NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 15

Point Guard

Stephen Curry (DraftKings: $10,600; FanDuel: $10,500) is on another planet right now, averaging 38.9 points over his last eight games and scoring 32-plus points in all of them. Curry usually isn’t going to provide a ton of peripherals for a top-priced player, but he’s shooting lights out right now, and those 3-point bonuses on DraftKings can mitigate the lack of steals, blocks and rebounds.

Curry is playing his second of a back-to-back tonight after shooting 14-for-20 and 11-for-16 from long range last night in a 38-point win over a G-League Thunder squad. He only played 29 minutes, though, so there’s nothing to worry about on Thursday. He is averaging an absurd 1.67 DraftKings points per minute since the start of April, and while his salary continues to climb, gamers can’t ignore the results. It is no surprise he’s trending towards heavy chalk on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but with only four games on the slate and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status in question, it will be hard to get away from Curry. And while the peripherals aren’t elite, Curry is still sporting a 31.6 percent assist rate to accompany his 33.1 percent usage and 1.50 DraftKings points per minute on the year.

Chris Paul (DraftKings: $7,900; FanDuel: $8,000) faces a league-worst Kings defense tonight, and they’ll also be without Richaun Holmes. Paul averages 1.21 DraftKings points per minute on the season, and he’ll draw a nice pace-up spot with Sacramento playing at a top-seven pace. The only concern here is Paul has played 27 or fewer minutes in three straight starts and is a 12.5-point home favorite against a Kings squad playing their second of a back-to-back on the road. It is also worth noting that Cameron Payne could benefit most from a blowout or Paul just being limited like he was over his last two starts. Payne is averaging 22 MPG over his last three and is close to minimum salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute on the season.

Taking the discount with Dennis Schroder (DraftKings: $6,300; FanDuel: $6,600) at similar ownership makes sense against the Celtics. He averages 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 659 minutes with Anthony Davis and LeBron James off the court, while sporting team-high marks in both usage (26.1%) percent and assist rate (35.1%). The matchup with Boston isn’t perfect, as they also play at a slow pace and have a league-average defense, but he’s cheap enough on a four-game slate and should see 35-plus minutes in a competitive game.

Honorable Mention: Trae Young (DraftKings $9,100; FanDuel: $9,100)

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Shooting Guard

NOTE: The shooting guard position is quite ugly right now with Giannis and Young projected in. In the event the one or both of them sit, it would open up plenty of opportunities to get to guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic (DraftKings: $7,200; FanDuel: $7,200), Khris Middleton (DraftKings: $8,300; FanDuel: $7,800) and Donte DiVincenzo (DraftKings: $5,900; FanDuel: $5,800)

Andrew Wiggins (DraftKings: $6,900; FanDuel: $7,100) is generally one of my least favorite fantasy options, but he boasts the highest optimal lineup percentage in our Boom-Bust Tool, and is reasonably priced across the board. Wiggins averages 0.97 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but assuming this game stays remotely competitive he should see his usual 36 minutes or more in the starting lineup. He also sees his usage increase four percent (21% → 25%) with Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman off the floor.

Devin Booker (DraftKings: $8,700; FanDuel: $9,000) isn’t someone to be excited about paying a premium salary for, but the shooting guard position isn’t exactly teeming with great players tonight. Booker is averaging a solid but not elite 1.17 DraftKings points per minute on the season to go along with his 32.8 percent usage and 22.1 percent assist rate. The encouraging part about Booker tonight is he’ll face the Kings, who rank dead last in Defensive Rating and play at the league’s seventh fastest pace. The downside is Booker isn’t exactly cheap. There are some reservations about many of the Suns players tonight because their price points are almost too perfect. If it were not a four-game slate, they would not be discussed.

Kevin Huerter (DraftKings: $5,100; FanDuel: $5,400) provides a good example of what value on tonight’s slate looks like, and how shallow the shooting guard position currently stands. This can all change, and likely will, but right now Huerter is 18 percent owned on DraftKings and 17 percent on FanDuel (Tyrese Haliburton is the same price as Huerter on FanDuel and has nearly identical numbers to Huerter in optimal lineup percentage and boom percentage in our Boom-Bust tool).

Huerter should see his usual 32 minutes tonight and produce somewhere in the neighborhood of his 0.80 DraftKings points per minute season. There’s nothing exciting about Huerter outside of a reasonable salary on a slate devoid of value, and the possibility that Trae Young sits.

Honorable Mention: Jaylen Brown (DraftKings: $8,100; FanDuel: $8,100 ‘SF’)

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Small Forward

Kyle Kuzma (DraftKings: $6,500; FanDuel: $6,500) has been terrible lately, shooting 31 percent from the field and 22 percent from three over his last four starts. Our options are so limited, though, that gamers may have to bite the bullet and take some fliers on Kuzma tonight. While he’s playing well below where he should be, Kuzma is still playing 34-plus minutes in competitive games and averages a somewhat respectable 0.91 DraftKings points per minute with LeBron and Davis off the floor. He also offers some upside at a mid-$6,000 price point, which is great because much of the chalk is going to be low-floor/ceiling players anyway.

Harrison Barnes (DraftKings: $6,300; FanDuel: $5,800 ‘PF’) won’t draw a great matchup against a Suns team that plays solid defense and at a slow pace, but no player in the league is averaging more minutes per game than Barnes (38.4) since the beginning of April. Barnes is logging huge minutes even in blowouts, so there’s definitely some safety in rostering him tonight. His 0.87 DraftKings points per minute on the season are productive enough to deploy him so long as he continues to see upwards of 40 minutes a night. That’s about all there is to it.

Kent Bazemore (DraftKings: $4,900; FanDuel: $5,000) has logged 32-plus minutes in two of the three games Oubre has missed over the last five days. He only played 21 minutes on Wednesday, but the Warriors won by 38 and were at no point in jeopardy of surrendering the lead. Similar to Barnes, Bazemore just needs the minutes. He averages 0.88 DraftKings points per minute on the season, with a 16.5 percent usage rate, 12.6 percent assist rate and 9.0 percent rebound rate. Do not expect those numbers to improve now that he’s playing more minutes with the starters.

Honorable Mention: Mikal Bridges (DraftKings: $5,000; FanDuel: $5,200)

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo (DraftKings: $10,800; FanDuel: $11,100) is questionable for tonight’s road tilt against Atlanta, and his status could completely shape the slate. If Antetokounmpo is active, it’s very possible he’ll be limited after missing six games with an ailing knee. If that’s the suspicion, but isn’t verified anywhere, it could be a great night to consider getting to Giannis over a chalky Curry in some tournament spots. As a player who averages 1.71 DraftKings points per minute, he’s still very capable of breaking a slate without playing his full allotment of minutes. Sure, the assumption is that he’ll be unleashed, but that uncertainty could create a significant dip in ownership, and therefore a great opportunity to pay up for an under-owned stud.

Draymond Green (DraftKings: $7,100; FanDuel: $7,100) has been playing more like his old self lately, posting 40-plus DraftKings points in 10 of his last 20 games while topping the 50 DraftKings points mark four times over that span (all of which were triple-doubles). He’s coming off a huge game last night against Oklahoma City and could be poised for another solid effort tonight in Cleveland. Over that same 20-game stretch, Green is producing 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.2 percent assist rate and 12.8 percent rebound rate. Gamers can also count on Green to pick up at least a couple stocks along the way each night, too. You’re never going to get much shot volume here, but Green can make up for it in other ways, which should keep him firmly in play on Thursday. Our Boom-Bust tool has him with the third highest optimal lineup percentage on FanDuel and seventh highest on DraftKings tonight.

Kevin Love (DraftKings: $6,200; FanDuel: $6,300) could possibly sit out on the second of a back-to-back tonight, but he actually played 31 minutes on a back-to-back just earlier this week, so wait and see. If he’s active, assume he won’t be limited unless J.B. Bickerstaff suggests otherwise. Love hasn’t been active for much of the season, but he’s still produced typically strong per-minute rates when on the floor. With 1.20 DraftKings points per minute on the season, Love shouldn’t be overlooked at a low-$6,000 price point, and could see a usage bump if Collin Sexton remains sidelined. Pay attention to his status leading up to lock, though, as this would be his second back-to-back in less than a week.

Honorable Mention: Jae Crowder (DraftKings: $4,400; FanDuel: $4,800)

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Center

Andre Drummond (DraftKings: $6,900; FanDuel: $6,800) has been an unpredictable source of fantasy production with the Lakers, averaging only 1.11 DraftKings points per minute but already having a couple big games. On an abbreviated slate like tonight’s, Drummond makes a lot of sense. He’s still been a 25.5 percent usage player in Los Angeles and is rebounding at a 24.5 percent clip. All of his rates are a far cry from what he did in Detroit and even Cleveland, but Drummond is still capable of popping off for a huge game even if he only plays around 25 minutes. He is averaging 1.48 DraftKings points per minute on the season, so unless he’s legitimately still hobbled by this toe injury (he could be, but he’s produced some strong games following the injury), there’s no reason Drummond shouldn’t be in our player pool against a wildly undersized Celtics frontcourt tonight.

Robert Williams (DraftKings: $5,800; FanDuel: $5,800) has come back down to earth in recent games, but his salary has followed close behind the decreased production. At $5,800 on FanDuel and DraftKings, Williams (questionable) has to be a top NBA DFS pick at center tonight. Looking at his full body of work, and not just his most recent games, Williams leads the Celtics with 1.33 DraftKings points per minute for the season and has been able to maintain a 21 percent rebound rate. Players like Williams are great, because while he only operates with 15 percent usage, the third-year big man has a monstrous 9.1 percent block rate and even dishes out assists at a 14 percent clip. He can get there in more than just a couple ways, which is why a sub-$6K price point makes a lot of sense tonight despite the ugly, slow-paced affair with Los Angeles.

Hassan Whiteside (DraftKings: $3,400) is a DraftKings specific play at only $3,400. He played 23 minutes last night against a very small Washington team, and is playing behind Damian Jones, who is currently on a 10-day contract. Meanwhile, Chimezie Metu only played six minutes in the loss. With Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley out, gamers could easily be looking at another 20-plus minutes from Whiteside which is all gamers will need from him, averaging 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. Despite all of his inefficiencies, Whiteside is still very capable of scoring, rebounding and blocking shots at an excellent rate. Even if he only played 16 minutes there’s a good chance Whiteside won’t be killing out lineups at near minimum salary.

Honorable Mention: Clint Capela (DraftKings: $8,900; FanDuel: $9,000); Kevon Looney (DraftKings: $3,800; FanDuel: $3,500)

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Author

Dave Loughran

Dave "Loughy" Loughran has been a fixture in the daily fantasy community since not long after its inception, quitting his career as a Drug and Alcohol therapist to become a full-time DFS analyst, player and media personality in 2014. Loughy is the host of "Awesemo Radio" on SiriusXM Fantasy, qualified for the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship, and was featured in the Washington Post and other publications for his success as a player. You can find him on Twitter at @Loughy_D where he'll likely be ranting about the miserable life of a Philadelphia sports fan, using "fella" in almost every tweet, or via email at [email protected].