NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

Sunday’s NBA DFS slate lands Game 3 of the Finals with the series heading to Milwaukee after the Suns held serve at home. Phoenix will be looking to put a hammerlock on the series by stealing the first game on the road, while the Bucks are in what amounts to a must-win situation. The Suns are playing excellent basketball behind their star players, whereas the Bucks let a monster effort from their superstar fall short of stealing a road game to even the series in Game 2. With the series essentially on the line, both teams are sure to be pressing hard for the win.

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Phoenix Suns

Chris Paul ($14,700 Captain; $9,800 Utility DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) is going to look to take over this game any way he can. He is seeking his first NBA championship at age 36 and he what a win in Game 3 means to the team’s probability of success. As the Suns’ primary ball handler, Paul will have the opportunity to drive the pace of the game and dictate how action unfolds on the floor. He is averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute through all situations in the postseason, down slightly from the 1.21 mark he put up over the course of the regular season. For the first two games of the series, Paul has averaged 39.4 minutes and 27.5 real points with 8.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds while consuming 26.5% of the team’s usage. The assists amount to a 43.6% share of the team’s total. Paul is somewhat underappreciated as an MVP play on FanDuel and Captain play on DraftKings.

Devin Booker ($15,900 Captain; $10,600 Utility DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel) has been the Suns’ leading scorer in the postseason and through the first two games of the Finals. He is averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs, which is down from his 1.09 in the regular season, though he has been a highly productive player throughout. Booker leads the team with a 28.9% usage rate over the first two games of this series, and he has contributed a 30.0% assist rate, six assists and 1.5 steals per game in the first two. For the season, Booker saw a 31.9% usage share but contributed just a 23.3% assist rate. There is production here whether he focuses on scoring the ball or working in some assists. Booker is a strong play at any of the multiplier spots on both sites, and he does not seem to be drawing enough attention in the prime roles across both sites.

Deandre Ayton ($13,500 Captain; $9,000 Utility DraftKings/$13,000 FanDuel) is the third member of the Suns’ constellation of stars. Ayton has been terrific through the playoffs, putting up a 36.2% rebounding rate and hauling down 12.1 rebounds per game. Ayton has averaged 16.2 real points per game and is a fantastic option if the Suns decide to pound the ball inside as a change of pace. Phoenix has gone along with Milwaukee when they have run smaller, taking and making 3’s. Ayton gets his quality point production efficiently, needing just 15.4% of the team’s usage in the postseason. He makes a quality play at multiplier spots, and he will be owned at every position on the board on the blue site tonight.

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Jae Crowder ($9,000 Captain; $6,000 Utility DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has been a steady presence for Phoenix through the first two games of the Finals. Crowder provides grit and does the dirty work on the floor in his 35 minutes per game. He is averaging 0.71 fantasy points per minute in the postseason as a whole, but he makes for an affordable play and is projected for 33.3 minutes. Over the first two games of this series, Crowder has posted 9.5 rebounds and 6 points per game, adding a stock to his steady total. He is primarily for use in the Utility spot on both DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel Single Game slates, but there is justifiable upside in working him into some shares of the lower-end multiplier spots on the FanDuel slate as well as some price-based speculation at Captain on DraftKings.

Mikal Bridges ($10,800 Captain; $7,200 Utility DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is the last member of the Suns with better than a 30-minute projection for the night. Bridges has put up 0.74 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs and has given the team an efficient scoring outlet over the first two games of the Finals. He has consumed 21.9% of the team’s usage in the two games, posting 20.5 real points in 33.7 minutes of action. Bridges has not been a major contributor, with just a 12.9% rebounding rate and 6.1% assist share, but he is able to find bonus points on the defensive end in the right spots and makes for a fine mix-in play on both sites.

The balance of the Suns’ minutes are projected for role players, including Cameron Johnson, who averages 0.78 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs, and Cameron Payne, who has a solid 1.07 fantasy points per minute but will see only around 14 minutes of time.

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Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($17,700 Captain; $11,800 Utility DraftKings/$16,000 FanDuel) has been playing through pain — not that one would notice given the monster 42, points, 12 rebounds, four assists and four stocks he posted in Game 2. It is difficult to see a path to significantly more scoring than that stat line, but a repeat of that performance is certainly not out of the question. Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks and all players in this game (by far) with 1.46 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs. A somewhat sneaky way to approach him on the site is to roster him in the Pro spot, where he will be lower exposed but still will pick up the minor multiplier.

Khris Middleton ($14,400 Captain; $9,600 Utility DraftKings/$13,500 FanDuel) is under-owned in the MVP and Captain spots given his production and overall ceiling. Middleton averages 1.06 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs. That mark is down from his 1.10 mark through the regular season, but that is to be expected in the playoffs and he remains the third-most productive per-minute producer on the slate. Middleton has consumed 24.1% of the team’s usage over the first two games of the Finals, contributing a 32.4% assist share and a 15.9% rebounding rate while averaging 20 real points per game. There is upside in getting more Middleton than the public in the main multiplier spots.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”07/11/2021″ team=”bucks”]

Jrue Holiday ($13,200 Captain; $8,800 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel) rounds out the upper echelon of Bucks talent. He is priced down compared to his teammates, and he is the most affordable option among the top six between these two teams. Holiday has 1.01 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs, a significant downtick from his 1.14 rate in the regular season. He has averaged 39 minutes per game and responded with 17.2 real points per game in the postseason, but he slipped to just 13.5 points per game over the first two in Phoenix. When he is going right Holiday contributes a 34.2% assist share and is a reliable scorer for his 21.7% usage rate from the regular season. He can be rostered through the multiplier positions today, and he is arguably under-owned at several positions given the cost and the upside as a primary ball handler in a must-win game.

Brook Lopez ($9,900 Captain; $6,600 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has averaged slightly more fantasy points per minute in the playoffs than he did during the regular season, posting a 0.93 rate compared to his 0.90 mark before the playoffs began. Lopez is a steady presence in the middle for the Bucks, but he has seen just 16.1% usage in the postseason (albeit with a slight jump this series). Lopez has a 26.3% rebounding rate and has put up 12.5 points per game in the series. He may have sneaky upside at a low price and just limited public interest.

Pat Connaughton ($5,700 Captain; $3,800 Utility DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is projected for 29 minutes of action tonight. Connaughton averaged just 0.74 fantasy points per minute through the regular season and is down to just 0.64 over the course of the playoffs, but he has been a steady, efficient producer with his accuracy from 3-point range. Connaughton is shooting 46.2% from 3 for the series and was at a 37.1% for the regular season. Connaughton sees just 12.4% usage, but he adds a touch of upside to the efficient equation with a 16.2% rebounding share for the series. Connaughton is a strong salary offset piece on the DraftKings Showdown slate tonight.

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P.J. Tucker ($6,300 Captain; $4,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) flashes frustrating upside from time to time in his reliable 30 minutes per game. For the series, Tucker has seen 34.1 minutes per game, providing 7 real points and four rebounds while playing excellent defense, though he has not racked up noteworthy steals or blocks in the series. Tucker is a low-price option, but he may still be too costly for the mere 0.51 fantasy points per minute of production throughout the playoffs. He has shaky upside for the money, but he is not one to confidently place into multiplier spots.

Other Bucks who will see the court but would need circumstances to change to provide any relevance include Bobby Portis, Jeff Teague and Bryn Forbes, none of which project to see enough time to be fantasy relevant.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.