This is Awesemo’s primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article is not just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you will have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, DFS NBA projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tune into our NBA Fantasy Basketball Live Before Lock show at 8 p.m. ET for the best expert advice and picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups for tonight’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals with the Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | July 8
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Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo played 35 minutes as a surprise active in Game 1 and finished as the top fantasy scorer on the night. Assuming he suffered no setbacks after Tuesday, Giannis could be in line to play even more minutes in a must-win game. He is the highest per-minute producer in this game, which is why he also has the highest projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Giannis averages 1.66 DraftKings points per minute on the year, so even if he does not play an easy 40-plus minutes like some other less productive players tonight, he warrants the ownership across the board.
Khris Middleton averages 1.03 DraftKings points per minute alongside Antetokounmpo this postseason, and given that he played 45 minutes last game, there is a good chance he will see a decent amount of run with Giannis off the floor. Middleton is sporting a 27.5% usage rate, 20% assist rate and 10.7% rebound rate in the playoffs, and those rates are accentuated by the fact that he is likely going to play the entire game. Giannis might be back in the lineup, but Middleton’s salary has decreased as a result, and that will keep him firmly in play. He is projected for the third-highest MVP ownership on FanDuel and fourth-highest Captain ownership on DraftKings (12.9%), right behind Jrue Holiday (13.1%).
Devin Booker is one of the more volatile players thanks to modest peripherals and his scoring-dependent nature. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs, but that does not mean Booker does not have an absurdly high ceiling, which is one of the reasons he is pulling the second-highest ownership on DraftKings despite being only $400 less expensive than Chris Paul. He has recorded multiple 70-plus DraftKings points games in the postseason but also has fewer than 40 DraftKings points in nine of 17 starts.
Chris Paul leads the Suns with 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs, and as a result he has been Phoenix’s most reliable fantasy scorer from game to game. Paul went nuclear in game 1, pouring in 32 points despite going scoreless in the first quarter. He seems like a man possessed right now, having made the Finals for the first time in his 16-year career. With a 23% usage rate and 40.1% assist rate, Paul is already a top option tonight, but his recent lights-out shooting certainly does not hurt the cause either.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”07/08/2021″ team=”suns”]
Mid-Range
Deandre Ayton has taken a huge step forward this postseason, and he has only gotten better as they have progressed. Ayton is producing elite rebounding totals and is turning into a nightly double-double. It would be nice to see more stocks upside given how well he has played defensively. While he is only averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, that number has improved to 1.00 over his last 10 starts. He is going to play around 40 minutes tonight, is knocking down all of his opportunities (at lower volume) and should be able to feast in the pick-and-roll if Mike Budenholzer does not figure something out.
Jrue Holiday is averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute on 28.4% usage and 39.4% assists across 204 minutes with Giannis off the floor this postseason. In 496 minutes with Giannis on the floor, those numbers dip dramatically to 0.90, 20.3 and 25.1, respectively. Holiday topped 40 DraftKings points in all three games against Miami to start the playoffs, but in 13 games (with Giannis active) since then, he has failed to do so 11 times.
Jae Crowder’s production has been all over the map, but he’s going to play 33-plus minutes tonight and will have some performances like in Game 6 against the Clippers where he starts raining down 3’s. He will also have some dreadful ones like his 0-for-8 shooting on Tuesday, but lower mid-range options are few and far between tonight, which is inflating Crowder’s ownership.
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Someone has to benefit from the fact that Brook Lopez could not stay on the floor last game due to him getting burned in the pick-and-roll. Bobby Portis should get some decent run tonight, but he is also a brutal defender so do not expect more than 15 to 17 minutes. That said, his price has collapsed again, which puts him squarely in play as a value option given that he is averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason. Antetokounmpo will likely play center with Budenholzer running smaller lineups more frequently. That could lead to a few more Bryn Forbes minutes off the bench. He was in the winning Milly Maker lineup(s) on Tuesday with only 7.5 DraftKings points too.
P.J. Tucker is never an exciting fantasy option, but he is locked into big minutes in the starting lineup. Tucker has tallied 20-plus DraftKings points in four of his last eight starts and is going to play at least 33 minutes tonight barring injury or foul trouble. Tucker is actually a pretty strong play given his affordable price tag and absurdly low ownership.
Cameron Payne is probably the best value option on the night, not because he is going to play a ton of minutes but because of what he is capable of doing in the minutes he has provided. Payne has actually been the second-best per-minute fantasy producer for the Suns this postseason (1.09) and should handle the ball quite a bit while he is on the floor. He is even playing some minutes alongside Paul each night, which gives him a little bit more room for upside.
Frank Kaminsky saw the court for the first time in almost a month on Tuesday when Dario Saric went down with a torn ACL. Kaminsky is not a good play tonight, though, as there is a good chance he will never leave the bench. It is entirely possible Monty Williams tossed Kaminsky onto the floor for a few minutes because Saric going down was not something he had prepared for. But now with a day off, it is easier to rework the backup center rotation around Saric’s voided 9 to 11 minutes. Even if Kaminsky plays, it probably will not be for more than five minutes, while Crowder could get more run at the five and Torrey Craig get several more minutes as a result.
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