close to interchangeable this season. Millsap’s playing time was consistent early in the season, but it’s been tough to trust since Green returned from injury. Millsap has averaged 21.9 minutes per game in nine games with Green active this season while Green has averaged 21.3 minutes per game. Green has been the better per-minute fantasy producer with 1.04 DraftKings points per minute compared to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute for Millsap. Muddying the waters for Millsap and Green, however, is P.J. Dozier. Dozier can play multiple positions and sometimes we see Mike Malone use him in place of Green or Millsap, as was the case to close Denver’s last game against Utah. Dozier played 27.9 minutes in that game and has averaged 22.2 minutes per game since Green returned to the lineup. He has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season and is the least expensive of the trio.

Whenever we are in a position where we need to hope to get lucky on our guess about a value play, it’s important to use groups to put ourselves in the best position to be right. There are essentially three spots available in the closing lineup that will go to a combination of Gary Harris, Barton, Green, Millsap, Morris and Dozier.  Green and Millsap have played zero possessions together alongside Murray and Jokic this season, so it’s extremely unlikely they both close and I would be hesitant to roster them together. It is also unlikely that all three of Morris, Harris and Barton are in the lineup as they have played just 13 possessions alongside Murray and Jokic this season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,000), Jamal Murray ($7,300), Monte Morris ($4,200)

Top FanDuel DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,500), Jamal Murray ($7,800), JaMychal Green ($4,400)

• FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | De’Aaron Fox (April 19)
• DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Domantas Sabonis (April 19)
• NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Play-In Tournament Day 2! (April 17)
• NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Play-In Tournament Day 1! (April 16)
• PrizePicks, Sleeper & Underdog Cheat Sheet: Best More/Less Picks Today for NBA, MLB & NHL (April 14)
• Stokastic DFS on Youtube

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz (-6): 217.5

New Orleans Pelicans

Lonzo Ball is probable tonight after missing the last couple of games for New Orleans.

Ball’s return takes away some of the value that the Pelicans have offered in recent games as Nickeil Alexander-Walker is unlikely to play enough minutes to be useful and Eric Bledsoe will go back to his inconsistent role as the third scoring option and the third facilitating option with the starting unit. Ball himself is an interesting option in tournaments if he isn’t going to be limited since he is only $6,300 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel. He has only averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, but his ability to contribute in every statistical category gives him a higher ceiling than most players at his price point and he is second on the team with 33.4 minutes per game this season.

Brandon Ingram’s salary continues to rise, making him a riskier option than he has been for most of the season. He still brings a high ceiling to the table since he leads the team in minutes per game, usage rate, assists rate and DraftKings points per minute, but the margin for error is smaller due to the increased salary.

Zion Williamson is more scoring dependent than we would like for a player of his caliber, but he does have a 29.7 percent usage rate and he’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season in 32.3 minutes per game. He’s not a bad consolation prize if you can’t find the money for Ingram.

I have some interest in Steven Adams tonight, particularly if he isn’t getting much ownership. The opportunity cost at center isn’t as high as usual since we only have two games, which should make it easier to justify rostering Adams. He has averaged 31.2 minutes per game this season and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. The matchup against Rudy Gobert suggests that Adams could play more minutes than normal, as I would expect New Orleans to want him on the floor whenever Gobert is playing. Adams has produced 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in seven meetings with Gobert over the last three seasons, matching his average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over that time, so I think this is a spot where he is likely to maintain his average production while playing more than his average number of minutes.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($9,100), Zion Williamson ($7,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,400), Zion Williamson ($7,800), Steven Adams ($5,800), Lonzo Ball ($5,500)

Utah Jazz

Joe Ingles is questionable and Derrick Favors is probable. Jordan Clarkson gets a bump if Ingles is out as Clarkson has averaged 30.2 minutes per game in four games without Ingles compared to 22.7 minutes per game in nine games with Ingles active.

Donovan Mitchell and Gobert stand out as strong mid-range options on this slate. They offer a combination of value and upside that is difficult to find in the mid-range, particularly on DraftKings where players like Gilgeous-Alexander and Ingram are priced up more than they are on FanDuel. Mitchell started this season off slowly, but his true shooting rate is making its way back toward his career average. He’s still slightly below his career mark and I expect that we see it continue to climb as the season goes forward. Mitchell leads the Jazz with 33.5 minutes per game and he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. He leads the team with a 31.9 percent usage rate and he is second with a 25.1 percent assist rate.

Gobert leads the team with 1.20 DraftKings points per minute and he is third with 30.4 minutes per game. We typically get 33 to 34 minutes in competitive games and I expect that to be the case tonight against Steven Adams and the Pelicans assuming the game is close. Gobert has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in seven games against Adams over the last three seasons compared to his average of 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over that time.

Mike Conley has been very productive this season, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. He has only averaged 30.1 minutes per game, however, so he doesn’t project as a great play at his salary. That said, there is a lot of value in finding above average per-minute producers on slates like this that have limited value. It is relatively easy for those players to put up bigger performances than expected since they only need to play a few more minutes than average to do so. Conley is third on the team with a 23.9 percent usage rate and leads the team with a 30.2 percent assist rate.

I mentioned Clarkson at the beginning and he will be the main beneficiary if Ingles misses this game. Clarkson has averaged about 30 minutes per game without Ingles this season and a couple of those games were blowouts where Clarkson looked poised to play several more minutes. He has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season and is second on the team with a 26.6 percent usage rate. His salary has increased to a point where he is only viable if Ingles misses the game.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200), Rudy Gobert ($7,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200), Rudy Gobert ($8,500)

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy basketball and NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.