This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS picks and strategy article. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully after reading this article you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA daily fantasy picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Free Expert Tennis Projections With one of tennis' grand slam events ongoing, we've made Awesemo's expert Tennis DFS projections FREE for the entirety of the French Open. These Tennis DFS Projections are generated from 1,000 simulations and data points, using surface-based statistics for each player. Our projections will not only give you expected points for DraftKings, but a statistical projection breakdown that includes sets won, games won, aces and clean sets.I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: There is only a single game tonight, so this article will be formatted a bit differently than normal. I have broken down the players that I am most interested in into three tiers based on salary. The information in this article should point you in the right direction when used in conjunction with our Showdown projections. Pricing and strategy drastically differ by site since the single game formats are not the same. Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock for more in-depth strategy discussions.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 4
Stars
Luka Doncic ($12,800 DraftKings/$16,000 FanDuel) has been excellent in this series, with the exception of Game 4 when he was playing through a strained neck. Overall, Doncic has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute and 39.2 minutes per game. He has a 42.4 percent usage rate and 52.9 percent assist rate as he has had to carry the Mavericks even more than usual since Kristaps Porzingis is having a truly awful series. Doncic is the clear top option tonight and is projected a full 10 points (58.78) ahead of Kawhi Leonard, who is the next-closest player in the Awesemo NBA daily fantasy projections.
Kawhi Leonard ($11,600 DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) has also had a strong series, though he struggled in his last game. Through the first five games of the series, Leonard has produced 1.32 DraftKings points per minute and has averaged 40.2 minutes per game. Leonard is the top option from the Clippers if his salary can fit in lineups, but Doncic is the priority between the two because he offers a different level of production than Leonard.
Paul George ($10,800 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel) isn’t quite as good as Leonard, but he also isn’t quite as expensive. He is a strong consolation prize if unable to find the salary to pair Leonard with Doncic. George has averaged 39 minutes per game and 1.17 DraftKings points per minute, with a 27.6 percent usage rate, 13.1 percent rebounding rate and 20.8 percent assist rate through the first five games of the postseason.
Mid-Range
Kristaps Porzingis ($9,000 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) has been absolutely awful so far in the postseason. Porzingis averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage rate and 15.6 percent rebounding rate in 40 games played alongside Doncic during the regular season. In the postseason, however, Porzingis has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute with an 18 percent usage rate and 8 percent rebounding rate. This isn’t a case of poor shooting over a five-game sample, he is playing like a completely different player than he was during the regular season. Porzingis has plenty of underlying talent, so it’s certainly possible that he will flip a switch and post a big game tonight, but it’s extremely difficult to justify paying his salary unless it’s for ownership purposes in large-field GPPs.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/04/2021″ team=”clippers”]
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($7,600 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has played a lot of minutes for Dallas so far this series. Hardaway started 13 games alongside Doncic and Porzingis during the regular season and produced 0.81 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.8 percent usage rate. Through the first five games of the series against the Clippers, Hardaway has only averaged 0.73 DraftKings, but he has averaged 36.2 minutes per game. The playing time makes the per-minute production less of a concern since he projects as a reasonable value, even at his reduced production. Hardaway’s usage rate in the postseason is also 20.4 percent, so his per-minute production could move closer to his regular season average as the sample size increases.
Marcus Morris ($6,600 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is a beneficiary of the Clippers’ move to more small-ball lineups. In the first two games of the series, Morris averaged only five rebound chances per 36 minutes. In Game 3 Ivica Zubac was benched at halftime, and the Clippers have started a small lineup in every half since then. Since the beginning of Game 3, Morris has averaged 10 rebound chances per game. Morris produced only 0.41 DraftKings points per minute in the first two games of the series but has followed it up with 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in the next three games. In the two games that Zubac has not started, Morris has seven and eight rebounds compared to two, two and one rebounds in the games that Zubac started. Morris’s average playing time is also deceiving, as he fouled out of two games and lost about seven minutes of playing time to a combination of garbage time and foul trouble in a third game. He played 42.1 minutes in Game 5, and while it is tough to project that many minutes tonight, he should play at least another 36 to 38 minutes as long as he avoids foul trouble. If he gets the minutes, he should be able to exceed his NBA daily fantasy projection of 23.71 points.
Reggie Jackson ($6,200 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) has started each of the last three games. In those games, he has played 34, 30 and 29 minutes. During the regular season, Jackson averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute and 24.8 minutes per game in 19 starts alongside George and Leonard. In his three postseason starts, Jackson has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and 31 minutes per game.
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Value
Nicolas Batum ($5,000 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) has started the last two games in place of Zubac. In those two games, Batum has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game. During the regular season, Batum started 25 games alongside George and Leonard. He averaged a similar 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in those games while playing 27.9 minutes per game.
Ivica Zubac ($4,000 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is difficult to trust because he has been a defensive liability in this series and his playing time is volatile. That said, he played 17.6 minutes off the bench two games ago and 20 minutes off the bench last game. Zubac averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season, so he has upside at his inexpensive price tag if he gets about 20 minutes tonight. He has struggled to produce in the postseason, however, averaging just 0.70 DraftKings points per minute in 18 minutes per game through the first five games.
Dwight Powell ($2,800 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) played a combined 18 minutes in the first four games of the series before logging 22 minutes in the fifth game. There is no way to know exactly how much he will play tonight, but the fact that his increased playing time coincided with a Mavericks win inspires confidence. Powell was a plus-10 in that game, which was the best of Dallas’ center options. Powell has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, including the postseason, so he is worth a look as a cheap option that will allow for paying up for the desired stars.
Boban Marjanovic ($2,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) started the last game in place of Maxi Kleber. The Mavericks won, so they could use the same starting lineup tonight. It is worth noting, however, that Marjanovic was a minus-9 in his 20.1 minutes, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Rick Carlisle decides to replace him with Powell (or to move Kleber back to the starting lineup). If Marjanovic starts, his playing time is still extremely volatile. It is possible that he will play the first six minutes of the game and never return, or he could play another 20 minutes. He is a strong per-minute fantasy producer with 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games played this season, including the postseason, and 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in nine starts since the beginning of last season. His price point is cheap enough that there isn’t too much risk in rostering him if he starts; just be aware that his range of outcomes is still very wide. Marjanovic rates out as the No. 1 overall value play on the slate tonight in the Awesemo NBA daily fantasy projections.
Be sure to check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Loughy and Josh!
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