The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, 6/7

This is our primary in-depth NBA daily fantasy lineup strategy article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Free Expert Tennis Projections With one of tennis' grand slam events ongoing, we've made Awesemo's expert Tennis DFS projections FREE for the entirety of the French Open. These Tennis DFS Projections are generated from 1,000 simulations and data points, using surface-based statistics for each player. Our projections will not only give you expected points for DraftKings, but a statistical projection breakdown that includes sets won, games won, aces and clean sets.

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 7

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Point Guard

Kyrie Irving ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) will be a much stronger DFS option for however long James Harden is sidelined than he was with Harden active. Irving played 19 games alongside Kevin Durant and without Harden during the regular season and averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.8 percent usage rate and 27.6 percent assist rate. By comparison, he averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.1 percent usage rate and 16.2 percent assist rate in 14 games played with Durant and Harden both active between the regular season and the postseason.

Jrue Holiday ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) played 36.6 minutes in the first game of the series and lost nearly four minutes to garbage time. He will need to play a lot of minutes and to play well in this series if the Bucks are going to advance. Holiday has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute and 36.2 minutes per game so far in the postseason. He averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 58 regular season games alongside Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Chris Paul ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) played 28.8 minutes in the series-clinching game against the Lakers and he has now had several more days to rest. He seemed to re-aggravate his shoulder injury early in that game and played shorter rotations than normal until the fourth quarter. He bounced back and played almost the entire fourth quarter, however, and with several days off since, Paul should be close to full strength tonight. His salary is reduced as a result of his injury in the last round, so there is minimal risk and exceptional upside in rostering him tonight. He has only averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, but he produced 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in the regular season and is hopefully closer to full strength now than he was against the Lakers.

Monte Morris ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) was excellent in the last couple of games against the Blazers and has subsequently seen his salary rise for Game 1 against the Suns. Phoenix is a better team defensively than the Blazers and Morris is unlikely to have quite as much success. Still, he averaged 29.5 minutes per game in the series with 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He played about 33 minutes in the series finale after playing 41 minutes in the double-overtime game two nights before. Morris has been a solid back-up to Jamal Murray for a couple of years and it isn’t surprising to see him taking on a big role even though he is still coming off the bench. Morris will be particularly difficult to roster on FanDuel, but he still offers value on DraftKings.

Mike James ($3,300 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) is a risky option since we don’t know what the Nets’ rotation will look like in a full game without James Harden, but he soaked up 30.2 minutes in Game 1 after Harden’s injury. Tyler Johnson, on the other hand, played 1.4 minutes of garbage time after being ahead of James in the rotation against the Celtics. James averaged 15.4 minutes per game and 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without Harden and with Irving and Durant during the regular season. James could play 15 minutes tonight, but even if he does only play in the mid-teens, he is likely to justify his salary at near minimum price on a two-game slate on DraftKings. At this price and projected minutes, James is the No. 2 overall value play on tonight’s slate in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.

Top DraftKings Picks: Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday, Chris Paul

Top FanDuel Picks: Kyrie Irving, Jrue Holiday, Chris Paul

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Shooting Guard

Devin Booker ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) is the only option at shooting guard inspiring confidence. It is a very weak position tonight, so there is additional incentive to take the “guaranteed” points — especially on FanDuel. Booker averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.2 percent usage rate and 22.7 percent assist rate in the series against the Lakers. He averaged 40.8 minutes per game, and he should continue to play huge minutes in this series as well. Denver isn’t as stout defensively as the Lakers either, so Booker could produce even more. This Nuggets vs. Suns matchup sets up well for Booker, and he’s in the top-5 of the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections with 45.17 projected DraftKings points.

Austin Rivers ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) is difficult to trust for a couple of reasons. First, he isn’t a very good fantasy producer. He averaged 0.59 DraftKings points per minute in the series against Portland and 0.69 DraftKings points per minute in 15 regular season games with Denver. In addition to subpar per-minute production, Rivers’ minutes aren’t set in stone as the Nuggets’ closing lineup will most likely only have two of Rivers, Morris and Facundo Campazzo. Rivers averaged 33.7 minutes per game against Portland, but the hot hand situation in the backcourt makes his playing time volatile. Still, he offers value at a relatively cheap price tag and extremely thin position.

Bruce Brown ($3,800 SF DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) started the second half of Brooklyn’s last game in place of Harden, and he should start tonight as well. Brown played about 11 minutes in the second half of that game and 21.3 minutes total, so be careful with our playing time projection. There are a variety of ways that the Nets’ rotation can go. Brown averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and 27.2 minutes per game in six starts without Harden and with Durant and Irving during the regular season. He projects as a strong value on DraftKings and a much riskier option on FanDuel.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/07/2021″ team=”nets”]

Top DraftKings Picks: Devin Booker

Top FanDuel Picks: Devin Booker

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($10,300 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) is a clear top option tonight with Harden sidelined. Durant averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.7 percent usage rate and 28.7 percent assist rate in 17 regular season games alongside Irving without Harden. So far in the postseason, Durant has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute and 37.7 minutes per game. He has a 31.5 percent usage rate and 13.2 percent assist rate. It is likely that his assist rate will increase without Harden, and the usage rate could see an uptick as well.

Khris Middleton ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 35.2 minutes per game through five games in the postseason. He averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season in 50 games played alongside Holiday and Antetokounmpo. The Bucks will need Middleton to step up as an additional scorer alongside Antetokounmpo in this series and they will also need him on the floor for defensive purposes. His salary leaves plenty of upside tonight, and he’s currently slated for 39.08 points in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.

Michael Porter Jr. ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) got off to a slow start against the Blazers but turned things around in the last two games with 51 and 42.75 DraftKings points. His salary is still affordable as well. Porter averaged 34.7 minutes per game and 0.94 DraftKings points per minute against the Blazers after averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 33.8 minutes per game in 23 games without Murray during the regular season.

Mikal Bridges ($4,8000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) doesn’t offer the same upside as Porter or Middleton, but he is at a much less expensive salary as well — particularly on DraftKings. Bridges averaged about 0.80 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and 0.67 DraftKings points per minute in six postseason games against the Lakers. In those games, Bridges averaged 33.3 minutes per game, so he should continue playing into the mid-30s.

Top DraftKings Picks: Kevin Durant, Michael Porter

Top FanDuel Picks: Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton

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Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) played 35.3 minutes in Game 1 against Brooklyn, losing about four minutes to garbage time. So far in the postseason, he has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute and 36 minutes per game. He is one of the best per-minute producers in the league and should see several more minutes per game in the postseason than he averaged during the regular season.

Aaron Gordon ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) played about 33 minutes in the finale of Denver’s series against Portland and finished the series with 30.2 minutes per game and 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. Gordon averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 25 games with Denver during the regular season. It’s difficult to entirely trust Gordon since he doesn’t need to play as big a role offensively on the Nuggets as he did the Magic and his playing time typically varies from about 28 minutes to 33 minutes depending on game flow and his performance, but these risks are baked into his price at this point.

Jae Crowder ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) had some issues with foul trouble early in the series against the Lakers, but he ended up still averaging 31.5 minutes per game and 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in the series. Crowder isn’t a reliable fantasy contributor on a nightly basis since he doesn’t contribute heavily to any one category, but his salary factors that in. Crowder is always a player to pivot from in large-field tournaments if he is highly owned since the chances of him producing a “must-have” score are low, but he projects as a strong value tonight from a median projection standpoint.

Blake Griffin ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) played 35.1 minutes in the first game of the series against Milwaukee after playing no more than 25 minutes in a game against the Celtics and no more than 20 minutes in four of the five games. It appears that Griffin’s playing time will increase in this series, and it is likely that his fantasy production will as well for as long as Harden is sidelined. Griffin has averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute in 168 minutes alongside Harden since joining the Nets, including the postseason, compared to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 528 minutes without Harden on the floor. Of those 528 minutes, Irving and Durant have been on the floor for 184 of them and Griffin has produced 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. He’ll be extremely chalky tonight, but he’s clearly the No. 1 value play on the slate in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, coming in with an 8.18 value score in tonight’s Bucks vs. Nets Game 2.

Top DraftKings Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Blake Griffin

Top FanDuel Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Blake Griffin

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute and 35.2 minutes per game in Round 1 against the Blazers after producing 1.73 DraftKings points per minute in 24 games played without Murray during the regular season. The Suns are a strong team defensively and Deandre Ayton played very well against the Lakers, but Jokic is such a skilled player that he will typically find a way to produce a big stat line regardless of matchup. He averaged 25.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists in 37.1 minutes per game in three meetings with Ayton during the regular season. Tonight’s Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections have Jokic looking at 30.87 points, 11.14 rebounds and 6.66 assists in our most up-to-date run of projections.

Deandre Ayton ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) will have his hands full on the defensive end against Jokic, but he is reasonably priced for someone who averaged 36.3 minutes per game against the Lakers, including at least 37 minutes in four of the six games. Ayton averaged only 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in that series, but he averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and the Nuggets aren’t as imposing defensively as the Lakers are. In three games against Jokic during the regular season, Ayton averaged 22 points and 12.3 rebounds in 37.4 minutes per game.

Brook Lopez ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) offers some value at center in a favorable matchup against the Nets, but he doesn’t offer the playing time or production that Jokic or Ayton do. Lopez averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and 27.2 minutes per game during the regular season and he has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and 28.2 minutes per game through five games in the postseason (four against Miami and one against Brooklyn). Lopez played 27.5 minutes in the first game of this series, and he should play around 30 minutes in games that come down to the wire.

Top DraftKings Picks: Nikola Jokic, Deandre Ayton

Top FanDuel Picks: Nikola Jokic, Deandre Ayton


Be sure to check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Loughy and Josh!

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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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