This is Awesemo’s primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article is not just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully after reading this article you will have a better feel for the slate. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for the Single-Game and Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Suns vs. Bucks Game 4.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | July 14
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Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo appears fully healthy and has played extremely well in this series. Through the first three games Antetokounmpo has produced 1.72 DraftKings points per minute, and he has averaged 37.7 minutes per game. He is likely to play around 40 minutes if tonight’s game is competitive until the end.
Devin Booker struggled in the last game and did not even step on the floor in the fourth quarter. Still, he played 29.1 minutes through three quarters and should get 40-plus minutes tonight as long as the game is competitive. He does not offer the peripherals that some of the other expensive options do in this game, but the ceiling is still extremely high since he is capable of taking over any game offensively. He has a 28.9% usage rate through the first three games against Milwaukee and a 30.9% usage rate overall this postseason.
Khris Middleton has averaged 42.2 minutes per game through the first three games of this series, and he should play huge minutes again tonight. He has only produced 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.8% usage rate in those games, but based on his production this season and earlier this postseason, those numbers should increase. In 18 games played with Antetokounmpo active this postseason, Middleton has 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and a 26.1% usage rate.
NBA Express Weekly is Perfect for Showdown With the NBA Playoffs in full swing, the days of 10- and 13-game slates are behind us. As we embark upon the NBA Conference Finals and NBA Finals, DraftKings and FanDuel will be down to single-game and Showdown slates, which is what our Awesemo NBA Express Weekly membership is built around. You'll receive access to the Big Board Player Values, Rankings, Ownership Rankings, Lineup Builder for every single-game and Showdown slates, as well as Expert Slack Chat.Chris Paul was relatively disappointing in his last game, but he has been excellent this postseason when healthy. Excluding the series against the Lakers where Paul was dealing with a shoulder injury, he has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute and 36.6 minutes per game in 11 games played. During those games he has a 27.1% usage rate and has contributed a 41.2% assist rate. His ceiling is as high as anyone in this game that is not named Giannis.
Jrue Holiday has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and 39.8 minutes per game in this series. He is being asked to do a lot defensively, which can negatively impact a player’s offense at times. Still, he has a 21.2% usage rate and 29.8% assist rate in this series, and the Bucks will need him to contribute on both ends in order to win the title.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”07/14/2021″ team=”bucks”]
Mid-Range
Deandre Ayton only played 24.4 minutes in Game 3, as he was sidelined with foul trouble. There is no reason to think that he will not return to 40-plus minutes tonight, however, as long as the fouls are kept under control. Ayton played 39 minutes and 42 minutes in the first two games of the series, and the Suns have been extremely successful with him on the floor. He has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute through the first three games of the series.
Value
Pat Connaughton has played 28, 34 and 30 minutes in the first three games of this series and appears to have clearly carved out a role as the sixth man for the Bucks in this matchup. He is not a great per-minute fantasy producer, as he has averaged 0.63 DraftKings points per minute both in this series and overall this postseason in the games that Giannis has been active. His playing time offers some value at his salary, however, and he could be a useful piece in rounding out lineups.
P.J. Tucker only played 29.8 minutes in the last game, but he has averaged 32.6 minutes per game in the series. Tucker is an awful fantasy producer, averaging just 0.50 DraftKings points per minute in 18 games played alongside Giannis this postseason. Still, he is inexpensive, and there are not many strong value options in this game since both teams are using tight rotations and pricing has adjusted through the first three games of the series.
Cameron Johnson cannot be expected to match the 30.3 minutes that he played in the last game because it was a result of Ayton’s foul trouble. He played about 21 and 18 minutes in the first two games, however, and he is one of the best per-minute fantasy producers in his price range. He has produced 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in 20.5 minutes per game in the 16 games that he has played alongside Paul this postseason. In this series he has produced 0.86 DraftKings points per minute.
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