This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the NBA DFS Strategy Show every morning to get you prepared for the day’s slate and make the best NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | March 18
Point Guard
Damian Lillard (DraftKings: $11,000; FanDuel: $10,400) won’t be a popular option tonight thanks to the return of C.J. McCollum, but that didn’t stop him from erupting for 50 real points and 75 DraftKings points on Tuesday in a come-from-behind win against the same Pelicans squad he’ll face tonight. McCollum should still be limited in his second game back, and Lillard played north of 22 minutes without McCollum on the floor last time out. Lillard will likely be one of the lower-owned high-priced players (on DraftKings) despite the fact that the Pelicans rank 28th in defensive rating over the last month and tonight’s game boasts a slate-high 239.5 total. Sleeping on Lillard in tournaments could be a mistake, even at an elevated price point. You won’t need much of him to get over the field either.
Russell Westbrook (DraftKings: $10,200; FanDuel $10,500) — The Jazz are a different team than they were over the last few years. The past 30 days have seen them play at a top-10 pace while ranking 16th in defensive rating, and tonight’s road tilt with Washington is sporting a hefty 235.5 total. Enter Westbrook, who has logged 39 minutes in three straight games and will see the same run if this game can stay even remotely competitive. Even if the Wizards do get cooked, Westbrook could still see around 35 minutes because his head coach is Scott Brooks.
Westbrook is producing 1.51 DraftKings points per minute on 31.5% usage, 46.5% assists and 14.4% rebounds while sitting 0.6 rebounds per game shy of a triple-double average on the year. He’s generally always going to be a bit more appealing on DraftKings, though, as he’ll accrue points for double-double and triple-double bonuses while losing far fewer points for turnovers.
Trae Young (DraftKings: $9,900; FanDuel: $8,800) — I would much rather pay for Westbrook or even Lillard over Young on DraftKings, but he is inexplicably cheap on FanDuel for the second straight game. Sure, Young has taken a step back from last season, but he’s still averaging 1.27 FanDuel points per minute on 32.7% usage and 45.3% assists across nearly 35 minutes per game. His matchup against the Thunder shouldn’t serve as a deterrent either even though they play at a slow pace. Young is still one of the more explosive players in the league, so while his average performance has left much to be desired, there’s always room for the 60-fantasy-point explosion.
Chris Paul (DraftKings: $7,700; FanDuel: $6,900) has dipped below $7,000 on FanDuel for tonight’s meeting with the Timberwolves, who are 25th in defensive rating and eighth in pace over the last month. He is producing 1.18 FanDuel points per minute on the year, with a 22.3% usage rate and just shy of 40% assists. The only issue with rostering Paul tonight is the blowout risk against an awful Minnesota team.
Honorable Mention: Lonzo Ball
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell (DraftKings: $8,700; FanDuel: $8,300) and the Jazz couldn’t ask for a better matchup than the one they’ll get tonight against Washington. Mitchell is a 31% usage player with Mike Conley off the floor and squares off against a Wizards team that plays at a league-leading pace while ranking 27th in defensive rating. He’s playing 36-plus minutes in competitive games and even has a 30% assist rate with Conley sidelined.
If you don’t want to pay for Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson (DraftKings: $6,100; FanDuel: $5,200) makes for a strong alternative. Clarkson averages 1.06 DraftKings points per minute on 27% usage across 604 minutes without Conley this season. He has never seen a shot he doesn’t like and should see plenty of minutes with Conley off the floor.
Joe Ingles (DraftKings: $5,200; FanDuel: $4,400) will probably slot into the starting lineup tonight, making him another strong play from Utah. He offers a respectable 0.93 DraftKings points per minute without Conley (granted, playing alongside Mitchell more isn’t exactly going to help) and should earn around 30 minutes in arguably the best possible matchup out there.
Knicks Guards — It is going to be easier to break the Knicks guards down collectively now that Elfrid Payton, Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley have all been ruled out. Alec Burks (DraftKings: $4,900; FanDuel: $4,500) logged a season-high 35 minutes last time out and should be primed for plenty of run tonight against Orlando. He has only played 100 minutes without each of the aforementioned inactives tonight but is sporting a 27% usage rate with 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over that span. He is even dishing out assists at a respectable 18.5% clip.
I would not be surprised if R.J. Barrett (DraftKings: $6,400; FanDuel: $5,900) starts at point guard tonight, which would make him a stronger option than he already was. He is only averaging 5.3 potential assists per game, but that should change with New York’s backcourt being decimated.
Even Austin Rivers is out, so that leaves Tom Thibodeau with Frank Ntilikina (DraftKings: $3,000; FanDuel: $3,500) as the only other option. Truth be told, Julius Randle will be the one directing traffic tonight, but the minutes still have to get filled in the backcourt. Ntilikina is far from a strong per-minute producer, but he’s the bare minimum and could see a lot of minutes for the depleted Knicks. Even Reggie Bullock (DraftKings: $4,200; FanDuel: $3,800) should be in line to play huge minutes again, but like Ntilikina, you’re banking strictly on playing time and nothing else.
Honorable Mention: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Bradley Beal
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Small Forward
LeBron James (DraftKings: $10,700; FanDuel: $10,800) has seen limited minutes in each of his last two games thanks to lopsided blowouts in favor of the Lakers. They were back-to-backs too, which made it easier for Frank Vogel to give him some fourth quarter rest. Now he’s a heavy home favorite (-7.5) once again but remains firmly in play across the board so long as Anthony Davis is sidelined. With Davis off the floor this season, James is averaging 1.49 DraftKings points per minute on 32.7% usage, 13.2% rebounding and 41.8% assists. The Hornets are playing at the league’s eighth-fastest pace and rank 17th in defensive rating, so nothing about this matchup is imposing. The hope, however, is that James gets his full allotment of minutes and Charlotte can keep things competitive. Coming off consecutive triple-doubles, James is primed for another big game tonight and is a viable NBA DFS pick.
Brandon Ingram (DraftKings: $8,900; FanDuel: $7,800) is only $7,800 at a weak small forward position on FanDuel. The Pelicans draw a tasty matchup against the Trail Blazers in a game with a slate-high 239.5 total, and there’s nothing to suggest we won’t see another hyper competitive affair. Ingram logs big minutes in close games, averages 1.14 FanDuel points per minute and contributes nicely in multiple categories, although his rebound rate (8.3%) has taken a hit this season. Still, he’s a 27.8% usage player who dishes out assists at a 21.1% clip and should have no trouble churning out fantasy points against the league’s 29th-ranked defense.
Mikal Bridges (DraftKings: $5,200; FanDuel: $4,900) is the very antithesis of a sexy DFS play, but he is facing a dreadful Timberwolves team and should see another 30-plus minutes of court time so long as the game isn’t over heading into the fourth quarter. While Bridges only averages 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, his excellent defense keeps him on the floor, and Cameron Johnson’s absence will hopefully keep his minutes up. Bridges isn’t really necessary on DraftKings where multi-position eligibility allows us to roster Knicks and Jazz value options, but he could make some sense at $4,900 on FanDuel.
Honorable Mention: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Power Forward
Julius Randle (DraftKings: $10,000; FanDuel: $9,200) is doing everything for the Knicks, and he’ll be asked to do even more tonight with Quickley joining Rose and Payton on the sidelines. Randle already leads the Knicks in potential assists per game (10.3), ranks top 10 among all players in rebound chances per game (17.5) and is getting more than 80 touches per game. He has been dominant with New York’s primary guards off the floor too, averaging 1.37 DraftKings points per minute on 30.5% usage, 15.9% rebounding and 36.9% assists, all of which categories lead the team. There is no reason Randle should be only $9,200 on FanDuel.
Zion Williamson (DraftKings: $8,900; FanDuel: $8,400) faces the ultra-soft frontcourt defense of the Blazers tonight in a game that boasts the highest total on the slate. Williamson is averaging 32 points on 23-for-35 shooting in two meetings with Portland this season, and he should have no trouble carving up the likes of Enes Kanter, Derrick Jones and whoever else Terry Stotts decides to sacrifice on Thursday. Williamson is shooting 69% on attempts within three feet of the rim this season, while Portland is allowing the third-highest field-goal percentage at the rim (66.3%). They are also allowing the sixth-most rebounds to their opponents while ceding the ninth-most points in the paint. This is a perfect spot for Williamson to excel.
Note: Clint Capela is questionable tonight for the Hawks. If he is inactive, John Collins becomes a top mid-range power forward option again.
Honorable Mention: Dario Saric
[MARCHMADNESS]
Center
Rudy Gobert (DraftKings: $8,200; FanDuel: $8,700) is poised to annihilate the Wizards’ frontcourt tonight and should have ample opportunity to rack up the peripheral stats against the fastest-paced team in basketball. Gobert has quietly been very productive on the season, averaging a stellar 1.31 DraftKings points per minute thanks to a career-high 23.2% rebound rate and 7.4% block rate. Even Gobert’s 17.8% usage rate ties a career-high mark. If you can get into his price range, Gobert makes for a top option at the center position.
Deandre Ayton (DraftKings: $6,200; FanDuel: $6,800) has shown some worrisome trends in playing time lately, even when you factor in the blowouts. He hasn’t eclipsed 30 minutes in a game since February and has tallied north of 40 DraftKings points once in his last 10 starts. He is averaging 1.11 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but the Suns are 10.5-point favorites against arguably the worst team in basketball, and Ayton once again runs the risk of seeing his playing time cut short. Fortunately, Ayton is only $6,200 on DraftKings, which makes him a far more palatable option.
Moses Brown (DraftKings: $4,300; FanDuel: $4,400) is coming off a monster 20-point, 16-rebound 5-block double-double on Tuesday night and should continue to get playing time on a rebuilding Thunder squad. While Al Horford is expected back tonight, Brown still logged 27 minutes with Horford active on Saturday against Dallas. He is producing a stellar 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games played (slightly skewed due to his last performance) and could once again be in line to see at least 27 minutes against the Hawks. Brown is still priced in the low $4,000 range on both FanDuel and DraftKings,
Alex Len (DraftKings: $3,400; FanDuel: $3,500) is never a fun value option and is always liable to leave you wondering why you rostered him against after swearing him off for good many times before. Still, he is dirt cheap on a night where Scott Brooks will need to stick with bigger lineups against Gobert and the Jazz. It’s very possible that Len will see upwards of 28 to 30 minutes, but even if he only gets 24 like he did on Tuesday, there is still room for a nice performance. He averages 1.01 DraftKings points per minute for his career and is averaging just shy of that on the year. You could do worse than Len at $3,400 on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention: Enes Kanter
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