NBA DFS: Thursday's Expert Analysis and DraftKings & FanDuel Picks

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Adam and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.

Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.

[DAYTONA]

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings & FanDuel Picks | February 11

Toronto Raptors (+3) at Boston Celtics (222.5)

NBA DFS Picks for Toronto Raptors (109.75)

The Raptors play their second of a back-to-back following a blowout road win over the Wizards last night. Fred VanVleet, who over his last 10 games was producing 1.18 DraftKings points per minute, wasn’t asked to do much in the win (14/4/7) but should be more involved tonight as a 3-point dog in Boston. An elevated price point keeps him from being a top option, though, facing a Celtics team that’s playing at a bottom five pace and allowing the eighth lowest 3PT% over the past month. Kyle Lowry is averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and can be had at a steep discount from VanVleet. The benefit of rostering Raptors starters is they’ll play close to 40 minutes in competitive games.

O.G. Anunoby is questionable to play on Thursday, which in the event that he returns would essentially cut Norman Powell’s minutes in half. Even if Anunoby sits, Powell’s price point has become a bit prohibitive. He’s shooting well (22.9% usage is highest of his career) and getting consistent playing time, but rebounds at a 5.5 percent clip and is dishing out assists at only 8.4 percent.

Pascal Siakam leads Toronto with a 25.5 percent usage rate and has provided solid enough peripherals with 20.3 percent assists and 11.8 percent rebounding. He doesn’t separate himself enough from the rest of the Raptors starters, though, which keeps him from being a core play on most nights. He’s fine at $8,000 on DraftKings but $9,600 on FanDuel there are far better options.

No one produces fantasy points at a higher clip than Chris Boucher (1.27 DraftKings points per minute). No one deals with the same volatility in playing time, either. That said, Boucher is averaging north of 28 minutes per game over his last four and would’ve closed out Wednesday’s game had the Raptors not been up by 24 points. He makes for a strong tournament option again at $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks for Boston Celtics (112.75)

Kemba Walker has logged 30-plus minutes in four straight games now but has shot miserably over his last two (6-for-32). It shouldn’t keep us from loading up on him tonight at $5,500 on FanDuel, especially considering he’s still producing 1.02 FanDuel points per minute on the season with 28.2 percent usage and 25.3 percent assists. Walker can’t keep shooting this poorly forever, and it doesn’t hurt to know that the Raptors are playing at a top 12 pace and rank 18th in defensive rating this season. Walker is still a strong option on DraftKings, but he’s a clear top play on FanDuel.

Jaylen Brown is pacing the Celtics with 1.27 DraftKings points per minute produced on the year, and is still churning out 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with both Jayson Tatum and Walker on the floor. In the limited amount of time the three of them have played alongside each other this season, all are sporting a usage rate between 26-27 percent. Tatum is averaging 22.6 field goals per game over his last 10 starts, but he’s $1,200 more expensive than Brown on DraftKings, who isn’t far behind. Walker and Brown are the top options from the Celtics, but Tatum’s 31 percent usage, 20 percent assists and 10 percent rebounding is hard to overlook. You can’t go wrong with any of Boston’s Big Three in what should be a competitive meeting with the Raptors.

Daniel Theis has seen his minutes tick up considerably of late, averaging 30.8 minutes in the last five games that he played to completion. He’s producing a respectable 0.89 DraftKings points per minute on the year, which is enough to earn some love at $4,900 on FanDuel and DraftKings. You’re mostly hoping he falls into some peripheral stats and continues knocking down threes at an elite clip (49.9%). The large majority of Theis’ shots are coming around the rim or from beyond the arc, which makes his low shot volume easier to stomach.

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Miami Heat (-2) at Houston Rockets (216)

NBA DFS Picks for NBA DFS Picks for Miami Heat (109)

Jimmy Butler has been on a tear in five starts since returning to the rotation, averaging a team-leading 21.8 points, 8.3 assists and 8.3 rebounds (second behind Bam Adebayo) across 34 minutes per game. He’s averaging 12 trips to the free throw line over that span and has been super aggressive with 19.3 drives per game. He’s flirting with triple-doubles every night, which adds to his value on DraftKings, and is justifiably getting ownership on both sites.

Tyler Herro is a much more appealing option coming off the bench, as Erik Spoelstra is providing him with around 12 to 15 minutes per game with Butler off the floor. Herro averages only 0.75 DraftKings points per minute alongside Butler and Adebayo but that number jumps to 1.02 with both of them on the sidelines. $5,800 on FanDuel makes sense on an abbreviated slate.

Adebayo is one of the most versatile big men in basketball, sporting a 24.6 percent usage rate with 15.4 percent rebounds and 26.6 percent assists. He’s also blocking shots at a 3.2 percent clip. While Houston’s defense has been markedly better since James Harden’s departure, they’re still playing at a top three pace and lack quality interior defense. Adebayo is a strong option at $9,000 on FanDuel and is currently pulling ownership around 23 percent.

Andre Iguodala is dirt cheap and makes for a decent filler play if more value doesn’t open up throughout the day. Duncan Robinson, meanwhile, is actually getting some ownership on DraftKings (16%) but is solely dependent on scoring to fuel his fantasy totals and is averaging 0.66 DraftKings points per minute on 15.3 percent usage this season. Robinson will need to rain down threes against the Rockets in order to get anywhere close to having a significant impact in tournaments.

Kendrick Nunn should draw another start with Goran Dragic sidelined, but is priced out of consideration on DraftKings. $5,000 on FanDuel makes sense as a last man in, but we shouldn’t expect much shot volume playing alongside Butler, Adebayo and Herro when those two are off the floor.

NBA DFS Picks for Houston Rockets (107)

John Wall has only played 101 minutes next to Victor Oladipo this season, but he’s been spectacular in that limited run, averaging 1.70 DraftKings points per minute on 41.9 percent usage and 51.2 percent assists. Those rates clearly aren’t sustainable, but Wall should continue to be the clear no.1 in this offense. The ownership he’s garnering on DraftKings (27.7%) is well deserved at $7,100. He’s an easy play over Oladipo at a $700 discount.

DeMarcus Cousins’ last two starts have been a colossal disappointment, as he could get nothing going offensively and the Rockets got smoked in both games. I have some concerns about Cousins losing playing time even with Christian Wood sidelined, but he’s still a 1.29 DraftKings points per minute producer on the season, rebounds at an elite clip and is a more than talented passer for his position. Few big men are as capable of packing the box score with fantasy-relevant stats as Cousins, so there’s still a ton of upside in rostering him at $6,900 on DraftKings and especially $6,000 on FanDuel. There will undoubtedly be some hesitation to roster a player who has been a chalk bust in back-to-back games, which makes him that much more appealing in tournaments.

The rest of Houston is largely unappealing. P.J. Tucker is cheap on a short slate and Eric Gordon continues to shoot well from the field. Neither are primary options on either site, though.

Indiana Pacers (-3) at Detroit Pistons (216.5)

NBA DFS Picks for Indiana Pacers (109.75)

The Pacers put on an embarrassing display of basketball last night inside the Barclays Center, failing to score 100 points against a Nets team that couldn’t stop a nosebleed prior to Wednesday’s double-digit win. That’s no reason not to go back to Malcolm Brogdon, though, seeing that he’s $7,200 on FanDuel and $7,500 on DraftKings in a strong matchup against the Pistons. Brogdon hasn’t shot well lately, and it’s translated to a dip in fantasy production, but shooting slumps don’t last forever. Brogdon still leads all Pacers starters with a 27.1 percent usage rate and 29.7 percent assist rate (without Oladipo) and is averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute on the year. He’s also averaging the ninth most minutes played per game in the NBA this season.

Speaking of playing time, only four players are averaging more minutes than Domantas Sabonis this season. The absurdly versatile big man is averaging 98 touches (second most in the league behind only Nikola Jokic), while also averaging 20.3 rebound chances and 10.2 potential assists across 36 minutes per game. In case you were unsure, those are bizarre numbers for a player at his position. So long as he remains below $9,000 on DraftKings it’ll be hard to ignore him in any format. There’s no way the ghost of Blake Griffin and Mason Plumlee will be able to put the clamps on Sabonis tonight.

There are a lot of great center options on Thursday which keeps Myles Turner from being anything more than a secondary play.

NBA DFS Picks for Detroit Pistons (106.75)

Jerami Grant went from being overpriced on DraftKings to underpriced in the matter of a couple weeks. Get this: the same Grant that averaged less than 10 points per game through his eight-year career prior to this season, is now averaging more points than Donovan Mitchell, Harden, Devin Booker and Zion Williamson. He’s now tied a career high in scoring (32) in back-to-back games, and leads Detroit with 1.11 DraftKings points per minute produced on the year. With Derrick Rose shipped to New York, the Pistons will need to lean even heavier on Grant to manufacture offense. He’s easily the top option for Detroit tonight.

Griffin couldn’t even get the engine started for one night against a bottom-feeding Nets defense the other night, so forgive me for having little faith in the veteran big man to come through for us tonight. He’s averaging 23.3 DraftKings points over his last 10 starts and owns a sub-20 percent usage rate for the first time in his illustrious career. He’s at least worth a look on FanDuel where his price has plummeted to $5,100, but he’s strictly a price play who I have little to no confidence in this evening. Saddiq Bey actually closed out Tuesday’s win ahead of Griffin.

Plumlee is a tougher play on a night where the center position is loaded with quality options, but the veteran big man is logging huge minutes in the starting lineup with equally voluminous fantasy totals. I actually think Plumlee is underpriced on DraftKings at $6,100 if he’s going to continue seeing 35-plus minutes per game. Plumlee averages north of a fantasy point per minute (1.02), and while his usage is only 16.7 percent, he makes up for it in spades with an 18.1 percent rebound rate and 17.4 percent assist rate. He’s a legitimate double-double threat on a nightly basis who passes well and blocks shots at a respectable clip.

Delon Wright and Josh Jackson should continue to benefit from Rose’s departure, but Wright is a bit pricey and it isn’t looking like Jackson will get enough opportunities as the Pistons’ backup point guard to have much value.

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Orlando Magic (+7.5) at Golden State Warriors (225)

NBA DFS Picks for Orlando Magic (108.75)

The Magic have been a chalky team of late due to myriad injuries throughout the starting lineup, but that will change tonight if Evan Fournier and Cole Anthony are active. Nikola Vucevic is still underpriced on DraftKings and becomes an even better play if Fournier remains sidelined but doesn’t have the same appeal on FanDuel.

Fournier is averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute on 28.3 percent usage and 29.8 percent assists across 166 minutes with Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams off the floor this season. He’s a nice mid-range guard option against a Warriors team that plays at the second fastest pace in basketball this season. A healthy Anthony also serves as a strong play who will be tasked with running the point for Orlando in a game that boasts a 225-point total.

If Fournier and Anthony are both unable to suit up, Frank Mason would almost certainly be locked into big minutes at the point. He played more than 20 minutes in the second half when Anthony went down in the final minute of the second quarter last game and would become one of the only healthy guards on the roster capable of directing traffic in the Magic offense. Even if just Anthony sits, Mason should see enough minutes to warrant consideration at his price.

NBA DFS Picks for Golden State Warriors (116.25)

The Warriors opened as 5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook last night which seemed really low. Orlando owns the worst offense in the league over the last month (104.4 ORTG) and rank 23rd in defense over that span (115.2 defensive rating). They are now 7.5-point dogs in Golden State. I have some worries that this game doesn’t stay close like many recent games the Magic has been involved in, but that won’t keep the field from targeting some mid-range value from the Warriors tonight.

Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are projected to be the two highest owned Warriors on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Both have been serviceable over the past month, averaging 0.96 and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute, respectively, while having near identical assist and usage rates over that span. There’s just nothing exciting about either of them, as Wiggins has posted fewer than 35 DraftKings points in 18 of 21 games since the start of January, and Oubre owns an absolute rock bottom floor despite producing some strong games of late. Oubre has been the higher ceiling player, though, which gives him the edge over Wiggins in tournaments.

Stephen Curry always makes for the top option for Golden State even if it isn’t reflected in his ownership. He leads the team by a wide margin in usage (31.1%) and per-minute production (1.44) this season, while dishing out assists at a near 30 percent clip. Where Curry takes a hit compared to other top-tier players is his playing time; he’s averaging just over 33 minutes per game across 25 starts, which is perfectly fine, but not towards the top of the league. It’s worth noting, however, that Curry has been involved in a lot of blowouts this season, with a whopping 17 games being decided by 10-plus points and 10 games having a final margin of 20-plus points.

Ultimately, there’s no one on the Magic that can stop Curry tonight, let alone slow him down. If he’s going to garner half the ownership of Lillard at a comparable price point, Curry could be a great player to come in overweight on as a result.

Draymond Green’s fantasy value is derived from his ability to rack up insane peripheral stats without having to score a point. He literally made zero field goals the other night and finished with 2 points yet eclipsed the 50-DraftKings points mark across 37 minutes. We’re beginning to see vintage Green of late, as he’s producing 1.12 DraftKings points per minute on 37.2 percent assists and 13 percent rebounding while racking up the trademark blocks and steals (3.8 stock per game) over that span. His usage remains dismal (13.5%), but Green’s minutes have skyrocketed of late which mitigates any lack of scoring. He might actually be too cheap on DraftKings at $6,800 given his recent resurgence and mouth-watering matchup against Orlando.

Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) at Portland Trail Blazers (229.5)

NBA DFS Picks for Philadelphia 76ers (117.5)

Joel Embiid has been unstoppable this season. He leads the league in scoring over the last month (32.1 points per game) and is getting to the line at an absurd clip (11.4 free throws per game). What makes Embiid special is his ability to draw fouls and knock down free throws at an 85.5 percent clip even on nights where his shot isn’t falling. He’s a monster in the post and unguardable around the rim but is also shooting nearly 60 percent from mid-range this season.

There’s simply no way Enes Kanter contains him tonight. The 76ers lost in embarrassing fashion to a grievously shorthanded Blazers team last week, but Embiid scored a ridiculous 31 points in the first half. With a 33 percent usage rate, 18.6 percent rebound rate, 15.6 percent assist rate and 3.4 percent block rate, Embiid is one of the most dominant fantasy scorers in the game. The biggest issue with rostering him is his center eligibility and rising price point on DraftKings, but at nine percent ownership on a five-game slate, how can we not look at him as an incredible tournament option with slate-breaking upside?

The Blazers are a brutal team defensively who have allowed the fifth most made three-pointers to opponents. This bodes well for Seth Curry and Danny Green, who are entirely scoring dependent but can be rostered at dirt cheap price points on both sites. Curry is a top value option on FanDuel.

Shake Milton’s expected absence should free up some guard minutes for these guys, along with Matisse Thybulle, who is purely a defensive asset for Doc Rivers and his Sixers. I understand the increased ownership for Thybulle at a bottom-barrel price point, but there’s a very solid chance he only attempts 1-3 shots tonight and contributes nothing in the box score. He’s a fantastic defender but is extremely limited offensively and likely won’t touch the ball unless he’s recording a steal or getting a spot-up three-point attempt.

Tyrese Maxey fell out of the Sixers rotation entirely last time out, so I can’t say I’m confident that he’ll get any worthwhile playing time. Maxey hasn’t hesitated to shoot (21.9% usage) when he’s on the floor, though, so if he does happen to soak up the majority of Milton’s minutes he could make for a strong tournament option. That said, Milton was only averaging between 20-22 minutes in close games, so there’s very little chance that Maxey gets all of those minutes or even most of them.

Furkan Korkmaz is going to get some extended run, while Thybulle could be used exclusively to guard Lillard down the stretch as he did against De’Aaron Fox the other night. You’re really just rolling the dice on who’s going to be viable — it’s entirely possible none of them are — between Korkmaz, Thybulle and Maxey, but I would be putting Maxey at the bottom of the list despite his aggressive nature when on the floor.

Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are secondary options in what’s likely to be the highest scoring game of the night, but neither have salaries that are all that inviting. Harris is more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings, though.

NBA DFS Picks for Portland Trail Blazers (112)

Damian Lillard will be one of the highest owned players across the board tonight in this home tilt with Philadelphia, and for good reason. The Sixers own the league’s second best defense, but that doesn’t matter much for a sniper like Lillard who will once again be relied upon to shoulder the offensive load for Portland. Lillard owns a 33 percent usage rate and 33.7 percent assist rate with 1.41 DraftKings points per minute this season with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic off the floor. And while he hasn’t consistently been playing at an elite level, few players have the ceiling that Dame does. He’s only $9,800 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel and is averaging the fifth most minutes (36 minutes per game) in basketball this year.

The rest of this Blazers team can largely be ignored. Kanter risks foul trouble against Embiid but is averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute since McCollum and Nurkic hit the shelf, and Terry Stotts is going to need his rebounding against one of the best rebounding teams in basketball. $6,500 on FanDuel makes a lot of sense, while $7,000 on DraftKings makes him a forgettable secondary option at a deep position.

Robert Covington has logged 35-plus minutes in four straight games but is only averaging 0.73 DraftKings points per minute on the season and 0.76 without McCollum and Nurkic. He’s a barely playable power forward option on FanDuel.

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Author

Dave Loughran

Dave "Loughy" Loughran has been a fixture in the daily fantasy community since not long after its inception, quitting his career as a Drug and Alcohol therapist to become a full-time DFS analyst, player and media personality in 2014. Loughy is the host of "Awesemo Radio" on SiriusXM Fantasy, qualified for the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship, and was featured in the Washington Post and other publications for his success as a player. You can find him on Twitter at @Loughy_D where he'll likely be ranting about the miserable life of a Philadelphia sports fan, using "fella" in almost every tweet, or via email at [email protected].