This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks today for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 16
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Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,900 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) is at a more expensive price tag after he posted 61 DraftKings points against the 76ers in his last game. That was the most fantasy points that Young has scored in a game this postseason and he didn’t even need to shoot well to get it done as he shot 30.8 percent from the field and 27.3 percent from three. While it is obvious that Young has an extremely high ceiling, there is still reason for concern at his elevated salary. In the three games since the 76ers began using Ben Simmons as Young’s primary defender, he has shot just 38.9 percent from the field and has an average usage rate of 29.9 percent which is several points lower than his season average. His potential assists have increased, however, as he has averaged 21.9 potential assists per 36 minutes in those three games compared to 17.8 potential assists per 36 minutes in the other six games that he has played this postseason. Young is a strong option despite the difficult matchup, but he looks more like a luxury than a necessity given his salary and the fact that pricing on the Clippers has not been adjusted for Kawhi Leonard’s absence.
Ben Simmons ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) struggled to rebound in the first three games of the series but he made up for it in his last game with 12 rebounds in 36 minutes of play. Simmons is an inconsistent fantasy option because he doesn’t score at a high rate, but he does give us a high ceiling because of his rebounding and assist upside. He is more valuable on DraftKings because the scoring system rewards double-doubles and triple-doubles and because he is less expensive than he is on FanDuel. Through the first four games of this series, Simmons has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with 12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists in 35.5 minutes per game.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,300 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) played 30.2 minutes off the bench in his last game and he will once again benefit from Mike Conley’s absence. Clarkson has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute and 29.1 minutes per game with a 26.8 percent usage rate through the first four games of this series. During the regular season, Clarkson produced 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 28.3 minutes per game in 10 games without Conley and with Donovan Mitchell. He also had a 23.9 percent assist rate in those games compared to about 12 percent so far in this series. It makes sense for Clarkson’s average rates to decrease in the postseason as Mitchell plays more minutes and takes on an even bigger role offensively, but the regular season numbers are a reminder that Clarkson’s ceiling is considerably higher.
Reggie Jackson ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) has averaged 27.7 minutes per game and 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in four games against Utah this postseason. In his nine total starts this postseason, Jackson has averaged 30 minutes per game and 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. There is more playing time and more usage available tonight due to Kawhi Leonard’s absence as well.
Patrick Beverley ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is one candidate to replace Leonard in the starting lineup. Beverley has played at least 20 minutes in two of his last three games and remains minimum salary, or close to it. He isn’t a great fantasy producer, but if he starts, he is likely to play at least 24 or 25 minutes. During the regular season, Beverley produced 0.80 DraftKings points per minute which would make him a strong value at his current salary. If he comes off the bench, he is still worth a look as a value option, but his playing time will be slightly more volatile.
Top DraftKings Picks: Trae Young, Ben Simmons, Reggie Jackson
Top FanDuel Picks: Trae Young, Jordan Clarkson, Reggie Jackson
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) is the most expensive option at an absolutely loaded shooting guard position tonight. Mitchell has been excellent so far against the Clippers, both in real life and in DFS. Through the first four games of the series, Mitchell has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute and 37 minutes per game with a 42.6 percent usage rate and 28.6 percent assist rate. Mitchell has been under-owned on most slates, and he is arguably the best play again tonight as he continues to play without Mike Conley. Kawhi Leonard’s absence could also make life a bit easier for Mitchell on the offensive end.
Paul George ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) has been one of the most popular options on most slates that he has been active, and his price point hasn’t increased. Now, he also won’t have to contend with Kawhi Leonard for shots and the offense will run entirely through him. George has averaged 39.7 minutes per game in this series and there could be several more minutes tonight if the game is competitive. George averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.6 percent usage rate in 43 games alongside Leonard this season compared to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.5 percent usage rate in 11 games without Leonard. George has been over-owned on most slates relative to Mitchell, but he is much closer to Mitchell tonight now that Leonard is sidelined.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is clearly underpriced for the number of minutes that he is likely to play. He has played about 41, 39 and 42 minutes in his last three games. While he has struggled to produce fantasy points, averaging only 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in this series, his 22.8 percent usage rate is higher than his usage rate during the regular season, so he is getting plenty of opportunities. Bogdanovic has shot just 36.1 percent from three and 41.4 percent from the field in this series, compared to 43.8 percent from three and 47.3 percent from the field during the regular season. While it is true that the 76ers are one of the most efficient defensive teams in the league, Bogdanovic’s field-goal percentage should increase as the sample size grows larger.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/16/2021″ team=”hawks”]
Joe Ingles ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) will be difficult to prioritize because of the options listed above him, but he still offers some value with Mike Conley sidelined. Ingles has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and 30.2 minutes per game through the first four games of the series. Overall this season, including the postseason, Ingles has produced 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 30.2 minutes per game.
Seth Curry ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is a secondary option at this position, but he still offers value at his current price. Curry played 35.1 minutes in his first game without Danny Green, and he has now played at least 32 minutes in three of the four games against Atlanta. Curry has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in those games.
Kevin Huerter ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) is similar to Curry in that he is slightly underpriced for his average production, but he is less underpriced than other options at the position. Huerter joined Atlanta’s starting lineup last game and played slightly more than 35 minutes. Huerter has started 42 games in which Trae Young was active this season, including the postseason, and has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 33.2 minutes per game.
Furkan Korkmaz ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) started in place of Green last game and played 25.1 minutes. Korkmaz will play 24 to 28 minutes if he starts. To some extent, his playing time will be affected by game flow since it is likely that the 76ers give more minutes to Matisse Thybulle if they are winning late in the fourth quarter. Korkmaz has produced 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in 350 minutes alongside Joel Embiid this season, including the postseason.
Terance Mann ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) has benefitted from the Clippers’ small lineups recently, playing 22 and 15 minutes in his last two games. He could possibly start tonight, but even if he doesn’t, he should get decent run off the bench. He will be a risky option if he comes off the bench since there are a variety of ways that the rotation can go, but he is minimum salary and has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season, including the postseason. If you are playing the single game showdown, Mann is only $1,000 on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings Picks: Donovan Mitchell, Paul George, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Top FanDuel Picks: Donovan Mitchell, Paul George, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Small Forward
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) is a mediocre option on DraftKings but one of the top options on FanDuel with their two small forwards. Bogdanovic has averaged 0.68 DraftKings points per minute and 37.8 minutes per game in the four games against the Clippers. His usage rate is about five points lower in this series than it was during the regular season, though it could increase some with Leonard sidelined since Bogdanovic has been tasked with slowing down Leonard and spending energy on the defensive end for stretches during the series.
Nicolas Batum ($4,600 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has averaged 29.4 minutes per game in three starts against Utah in this series and 33.7 minutes per game in seven total starts this postseason. In those seven starts, Batum has produced 0.78 DraftKings points per minute. In 38 starts during the regular season, Batum averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute.
Danilo Gallinari ($4,300 PF DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) does not have small forward eligibility on DraftKings, but he does on FanDuel, and he will be a useful option since there is so little to choose from. Gallinari’s playing time has been inconsistent this series, playing 18, 26, 30 and 23 minutes in the first four games. Gallinari has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in this series and he averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in the regular season. If his shot is falling, he is likely to see the upper end of his minutes range.
Matisse Thybulle ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) played 21.3 minutes off the bench in his first postseason game without Danny Green, but as mentioned earlier when discussing Korkmaz, Thybulle could get more playing time if the 76ers are playing with a lead since he is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Of course, his lack of offense makes him a difficult player to trust in DFS regardless of his playing time, but minutes are still valuable for a player that is close to the minimum salary — especially on FanDuel where the opportunity cost at the position is nearly non-existent. Thybulle has produced 0.56 DraftKings points per minute against Atlanta so far this postseason and he averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute in 65 games during the regular season.
Top DraftKings Picks: Nicolas Batum, Use Multi-position eligible players
Top FanDuel Picks: Bojan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) is appropriately priced, but the power forward position is relatively weak (though not nearly as weak as the small forward position), so he offers some appeal. Harris has produced at a similar rate against Atlanta as he did during the regular season, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in 37.5 minutes per game. Harris does have a little bit of hidden upside as well because he will be one of the biggest beneficiaries on the 76ers in the non-zero chance that Embiid starts the game but is unable to finish it.
John Collins ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) had his best DFS game of the postseason last game as he produced 36 DraftKings points in about 37 minutes of play. Collins has now averaged 34.6 minutes per game and 0.90 DraftKings points per minute in this series. While his usage rate is still a couple of points lower against the 76ers than it was during the regular season, it is higher than it was last series against the Knicks. His rebounding rate is also at 13.7 percent, which is slightly higher than it was during the regular season and several points higher than it was against New York.
Royce O’Neale ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has only produced 0.64 DraftKings points per minute in the series against the Clippers, but he has also averaged 37.2 minutes per game. It is difficult to find inexpensive options that are likely to approach 40 minutes in a competitive game, so O’Neale is worth a look despite coming into the game with a 9.9 percent usage rate in the series.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/16/2021″ team=”jazz”]
Marcus Morris ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) has been inconsistent in the postseason, but he looks like the best value option at the position — particularly on DraftKings. Morris has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and 31.7 minutes per game against Utah this postseason and he produced 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in 29 games started during the regular season. In six starts alongside George without Leonard, Morris averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with a 22 percent usage rate compared to 0.81 DraftKings points per minute with a 19 percent usage rate in 17 starts alongside both stars.
Top DraftKings Picks: John Collins, Marcus Morris
Top FanDuel Picks: John Collins, Marcus Morris
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) carries some risk tonight as he appeared to aggravate his knee injury last game. He briefly went to the locker room in the first half and then missed every field goal attempt in the second half. He is listed as questionable tonight. He should play and be close to full strength, but it is important to understand that there is some additional risk here. So far against Atlanta, Embiid has produced 1.66 DraftKings points per minute and has averaged 35.7 minutes per game.
Rudy Gobert ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is coming off another disappointing game as he produced just 23 DraftKings points in 32 minutes. He has only averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in the three games that the Clippers have started small compared to a more normal 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in the one game that the Clippers started Ivica Zubac. Zubac could start tonight in place of Leonard, which would allow us to feel a little bit better about Gobert, but he will bounce back sooner than later even if the Clippers continue to play small ball. In the first couple of games that the Clippers played small, Gobert’s rebound chances per 36 minutes and average rebound distance were about the same as his regular season averages, yet he averaged about three less rebounds per game. The numbers from last game are more concerning as he had about six fewer rebound chances per 36 minutes and his average rebound distance was nearly two feet further than normal. Essentially, there is more risk for Gobert if the Clippers start small, but his per-minute production should increase from where it has been so far in this series regardless of what the Clippers do.
Clint Capela ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) has averaged 30.9 minutes per game and 0.96 DraftKings points per minute so far against the 76ers as he continues to struggle to produce fantasy points in the postseason. Capela averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, but his usage rate and rebounding rate in the postseason, and also against Philadelphia specifically, are four to five points lower than they were during the regular season. Capela’s falling price tag makes him an intriguing option in tournaments, but there isn’t anything in his numbers that makes me think he is going to bounce back to his regular season production anytime soon since his rates are lower across the board.
Ivica Zubac ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) has played 20, 14 and 18 minutes off the bench in this series. He played about 13 minutes in the game that he started, though he dealt with some foul trouble. There is a chance that he joins the starting lineup tonight as he was the Clippers’ substitute when Leonard was injured in the fourth quarter of the last game. If he starts, he projects as one of the best values on the slate since he should play a couple more minutes than normal. If he comes off the bench, he still offers value, but he carries a bit more risk since players like Beverley, Mann and Luke Kennard could soak up most of Leonard’s minutes. Even if he starts, Zubac is risky, it is just that he is riskier if he comes off the bench. He is a productive per-minute producer, however, as he has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute against Utah in this series and he produced 0.99 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season.
Top DraftKings Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, Ivica Zubac
Top FanDuel Picks: Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert, Ivica Zubac
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