NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 9

Update #1: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday have been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Hornets. My expectation is that Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton will join the starting lineup, though we could see Jeff Teague replace Holiday instead of Connaughton. There is a lot of fantasy production available without Antetokounmpo or Holiday. Khris Middleton has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute over 246 minutes without either of them on the floor this season. Donte DiVincenzo has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 174 minutes and he is likely to pick up a few additional minutes of playing time as well. Connaughton has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute without Giannis or Holiday and can be expected to play about 30 minutes if he starts. Portis has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and is likely to play 30-plus minutes tonight. Brook Lopez’s production also benefits as he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute without either of them on the floor this season. If you need a minimum salary punt, Thanasis Antetokounmpo played about 18 minutes last night and has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute without his brother or Holiday on the floor. Finally, the path to success for Charlotte’s players gets a bit easier as well as the Bucks will be without two of their best defenders.

Update #2: I overlooked Jalen McDaniels ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) when I initially wrote the article this morning. McDaniels moved into the starting lineup last game and played 31.9 minutes. He has played a total of 289 minutes this season and has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute. If he starts again tonight, he projects as a strong value option on DraftKings in particular.

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) posted another monster fantasy game his last time out despite the return of Bradley Beal. Beal’s presence does lower Westbrook’s projection, but Westbrook is still one of the highest-upside players in DFS even when Beal is active. In 36 total games played alongside Beal this season, Westbrook has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with 20.9 points, 10.2 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. He has been even better in 10 games alongside Beal since the All-Star break, averaging 1.63 DraftKings points per minute with 22.7 points, 11.2 rebounds and 11.7 assists per game. Westbrook is also second in the NBA with 37.1 minutes per game over the last month (16 games). Westbrook’s ownership decreases when Beal is active, but his ceiling remains intact. He will face a Golden State team that is third in pace and 26th in defensive rating over the last month. This matchup’s 238.5 point total is the highest on the slate by a wide margin.

Stephen Curry ($9,900 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) will face off against Westbrook in what is expected to be an extremely high-scoring game. Washington leads the league in pace over the last month and they are 21st in defensive rating. Curry has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute and 33.9 minutes per game this season. Coach Steve Kerr recently commented that he and Curry have discussed increasing his playing time, and he played 37.8 minutes against the Bucks in his last game. While Curry doesn’t quite produce at the same rate as Westbrook, he is also less expensive and offers a massive ceiling.

Terry Rozier ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) had a disappointing game against the Thunder on Wednesday, but he played 39.7 minutes with Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk all sidelined. The Hornets will be without that trio again tonight, which should lead to a lot of minutes for Rozier. He has averaged 36.2 minutes per game in nine games without Ball this season and Hayward’s absence can only solidify that playing time. Rozier has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.6 percent usage rate in 231 minutes without Ball or Hayward on the floor this season.

Malcolm Brogdon ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is questionable tonight and he hasn’t played a game since March 31. If he is able to play, he is reasonably priced for a favorable matchup against an Orlando squad that was gutted at the trade deadline. Brogdon has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game in the nine games that he has played with Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis this season. Sabonis is also questionable and, if Sabonis were to sit while Brogdon plays, Brogdon’s projection would increase. If Brogdon sits, look to T.J. McConnell ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel).

Tomas Satoransky ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) continues to start and produce at a relatively high rate for the Bulls. He played 29.5 minutes against Toronto yesterday and has now averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 28.7 minutes per game in 14 starts this season. Four of those starts have come with Coby White, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic active and Satoransky has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute and 26.7 minutes per game in those games. Satoransky is likely to lose value relative to other options as there is more news throughout the day but, for now, he projects as a reasonable value tonight against the Hawks.

Coby White ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) played 26.8 minutes against the Bulls last night. He has averaged 26.8 minutes per game in the four games that he has played since Vucevic joined the team as well. In those games, White has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.3 percent usage rate and 17.3 percent assist rate. White has a low floor, but he also offers a high ceiling for his salary.

Brad Wanamaker ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) is not an option on FanDuel, but he does offer some value at near minimum salary on DraftKings. Wanamaker has averaged 20.3 minutes per game in the two games he has played without Ball and Hayward since joining the Hornets. He played 22.9 minutes against Oklahoma City last game and 17.6 minutes against the Celtics in the previous game. It’s difficult to know for sure, but it looks likely that he lost a couple of minutes to garbage time in the game against the Celtics as well. Wanamaker has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute in his 73 minutes without Ball and Hayward since joining Charlotte, making him a viable point-per-dollar option if he gets about 20 minutes again tonight. Like Satoransky, Wanamaker’s value relative to the rest of the slate should decrease as there is more news throughout the day.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Malcolm Brogdon/T.J. McConnell

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Terry Rozier

Latest NBA DFS Content

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,300 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) played 30.4 minutes in his return to the lineup on Wednesday. For the season, he has averaged 35.4 minutes per game, so his workload should increase sooner rather than later. It does sound like his hip is still bothering him at times, so there is some risk here. Beal has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in 36 games played with Westbrook, so there is also upside — especially on FanDuel at $1,000 less expensive than DraftKings.

Paul George ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) faces the Rockets tonight. Houston is 27th in defensive rating and 11th in pace over the last month. George has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 33.6 minutes per game in 36 games played with Kawhi Leonard active this season. He has a 28.4 percent usage rate and 25 percent assist rate in those games. He projects as a very strong play tonight against Houston.

Zach LaVine ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) continues to be available at a reduced price now that Vucevic is a member of the Bulls. Vucevic’s addition hasn’t hurt LaVine’s opportunities much, however, as LaVine has a 29.9 percent usage rate, 8.3 percent rebounding rate and 22.9 percent assist rate in six games with Vucevic. By comparison, LaVine has a 31.0 percent usage rate, 7.9 percent rebounding rate and 23.3 percent assist rate in games without Vucevic this season. His per-minute production has dropped from 1.26 DraftKings points per minute without Vucevic to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with Vucevic, but that can be attributed to a sizable decrease in field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage. It is more important to look at the opportunities that LaVine is getting with Vucevic active than the results through six games and the opportunities suggest that he is underpriced tonight against Atlanta.

Andrew Wiggins ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) is more expensive than is comfortable, but he is facing the Wizards so it is worth noting that he does have a high ceiling against the fastest-paced team in the league. Wiggins has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.7 percent usage rate in 43 games played alongside Curry this season. He has only averaged 4.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game in those games, so he needs to have a productive night scoring in order to be a useful fantasy option. The low floor makes him a risky play at his salary, but the Wizards are likely to allow him to produce at an above-average rate.

Will Barton ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) has averaged 34.2 minutes per game over the last month. In four games with Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic active, Barton has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game. Murray is questionable so there is a chance that he sits and that would solidify Barton’s playing time and open up more usage as well. San Antonio has struggled defensively recently, ranking 23rd in defensive rating over the last month, and Barton’s expected playing time causes him to project as a viable point-per-dollar option.

Avery Bradley ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) started and played 32.9 minutes two games ago against the Suns with John Wall out. Wall returned last game, sending Bradley back to the bench, but he will be out again tonight. It remains to be seen if Bradley starts, but that he will based on the lineup last time that Wall was out. Bradley isn’t an exciting option and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling as he has averaged 0.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 16.2 percent usage rate in six games with Houston. Until more value opens up later in the day, however, he projects as one of the better point-per-dollar values that will allow you to fit top-tier players into your lineups.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, Zach LaVine

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, Bradley Beal, Zach LaVine

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard ($9,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) headlines the small forward position in his favorable matchup against the Rockets. Leonard has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.7 percent usage rate, 23 percent assist rate and 34.6 minutes per game in 36 games played alongside Paul George this season. George at a discounted salary compared to Leonard is preferred, but Leonard is available at the weaker position.

Jaylen Brown ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) had a monster game against the Knicks with Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier sidelined in his last game. Walker will be back in the lineup tonight but Fournier remains out. Brown has played 10 games this season with Walker, Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart active (and without Fournier). In those 10 games, Brown has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game. He has a 27.4 percent usage rate. The Timberwolves are a favorable matchup for Brown as they are seventh in pace and 28th in defensive rating over the last month.

Khris Middleton ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) was disappointing again last night. He is reasonably priced again tonight, however, as he faces the Hornets. Charlotte’s pace has slowed since Ball’s injury, making this a more neutral matchup for DFS than it would have been a couple of weeks ago. Middleton has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 24 percent usage rate in 35 games played alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday this season. If Antetokounmpo misses tonight’s game, Middleton’s usage should increase though he hasn’t seen much of a bump in per-minute production in games without Antetokounmpo so far this season.

Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,000 PG/SG DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) offers value on FanDuel in particular because he is less expensive than he is on DraftKings and he is small forward eligible. Since FanDuel doesn’t have multi-position eligibility and requires you to roster two small forwards, the relative lack of depth at the position tonight makes Porter stand out. Porter has played five games without Wall or Victor Oladipo and with Christian Wood this season. In those games, Porter has a 28.1 percent usage rate and 35.4 percent assist rate. He has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 31.9 minutes per game.

Kelly Oubre ($6,300 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) is another Golden State wing that is difficult to trust on a nightly basis, but he is available at a discount compared to Wiggins. Oubre played 37.1 minutes in a competitive game against the Bucks on Wednesday night and he has averaged 31.7 minutes per game over the last month. His playing time can fluctuate based on his performance, but he is likely to perform well in an excellent matchup against the Wizards. Oubre has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 42 games played with Curry this season and that rate is likely to increase in this matchup.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Kelly Oubre

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Kelly Oubre, Kevin Porter

[DUSTINGRAPHICAD]

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) has missed Milwaukee’s last two games. There has not been an update on his status yet today but, if he plays, he is one of the top pay-up options tonight against the Hornets. Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game in 35 games with Middleton and Holiday active this season. If he sits, Bobby Portis ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) will likely get another start. Portis has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 32.2 minutes per game in three starts without Antetokounmpo this season.

Jayson Tatum ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute and 34.5 minutes per game in 10 games with Walker, Brown and Smart active this season. Tatum has a 29.5 percent usage rate in those games and he has a great matchup tonight against Minnesota. The power forward position is relatively deep tonight, but Tatum stands out as one of the top options.

Zion Williamson ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) has gotten expensive, especially on FanDuel, but the Pelicans could be short-handed again tonight against the Sixers. Williamson has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 29 percent usage rate, 11.9 percent rebounding rate and 18.9 percent assist rate overall this season. In a total of 566 minutes without Brandon Ingram on the floor, Williamson has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.2 percent usage rate, 12.3 percent rebounding rate and 24.1 percent assist rate. Ingram is questionable tonight and, if he sits, Williamson’s projection will increase. The matchup against Philadelphia is a tough one with or without Ingram, however, as the Sixers have been the most efficient defense in the league over the last month.

Domantas Sabonis ($8,700 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is questionable tonight after missing Indiana’s last few games. If Sabonis is able to play, he should benefit from the absence of Myles Turner. Sabonis has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in 1,039 minutes alongside Turner this season. In 622 minutes at center (without Turner or Goga Bitadze on the floor), Sabonis has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. Sabonis should start at center and play the majority of his minutes there if he is able to play tonight against the Magic.

Draymond Green ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) looks like a great mid-range option tonight against the Wizards. Green isn’t a high-usage player, but he rebounds and picks up assists. The Wizards don’t defend or rebound well, so Green is likely to get more rebounds and assists than normal. He has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 38 games played with Curry this season and has triple-double upside against Washington.

P.J. Washington ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) started at center last game and, hopefully, that continues. Washington is a more productive player at center than he is at power forward. He played 31.4 minutes in that game and about 20 of them came at center. Washington has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 609 minutes at center this season compared to 0.80 DraftKings points per minute alongside Cody Zeller.

Kyle Anderson ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,900 SF FanDuel) has been extremely productive in games without Brandon Clarke this season. Clarke is doubtful for tonight’s game and Justise Winslow and De’Anthony Melton will be sidelined as well. Anderson has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 29.7 minutes per game in seven games without Clarke this season compared to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and 26.7 minutes per game in 40 games played with Clarke. His matchup against the Knicks is unappealing, but he still offers upside at his current price — especially on DraftKings.

Miles Bridges ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) started and played 36.5 minutes against the Thunder on Wednesday. He played 30.7 minutes against the Celtics in his previous game and lost about six minutes to garbage time, so expect about 36 minutes from Bridges again if tonight’s game is competitive. The matchup against Milwaukee is tough as they are one of the best defenses in the league, but they are also second in pace over the last month. Bridges leads the team with 29.3 minutes played without Ball or Hayward on the floor this season and he has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute over those minutes.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Bobby Portis, Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis (Q), Draymond Green, Kyle Anderson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Bobby Portis, Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis (Q), Draymond Green, P.J. Washington

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) is the most expensive option at a loaded center position. Towns leads the Timberwolves with 36.1 minutes per game over the last month. He lost a few minutes to foul trouble last game so he only played 34.6 minutes, but there is no reason to be concerned. He should play 36-plus minutes again tonight barring foul trouble or blowout. The matchup against the Celtics is relatively difficult, but Towns is a good enough offensive player that it isn’t overly concerned. He has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in 32 total games this season. The biggest thing working against Towns is the number of strong options at the position.

Nikola Jokic ($10,500 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) has averaged 34.2 minutes per game over the last month. While that is a slight decrease from his season average, it is still enough time for him to produce lofty DFS totals. He leads the Nuggets in usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate this season and is 1.3 assists per game short of averaging a triple-double. He has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and likely sees a bump if Jamal Murray (questionable) is sidelined.

Joel Embiid ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) played 32.8 minutes against the Celtics on Tuesday, so gamers can comfortably project him for his normal playing time tonight against the Pelicans. Embiid has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute and 32.5 minutes per game this season. The Pelicans are 12th in pace and 25th in defensive rating over the last month. Embiid is one of the highest-upside options on tonight’s slate.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,100 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) will be difficult to roster on FanDuel because of his proximity to Jokic and Embiid, but there is a bigger gap on DraftKings that should allow him to make his way into some lineups. Vucevic has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute and 31.1 minutes per game in six games with LaVine active since joining the Bulls. The per-minute production and his rates are similar to his time with Orlando. The only negative is that he is typically playing a few less minutes per game than he was with the Magic.

Robert Williams ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is a risky, volatile option and that is even more true now that Tristan Thompson has returned to action. Williams fouled out in about 14 minutes against Embiid two games ago and played 24.8 minutes against the Knicks last game. He wasn’t in the closing lineup as those honors went to Thompson. Williams could approach 30 minutes, but the most likely outcome is 24 to 26 minutes tonight with Thompson soaking up the remaining minutes at center. Williams has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in his seven starts this season, which is a reminder that he has an extremely high ceiling despite his low floor.

Wendell Carter ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) only played 23.2 minutes in his start against the Wizards last game with Khem Birch back in the rotation. Birch is no longer on the Magic so he won’t be an issue tonight. Mo Bamba was Carter’s back-up last game, however, and he is still a risk to Carter’s playing time. Carter has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute and 26.8 minutes per game in six games since joining Orlando. He has a relatively low floor but also has the potential to drastically outproduce his current salary.

Ivica Zubac ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) only played 23.8 minutes last night as the Clippers went with a small lineup in the fourth quarter despite the presence of Deandre Ayton. Zubac’s playing time is risky again tonight against the Rockets, but he has the potential to play 30-plus minutes in a favorable matchup. He has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and 27 minutes per game in 11 total starts with Leonard and George active this season.

Cody Zeller ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) didn’t start last game, but he played 28.1 minutes off the bench against Oklahoma City. Zeller has been a productive fantasy producer this season with 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. The question mark is his playing time as it is still unknown exactly how Charlotte’s rotation will look without Hayward and Ball. It is a positive sign for Zeller that Bismack Biyombo didn’t leave the bench last game, however, so Zeller offers some tournament appeal.

James Wiseman ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) has started 25 games this season. He has only averaged 23.2 minutes per game in those games, but many of them came earlier in the season. In eight games since being reinserted into the starting lineup on March 23, Wiseman has averaged 25.3 minutes per game. He has only averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute, however, compared to 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in his 25 total starts. Wiseman is a risky option since he has been inconsistent and shown plenty of growing pains this season, but he has talent and a great matchup at a cheap price tag so he carries some tournament appeal.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].