This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon for the most up-to-date NBA DFS picks information.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings & FanDuel Picks | Jan. 28
Portland Trail Blazers (+4.5) at Houston Rockets: 229
Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard hasn’t posted fewer than 50 DraftKings points in any of the three games C.J. McCollum has missed, and while he’s yet to erupt for a slate-breaking performance over that span, the potential is absolutely there tonight in Houston. Lillard is the projected highest-owned player on FanDuel and third highest on DraftKings (using the Awesemo ownership projections) for good reason; dating back to the start of last season, he owns a 35.1 percent usage rate and 35.2 percent assist rate while producing while producing 1.44 DraftKings points per minute across 955 with McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic off the floor. He’s logging north of 40 minutes in many competitive games, which bodes well for tonight’s meeting in Houston where the Blazers are 4.5-point dogs in the highest total game on the slate (229 over/under).
Gary Trent Jr. played 41 minutes in the starting lineup on Monday but should move back to the bench with Rodney Hood expected to return tonight. Neither are particularly interesting options thanks to very little upside in the way of peripheral stats. Hood offers some modest intrigue in tournaments at $4,300 on DraftKings, though, as he can get hot from the field in what’s likely to be a very high-scoring affair. Anfernee Simons is similar in that he offers nothing outside of scoring and should be limited to low 20’s in minutes with Hood back in the rotation.
Carmelo Anthony will be a popular NBA DFS pick tonight, and for good reason. Robert Covington remains sidelined with a concussion and Anthony should once again get the nod in the starting five. Anthony’s 28 percent usage on Monday was the second highest on the Blazers behind only Lillard, and his 35 minutes played were more than enough to consider him a top option again tonight. He is only averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute without McCollum and Nurkic since the start of last season, but big minutes and an affordable price point should mitigate the modest per-minute production.
Derrick Jones is available if you’re looking for a potential 20-23 fantasy points, no shot volume and very limited peripherals.
Enes Kanter ranks 11th in rebound chances per game this season (17.3) despite averaging only 20.9 minutes per game. His 22.1 percent rebound rate ranks second behind only Andre Drummond among all players averaging at least 20 minutes. And while his usage stands at only 17.9 percent, Kanter is still averaging a points-rebounds double-double on the year. Terry Stotts won’t have the luxury of going small tonight against the Rockets’ Christian Wood/DeMarcus Cousins center rotation, which could lead to another 30-plus minutes from the Turkish big man. Kanter’s salary is more appealing on FanDuel, but he isn’t priced out of play yet on DraftKings, either.
It’s also worth noting that Stotts is known for running condensed rotations, and with three key starters out of the lineup we will likely see a nine-man rotation tonight.
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Houston Rockets
Wood will return to the starting lineup tonight after missing a trio of games with a sprained ankle. While it’s unlikely Wood sees a considerable dip in playing time, it is worth noting the Rockets were 3-0 in the games DeMarcus Cousins started at center and played 30-plus minutes in all of them. I’m not overly confident in Wood at his current price point, but he appears to still be garnering plenty of ownership on DraftKings (21.9%) and FanDuel (31.7%). Much of this has to do with the limited options at the center position on an abbreviated slate. With an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute on 27.6 percent usage and 17 percent rebounding, Wood will stand out to many on what’s projected to be the highest scoring game of the night.
John Wall was limited to 21 and 24 minutes in his two games since returning from injury. He’s averaging 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with James Harden off the floor across 124 minutes, though, and would be a strong option in an appealing matchup if Stephen Silas lifts his playing time restrictions. Of course we have to account for Victor Oladipo, who will siphon some usage away from Wall, but the latter is significantly less expensive than Oladipo on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In only 24 minutes played alongside Wall, Oladipo averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute on 23 percent usage, but Wall was also operating with an absurd 80 percent usage rate against his former team. Oladipo makes for a fine option given his 35-plus minutes played in competitive games, but neither he nor Wall are priorities on DraftKings. Oladipo is far more appealing on FanDuel where you have to play two shooting guards and will be mostly devoid of options.
Jae’Sean Tate is a cheap way to get exposure to a high-scoring game, but that’s about it. He’ll need to fall into some peripheral stats because his usage will stay bottomed out playing alongside Wall, Oladipo and Wood.
Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5) at Detroit Pistons: 213.5
Los Angeles Lakers
UPDATE: Anthony Davis is OUT — LeBron James becomes a better option, producing 1.56 DraftKings points per minute on 37.2 percent usage in 248 minutes without Davis this season. This all assumes he isn’t limited on the second of a back-to-back. Kyle Kuzma and Markieff Morris become top value options with Davis being sidelined. Dennis Schroder will hopefully see some staggered minutes with James, making him more appealing than he was earlier in the day.
The Lakers play their second of a back-to-back tonight after suffering their first road loss of the season against the 76ers on Wednesday. James played 39 minutes and is surprisingly not listed on the injury report as questionable tonight (even though he’s played through the questionable tag in every game this season). It’s extremely difficult to justify paying the same for LeBron as Lillard on DraftKings right now, and even if you can fit both of them into lineups I’m not sure it’s worth it. LeBron has scored fewer than 60 DraftKings points 17 times in 19 games this season, while failing to eclipse 55 DraftKings points all but four times. He’s more appealing on FanDuel where the small forward position is barren at the top, but there’s enough low-end value there to avoid paying up. LeBron’s rates are all in line with his career averages, so it’s not like his efficiency has taken a hit this season (1.51 DraftKings points per minute), but a career-low 33 minutes per game has curtailed his overall production thanks to many blowouts.
Davis has seen his salary dip below $9,000 for the first time all season on DraftKings. While this hasn’t been the strongest campaign for Davis, he’s still producing 1.38 DraftKings points per minute on the season, and his usage rate has crept back up to 30 percent over the first four games of this current road trip. So long as this game isn’t over by halftime, there’s a lot of value in Davis’ sub-$9K price point on DraftKings.
Schroder is the only non-LeBron/Davis Laker with any appeal most nights. He’s $5,700 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, has a 22 percent usage rate on the season and should log around 30 minutes in a close game. The upside is limited with Schroder given the circumstances, but he’s a fine secondary option on an abbreviated slate. Don’t expect this game to be a high-scoring one, though, as the Pistons play at a bottom-five pace and the Lakers boast the best defensive rating in the league.
It was clear last night that Frank Vogel wanted Marc Gasol on the floor to guard Joel Embiid, which resulted in a season-low 15 minutes played from Montrezl Harrell. On the second leg of a back-to-back we could see Harrell get some extended run tonight, especially given the offensive ineptitude of Detroit’s frontcourt. I don’t hate the idea of taking some shots on Harrell in tournaments at a sub-$6K cost. He’s averaging north of a fantasy point per minute with 19 percent usage and 15 percent rebounding on the year.
Detroit Pistons
This is a brutal matchup for a Pistons team that ranks 23rd in offensive rating facing the top-ranked defense in basketball. Even with the Lakers playing their second of a back-to-back after LeBron and Davis logged 38 and 35 minutes respectively last night, Detroit should have a very difficult time getting any rhythm established on offense.
Blake Griffin is a shelf of his old self, turning down post-up opportunities so he can spot up behind the 3-point line, and watching his usage plummet to 18.7 percent. He still surprisingly leads the Pistons in touches per game (60) and remains a decent playmaker for his position (6.4 potential assists per game) but is averaging a paltry 0.87 DraftKings points per minute on the year. Two season ago Griffin finished 14th in the league in PPG (24.5) and 44th in RPG (7.5). This year he’s 126th and 73rd, respectively.
Jerami Grant has been a revelation for the Pistons this season, significantly adding to his offensive arsenal and becoming a legitimate threat on a nightly basis. He’s scored at least 22 points in 16 of his last 17 games and is sporting a 27 percent usage rate with 1.16 DraftKings points per minute produced on the year. With that said, it’s still difficult to justify paying $8,400 for him on DraftKings in such a brutal spot. I can, however, understand his 20 percent projected ownership on FanDuel at the small forward position.
Mason Plumlee is the most appealing Piston tonight for a couple of reasons. First, he’s inexpensive for a center who averages almost 27 minutes per game; and second, he’s a versatile big man who can actually contribute in a number of categories. Through 18 games Plumlee owns a 15.7 percent usage rate, 18 percent rebound rate and 18.2 percent assist rate while averaging more than 1 steal per game in the process. He’s even averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. If the game stays close, Dwayne Casey could opt to leave Plumlee on the floor against this jumbo Lakers frontcourt.
Derrick Rose has a near 30 percent usage rate and is churning out 1.14 DraftKings points per minute on the season, so there’s some tournament appeal at both a low cost and low ownership tonight. That said, his playing time is too erratic to place any faith in him outside of large-field GPPs.
Los Angeles Clippers (+4) at Miami Heat: 214.5
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers will be without Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley again tonight, which opens the door to another start for Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Terance Mann. Jackson had a ceiling game on Tuesday, but his usage was only 19.5 percent. His 39 minutes played were a huge boon to his fantasy production, and his team-leading 14 potential assists also pushed him over the top. Jackson’s 85 touches led the team by a mile, too, with Kennard’s 48 being the second most on the night. $7,000 is a tough price to pay for on DraftKings, but if you’re projecting him for another 35-plus minutes in regulation, you could actually do much worse. At $5,000 on FanDuel Jackson becomes an extremely appealing option and one of the best plays on the slate.
Kennard has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute on 23.6 percent usage, 21.4 percent assists and 6.0 percent rebounding across 87 minutes without George and Leonard this season. He was solid in Tuesday’s loss to Atlanta, but his 28 DraftKings points were supported by a season-high 4 steals. Kennard went 14 games without a steal prior to Tuesday and tallied more swipes in that game than he had on the season combined (3). He also played only 28 minutes, which compared to Jackson (39.1) and Mann (34) was underwhelming. It’s easy to get away from Kennard at $6,500 on DraftKings.
Kennard will be popular at $5,500 on FanDuel, but it might not be the craziest idea to take some shots at Rose at a near identical price point in tournaments. A potential 25 minutes from Rose is better than 28 minutes from Kennard almost any night in GPPs.
Mann also padded his Tuesday stat line with a handful of steals (4) and finished 1 rebound shy of a double-double. He logged 7 potential assists, though, and was simply on the floor enough to warrant consideration assuming he draws another start. There’s nothing special about Mann outside of his price point, which at $4,500 on FanDuel has him as the third highest projected owned player overall.
Serge Ibaka and Lou Williams are two options who are always worth considering in tournaments. Williams shot miserably on Tuesday (4-14) but he led the Clippers with a 33.7 percent usage rate. Ibaka was second on the team at 27.5 percent. It stands to reason that if Williams is shooting well he’s going to get some extended run off the bench, and he’s virtually unowned across the board. It’s always a risk rostering a veteran bench player whose minutes have been curtailed all season long, but the reward could be much greater on a night where the Clippers are down their two top players once again.
Ibaka has proven time and time again that he’s capable of producing big fantasy performances. A skilled scorer, shot blocker and sufficient enough rebounder, Ibaka should always at least be considered in tournaments at discounted ownership on a four-game slate. He logged almost 30 minutes last game and is averaging north of a fantasy point per minute on the season.
Marcus Morris was a disappointment as value chalk the other night, but he’s cheap and should play around 24-26 minutes again on Thursday. You can do worse for an NBA DFS pick.
Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are all questionable tonight vs. Los Angeles. If all three of them remain sidelined, Kendrick Nunn will continue to log huge minutes in the Heat backcourt. He’s averaging 0.95 DraftKings points per minute on 25.5 usage across 152 minutes with them off the court this season. If Dragic is active and both Herro and Butler remain out, he’ll become a strong play at an affordable price point against a shorthanded Clippers front court. Dragic is producing 1.12 DraftKings points per minute across 748 minutes since the start of last season with them off the floor.
Butler will almost certainly be limited in his return if he makes it back on Thursday as he hasn’t played in nearly three weeks. Herro makes sense if both Butler and Dragic are out but isn’t a necessary option if one or both return.
Duncan Robinson is also questionable for Miami, which in the event that he sits could thrust Andre Iguodala into a larger role. There’s not much to get excited about there outside of a dirt cheap price point. While Robinson is an underwhelming per-minute producer (0.70) he’s averaging an absurd 37.5 minutes per game over his last five starts.
Bam Adebayo has really thrived without Butler in the lineup, averaging 1.32 DraftKings points per minute on 27.5 percent usage, 15.5 percent rebounding and an amazing 30 percent assists through 360 minutes this season. Despite crossing the $9K threshold on DraftKings, Adebayo still makes for a strong play if Butler sits, as he is doing everything for the shorthanded Heat. At $9,200 with power forward eligibility on FanDuel, Adebayo remains a nice option at the top of the position.
Golden State Warriors (+2) at Phoenix Suns: 220.5
Golden State Warriors
There’s not a lot to love from the Warriors tonight. Stephen Curry is always in play because he’s capable of knocking down 10 3’s en route to a 50-point game, and he’s drawing only 20 percent ownership on FanDuel and 17 percent on DraftKings. Both the Suns and Warriors are playing their second of a back-to-back, but this game should stay competitive and Curry should maintain his 30-plus percent usage rate in Phoenix.
Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are all last men in type fantasy options tonight, outside of FanDuel, where Green is $4,900.
James Wiseman played well off the bench last night and even knocked down all three of his attempts from beyond the arc. He has a 25.2 percent usage rate in his rookie season and could potentially see that climb playing with Golden State’s reserves. 24-26 minutes off the bench for Wiseman could make him a perfectly fine play at $4,900 on DraftKings given the 7.5 percent projected ownership.
Phoenix Suns
UPDATE: Devin Booker has been ruled OUT.
It seems pretty unlikely that Booker will be active tonight as he deals with a lingering hamstring issue. He was sidelined last night on the first leg of a back-to-back and Chris Paul exploded for 32 points on 12-21 shooting across 35 minutes. Paul is averaging 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with Booker off the floor this season and makes for a top play on both FanDuel and DraftKings assuming nothing changes tonight.
Cameron Johnson was a disappointment on Wednesday but logged 31 minutes in the starting lineup and is cheap across the board. He’s averaging 0.95 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but that number jumps to 0.92 with Booker off the floor. Johnson is more of a necessary evil than anything else tonight.
Deandre Ayton hasn’t seen a huge boost in production or usage with Booker off the floor. He’s one of only a couple viable centers on FanDuel tonight which is why we’re seeing his ownership projection around 31 percent. There are some alternatives to Ayton on DraftKings, but he’s still pulling the second highest ownership behind only Anthony Davis at center. It’s a fine matchup against Kevon Looney and a skilled-yet-raw Wiseman, so Ayton shouldn’t have much trouble producing. It is, however, a bit concerning that he’s finished with single-digit points in three of his last seven games.
Jae Crowder is logging huge minutes as a starter, which puts him firmly in play at $5,500 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel. He’s only averaging 0.80 DraftKings points per minute on the season but elevated minutes and a low salary should keep that from being much of an issue on most nights. Similarly, Mikal Bridges is averaging 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season (0.90 without Booker) and is comparably priced to Crowder on both sites.
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excellent content as usual