NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Projections, Strategy & Advice

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 6

Point Guard

Russell Westbrook (DraftKings: $11,000; FanDuel: $11,600) needs no introduction or explanation at this point. He’s routinely posting triple-doubles before the fourth quarter starts and is somehow still stuck at $11,000 on DraftKings. Not only is Westbrook producing an eye-popping 1.68 DraftKings points per minute since the start of April, but he’s leading the league in minutes with 37.8 per game. It simply doesn’t get any better than that. Westbrook is the top NBA DFS pick in basketball right now thanks to his otherworldly per-minute production and league-leading playing time. He doesn’t need to have an efficient night shooting in order to drop 70-plus fantasy points, and the triple-double bonus on DraftKings only adds more value to his nightly performance. Westbrook isn’t the same priority at $11,600 on FanDuel where he loses more points for turnovers and doesn’t receive bonuses, but I’m never going to tell you to fade him in any format given his current form. After all, he is holding the No. 1 spot in the Awesemo expert NBA DFS projections tonight.

Stephen Curry (DraftKings: $10,600; FanDuel: $9,900) has been on another planet lately, averaging an outrageous 37.1 points per game in 18 starts since the beginning of April. His peripherals–specifically assists–have taken a hit, but most of that is the result of Golden State having no other competent scorers that can consistently keep them competitive. Curry is producing 1.57 DraftKings points per minute on 36.6 percent usage, 24 percent assists and 9.3 percent rebounds over that same span, while averaging just over 35 minutes per game. He won’t receive the three-point bonus which is so valuable on DraftKings, but at $9,900 on FanDuel Curry becomes a steal. The only issue with tonight’s matchup against the lowly Thunder is the Warriors are 14-point favorites at home. Still, Golden State can’t beat teams without heavy lifting from Curry right now, so it would be no surprise to see him score 40 points through three quarters with the way he’s been shooting.

Trae Young (DraftKings: $9,400; FanDuel: $8,600) hasn’t been in the same elite company as players like Westbrook or Curry this season, but he’s still averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute and is capable of producing some huge game as evidenced by two sixty-plus-DraftKings points games over his last nine starts. He’s less reliable, too, but Young’s salary has fallen enough to reflect that downside. He’ll face a Pacers team tonight that is playing at a league-leading 105.9 pace over the last month while ranking 18th in defensive rating (113.2) over that span. This game provides a huge pace boost for Young and the Hawks and is sporting a slate-high 240-point total. Despite what feels like a somewhat underwhelming campaign for Young, he is still sporting a 33 percent usage rate and 45.6 percent assist rate across 34 minutes per game. With Atlanta sitting at fifth place in the Eastern Conference, there’s no reason Young should continue to log big minutes tonight assuming things remain competitive.

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Kyle Lowry (DraftKings: $7,700; FanDuel: $8,200) and the Raptors are next in line to draw the dream matchup against Washington. While the Wizards’ defense has shown some improvement of late, they still lead the league in pace and are second behind only Indiana over the last month. Their last three games have seen an average total score of 271 points! Needless to say, we should absolutely be targeting Raptors players tonight, including Lowry on DraftKings.

Lowry has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he’s also averaging the sixth most minutes per game (36.2) since the start of April. Combine that with a huge pace-up spot against the Wizards in a 235.5 O/U game where the Raptors are 3-point home favorites and he becomes very difficult to ignore at $7,700 on DraftKings.

Frank Jackson (DraftKings: $5,100; FanDuel: $5,200) should get plenty of run tonight with Hamidou Diallo, Josh Jackson and Cory Joseph out. Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee are also sidelined. Jackson has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute with the Pistons this season, but there won’t be a ton of competition for usage and touches tonight with most of Detroit’s key players on the shelf. He should draw the start with Dwane Casey having no real options behind him (unless Wayne Ellington is active for the first time in two weeks) and could be looking at around 35 minutes against the Grizzlies. That’s enough to target Jackson at a low-$5,000 price point tonight.

UPDATE: Cory Joseph has been upgraded from out to questionable and Killian Hayes has landed on the injury report and is now questionable. Pay close attention to these updates as we draw closer to lock and be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock at 5 p.m. ET where we’ll keep you up to date with instant analysis on all breaking news.

Honorable Mention: Saben Lee, Mychal Mulder, Alex Caruso

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Shooting Guard

Fred VanVleet (DraftKings: $8,000; FanDuel: $8,000) looks similar to Lowry tonight, except he’s viable on both FanDuel and DraftKings with shooting guard eligibility on both sites. VanVleet also gives us 1.10 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but thanks to Nick Nurse’s proneness to run super condensed rotations, he’s averaging more minutes per game (36.2) than every player not named James Harden or Julius Randle.

As we discussed earlier with Westbrook, per-minute production is paramount in defining quality DFS options, but minutes are equally important. For example, even throughout this torrid one-plus month run that Westbrook has been on, he’s still averaging fewer DraftKings points per minute than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Out of context you’d think Antetokounmpo is a better play most nights at a comparable price point, but Westbrook has been averaging eight full minutes per game more than Giannis over that stretch. Those additional minutes are invaluable, especially for players like VanVleet who plays alongside solid teammates like Lowry and Pascal Siakam. VanVleet has played 40-plus minutes in four of his last five games, which makes me perfectly content paying $8,000 for 1.10 DraftKings points per minute against the Wizards. He’s one of the best NBA DFS value picks tonight, according to the Awesemo NBA DFS projections.

Terry Rozier (DraftKings: $7,600; FanDuel: $6,200) is dirt cheap on FanDuel on a night where the Hornets are likely to be without several key players again. The matchup against Chicago makes for an ultra-slow-paced game between two teams that rank bottom five in pace over the last month and are middle of the road in defensive rating. That said, Charlotte should be missing Miles Bridges, Devonte’ Graham, Cody Martin and obviously Gordon Hayward. Rozier has only averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in 214 minutes with Graham, Hayward and Bridges off the floor, but his 26.5 percent usage rate and 24.4 percent assist rate are enough to feel good about him at only $6,200. Moreover, Rozier has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute on the season even with LaMelo Ball on the floor, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a relatively small sample where he’s underperformed. It’s also very helpful that Rozier has shooting guard eligibility tonight.

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Andrew Wiggins (DraftKings: $7,100; FanDuel: $7,400) has posted 26 points in back-to-back games, both of which came against the Pelicans. He’s also playing huge minutes in competitive games of late. That said, he’s still only averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in the most recent four-game stretch while Kelly Oubre has been sidelined and averages a 0.96 DraftKings points per minute across 1097 minutes with Oubre off the court this season.

Wiggins is a fine play once again, but not someone worth jamming in. Rarely is Wiggins going to kill you by fading or coming in underweight on him, as he’s eclipsed 50 DraftKings points once in 66 starts this season. I’m also legitimately concerned about the blowout risk here, as the Thunder are actively trying to lose as many games as possible even if it looks like they’ve stayed competitive in some recent outings.

Brad Wanamaker (DraftKings: $3,400; FanDuel: $3,900) logged 31 minutes as the first man off Charlotte’s bench the other night, and was relatively productive against the Pistons. I still have some concerns about Wanamaker tonight, though, as his head coach is James Borrego (you know why that’s a problem), and Wanamaker would still have to produce even if he gets the minutes again. Last game Wanamaker played almost all of his minutes alongside Terry Rozier and about half of them with LaMelo Ball, so there’s a good chance he’s going to have to be very efficient again in order to be of any value—and that’s assuming Borrego actually favors him off the bench over Malik Monk (DraftKings: $4,600; FanDuel: $4,700). I’d rather take some shots on a virtually unowned Monk in tournaments even though he’s more expensive.

UPDATE: With Grayson Allen now ruled out, Desmond Bane (DraftKings: $3,600) becomes a far superior option to Wanamaker at the shooting guard position. He started and played 26 minutes with Allen out two games ago, and that was despite recording two early fouls in the first quarter. He also logged 31 minutes last night after Allen left with an abdominal strain very early on. While Bane hasn’t been a stellar per-minute fantasy scorer this season (0.81), a potential 30 minutes against the dreadful Pistons is more than enough to like him at a near minimum salary price point.

Honorable Mention: De’Anthony Melton

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/06/2021″ team=”Nets”]

Small Forward

Luka Doncic (DraftKings: $10,900; FanDuel: $10,900) has played the third wheel to Westbrook and Curry lately, but he’s still producing at an elite rate, averaging 1.63 DraftKings points per minute over his last 10 starts. Doncic draws a great matchup against the Nets tonight, who rank 24th in defensive rating and play at the league’s 11th fastest pace. He hasn’t really benefited from Kristaps Porzingis’ absence this season, but still averages 1.54 DraftKings points per minute on 36.3 percent usage, 42.5 percent assists and 13.9 percent rebounding across 1261 minutes with him off the floor.

Doncic has as high a ceiling as anyone on tonight’s slate, and given the insane amount of value we’ve seen open up every night pre-lock, it probably won’t be difficult to roster him in the same lineups as Westbrook or Curry.

Kevin Durant (DraftKings: $9,900; FanDuel: $10,600) has played 693 minutes without James Harden this season, averaging 1.51 DraftKings points per minute on 32.5 percent usage, 28.3 percent assists and 11.3 percent rebounding. He’s no longer on a minutes restriction as evidenced by back-to-back 40-minute games against Milwaukee, and could see similar minutes tonight with the Nets being only 3.5-point favorites on the road. While Brooklyn isn’t likely to finish first in the conference, they’re only one game ahead of the Bucks for second in the East, and have the Mavericks and Nuggets up next on the schedule. Expect Steve Nash to continue running Durant for big minutes in close games, leaving plenty of meat left on the bone tonight at $9,900 on DraftKings.

Saddiq Bey (DraftKings: $6,300; FanDuel: $6,400) being viable recently is the product of late-season basketball. Dwane Casey has decided to rest most of his key players for the majority of games to close out a lost season, resulting in big minutes and expanded roles for players like Bey. He should be primed for huge minutes again tonight with Casey running an eight-man or potentially even a seven-man rotation against the Grizzlies. That’s really all we need to know about Bey tonight; big minutes, elevated usage and a super-condensed rotation is what makes for a lot of good plays around this time of the year. That will come with a bit of popularity, as he’s currently at a shade under 20% in the Awesemo NBA DFS ownership projections.

Caleb Martin (DraftKings: $3,900; FanDuel: $5,000) should be primed for another 30-plus-minute role in the starting lineup tonight with Charlotte missing several key players for the second straight game. Martin played 34 minutes last time out, managing a respectable 21 percent usage rate while producing just shy of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute on the night. He’s still cheap enough on DraftKings to plug in as a value play in stars and scrubs lineups, which we’ll likely be deploying plenty of again tonight. Martin averages 0.81 DraftKings points per minute on the year, which at his price point, and across a potential 33-35 minutes puts him firmly in play against the Bulls.

Honorable Mention: Kent Bazemore; Joe Harris (FanDuel); Tim Hardaway Jr. (DraftKings)

Power Forward

Pascal Siakam (DraftKings: $8,100; FanDuel: $8,600) is in the same boat as Lowry and VanVleet tonight, and you could pretty much use the same analysis on him as we already did for both of his teammates. While Siakam has been a slightly better per-minute fantasy producer (1.14) than both of his guard counterparts, it’s the huge playing time and matchup against Washington that makes him worthwhile at an $8,000-plus price tag.

With O.G. Anunoby and Chris Boucher already ruled out, Nick Nurse is likely going to give his big three upwards of 40 minutes in a competitive game, which against the Wizards is about all you could ask for.

Draymond Green (DraftKings: $7,200; FanDuel: $7,900) is one of only a few players capable of eclipsing 60 fantasy points while attempting fewer than five field goals in a game. That’s both a blessing and a curse, though, because if Green isn’t producing with monster peripherals, he sure isn’t making up for that as a scorer. Nevertheless, he has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the last month while dishing out assists at a team-leading 34.4 percent clip. Tonight, he’s projected for right at 40 points, per our NBA DFS projections. Green’s 14.0 percent rebound rate also leads the Warriors over the span. Adding more to the appeal is Green’s 2.5 stocks per game, which mitigates his nonexistent 13 percent usage rate.

Green should have his way with the Thunder tonight, with the only concern being a blowout and limited minutes for Golden State’s starters. Aside from that, everything looks great; Oklahoma City is playing at the league’s third fastest pace while ranking 26th in defensive rating over the last month. If the Thunder can somehow manage to keep this game even remotely close, Green & Co. are going to have real GPP-winning potential tonight.

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Isaiah Stewart (DraftKings: $6,500; FanDuel: $5,800) is power forward eligible on FanDuel, which makes him a far more appealing play than he would be on DraftKings. The rookie big man has come back to earth in recent starts, but he’s still averaging right around a fantasy point per minute on the season and has 30-plus-minute upside tonight in the starting lineup. He would’ve played far more minutes in recent games had he not been in significant first-half four trouble, so I’m not too worried about Jahlil Okafor being a healthy option off the bench.

Stewart is an excellent shot blocker and quality rebounder who can rack up some healthy points-rebounds double-doubles when he gets the playing time. Going up against a talented offensive center in Jonas Valanciunas isn’t exactly an appealing matchup for Stewart, but he’s $5,800 on FanDuel and playing for a Pistons team that will possibly be running another 7-8-man rotation on Thursday. This isn’t to say he doesn’t have value on DraftKings at $6,500, either. He’s just a lot more enticing on FanDuel.

Sekou Doumbouya (DraftKings: $3,500; FanDuel: $4,700) will be another beneficiary of Detroit’s tanking efforts tonight, and should be penciled in for anywhere between 30-34 minutes tonight against Memphis. He’s not a particularly good per-minute player (0.67), but Doumbouya is $500 from the floor on DraftKings and won’t run the risk of being benched no matter how poorly he’s playing. According to our Boom/Bust tool, Doumbouya has the highest Boom rating (32.8%) on the slate and a 23.2 percent chance of being in the optimal lineup tonight. All of this thanks to a dirt cheap price point and a Detroit virtually guaranteed minutes against Memphis.

Honorable Mention: P.J. Washington, Davis Bertans

Center

Clint Capela (DraftKings: $8,600; FanDuel: $8,000) is playing his second of a back-to-back tonight, but logged only 24 minutes in Wednesday’s blowout win over the Suns. He should absolutely feast against the Pacers frontcourt tonight, which remains without Myles Turner and could potentially be without Goga Bitadze, too. Capela’s price point on DraftKings makes him tough to get to, but $8,000 on FanDuel could present a nice opportunity to get to a relatively low-owned center with huge upside tonight.

The Pacers lead the league in pace since the start of April, and are a whopping 5.2 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Turner off the floor this season. Capela offers legitimate 20-20 upside tonight and is going mostly overlooked because he’s slightly overpriced. I wouldn’t go anywhere near him in cash, but as a contrarian tournament pivot in the highest projected scoring game of the night, Capela has some appeal.

Khem Birch (DraftKings: $5,400; FanDuel: $5,800) should draw another start with Chris Boucher out, and could do some serious damage against a wildly unimposing Wizards frontcourt. Birch is averaging a very respectable 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and 32.4 minutes in seven games since Boucher went down, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll see a role reversal tonight.

Normally $5,400 and $5800 might be a bit expensive for Birch, but the sheer amount of possessions we’re going to see in this game places him firmly in play. Think of it this way: even if both teams shoot miserably tonight, there’s still going to be an excessive amount of rebound, shot-blocking and put-back opportunities for Birch in an up-tempo spot against the Wizards.

The center position is limited tonight, and that includes value options towards the bottom of the player pool. Ivica Zubac (DraftKings: $5,100; FanDuel: $4,300) is right around a fantasy point per minute this season and could see some extended run against an oversized Lakers frontcourt tonight. He’s averaging just shy of 29 minutes per game in two prior meetings with them and is only $4,300 on FanDuel.

Willie Cauley-Stein (DraftKings: $3,000; FanDuel: $4,300) could draw another start with Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber out, but is as much of a wildcard as anyone tonight. Fortunately, you’re paying the bare minimum for Cauley-Stein on DraftKings, and he’s got an enticing matchup against the Brooklyn Nets and a decrepit DeAndre Jordan or whoever Nash decides to slot in at the five. The hope here is that Cauley-Stein can get between 24-27 minutes and produce somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a huge “if” though, and he should be avoided if more value opens up at the position.

Kevon Looney (DraftKings: $4,200; FanDuel: $4,000) has tallied north of 20 DraftKings points in one of his last 10 games, so his discounted price point is more than warranted. That said, he’s facing the Thunder tonight in a game between two top-four paced teams over the last month. He played 32 minutes last game, but much of that was likely due to the Pelicans’ jumbo frontcourt combination of Steven Adams and Zion Williamson. That’s not a huge issue against the Thunder and I doubt Steve Kerr will be too concerned about playing the matchups tonight. While Draymond Green is the only player getting any run at the five other than Looney, Kerr could easily drop Looney back down to 24-26 minutes tonight – and that’s assuming this game doesn’t blow out. Looney is Awesemo’s No. 3 overall value play in the NBA DFS projections.

Honorable Mention: Nikola Vucevic (FanDuel), Jonas Valanciunas, Isaiah Roby

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Author

Dave Loughran

Dave "Loughy" Loughran has been a fixture in the daily fantasy community since not long after its inception, quitting his career as a Drug and Alcohol therapist to become a full-time DFS analyst, player and media personality in 2014. Loughy is the host of "Awesemo Radio" on SiriusXM Fantasy, qualified for the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship, and was featured in the Washington Post and other publications for his success as a player. You can find him on Twitter at @Loughy_D where he'll likely be ranting about the miserable life of a Philadelphia sports fan, using "fella" in almost every tweet, or via email at [email protected].