NBA DFS Deep Dive for DraftKings & FanDuel | Friday, January 22

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 22

Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons (-3): 216

Houston Rockets

The Rockets will be without John Wall, Dante Exum, Danuel House and Christian Wood. Wood is the new addition to the injury report and his absence should move DeMarcus Cousins into the starting lineup.

Cousins is one of the top values on the slate as he is likely to start in place of Wood. Cousins played 23.5 minutes in the only game that he has started this season. I don’t feel confident projecting more than 24 minutes from him tonight since that game he started is the only time that he has exceed 20 minutes this season, but there is at least a path for more minutes depending on his conditioning and how cautious the Rockets are being with him. Even if he plays 22 to 24 minutes, he projects as an excellent value as he has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Victor Oladipo played 31.3 minutes against Phoenix on Wednesday after playing about 32 minutes in his Houston debut. The playing time is a little bit concerning, but he was averaging over 34 minutes with the Pacers this season so my expectation is that his minutes increase sooner than later. Oladipo has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.7 percent usage rate and 38.5 percent assist rate in his first 63 minutes with Houston. We obviously shouldn’t expect that type of production to continue, but it highlights the fact that this offense is running through him for as long as Wall is out. Oladipo led the team in touches and potential assists in each of his first two games and he attempted at least 22 shots in each game as well. The Pistons rank 25th in pace this season but they also rank 25th in defensive rating. This looks like another good spot for Oladipo.

Jae’Sean Tate played 37.2 minutes on Wednesday and is likely to see minutes into the mid-thirties again tonight with House and Wood both sidelined. Tate has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season. He isn’t a great contributor in any one category, but he gets enough done while he’s on the floor to be a decent value on this short-handed Houston team.

Eric Gordon has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and he averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in games where Houston had their starting point guard but didn’t have Harden over the last couple of seasons. It’s a similar situation tonight with Oladipo serving as the “point guard”. Gordon’s minutes have been staggered with Oladipo’s, so he is running the second unit and gains production there. He isn’t the most exciting option, but he can be a useful mid-range value option because he has small forward eligibility.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMarcus Cousins ($4,400), Victor Oladipo ($8,000)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMarcus Cousins ($4,500), Eric Gordon ($5,200), Jae’Sean Tate ($4,600)

Detroit Pistons

Killian Hayes remains out for Detroit and Josh Jackson is probable.

Derrick Rose and Mason Plumlee are both underpriced for their ceilings, but they are still risky options since their playing time can vary from game to game. Rose has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the team with a 29.7 percent usage rate. He has averaged 24.1 minutes per game, but we get some games where he plays 26-plus minutes and others where he only plays 20 minutes. The volatility is nice in tournaments, but it does lower his floor as well. The same can be said for Plumlee, who has averaged 27.5 minutes per game but only played about 24 minutes in regulation on Wednesday. He’s been hurt at times this season by the Pistons’ willingness to play a three-center rotation that includes Plumlee, Isaiah Stewart and Jahlil Okafor. Okafor was a DNP-CD in two straight games prior to Wednesday, but then played 9.2 minutes on Wednesday. If Okafor doesn’t play, we can expect at least 28 minutes from Plumlee but, if he does, Plumlee probably will only play 24 or 25 minutes. We have no way of knowing what the rotation will look like in this game, so it makes Plumlee a risky option with a relatively high ceiling. He has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Jerami Grant leads the team with 36.7 minutes per game this season and he has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. He has been able to maintain the shooting efficiency that he had on low usage in Denver last season despite a massive increase in usage rate this season. He isn’t a priority on this slate because we can find plenty of underpriced options, but he does have a high ceiling if we can get him at low ownership.

Jackson is going to win someone a GPP soon, but who knows when that will be. He’s only been playing about 20 minutes a night, which doesn’t have much value. The reason I think he wins someone a tournament is that there really isn’t any reason that he is limited to 20 minutes. He is playing behind Wayne Ellington, so it’s not like he has a stud keeping him off the floor. Jackson has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season and will be a great play in whatever game he happens to get 26 minutes off the bench. There is no way of knowing when that will be, however, which is why he’s just a tournament dart throw.

Blake Griffin’s salary appears favorable on the surface, but he just hasn’t been the same player this season that we have seen in the past. He only has a 19.3 percent usage rate and he has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. In addition to a lower usage rate, 59.6 percent of Griffin’s field goal attempts this season have come from three-point range. Last season, only 44.6 percent of his field goals were from three and, since the start of the 2017-18 season, 38.3 percent of his field goal attempts have been three-pointers. He shot 24.3 percent from three last season and has shot 32 percent this season, so he’s not exactly someone that we want replacing his post-up game with three-pointers from a fantasy standpoint.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None


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Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets (-3): 228.5

Chicago Bulls

Wendell Carter is doubtful or Chicago. Patrick Williams is probable and Tomas Satoransky is no longer on the injury report.

I’m not entirely sure what to expect from the Bulls tonight with Carter doubtful. My best guess is that they start a wing in his place and move Lauri Markkanen to center. They could also start Daniel Gafford, which would make him a top value option.

Zach LaVine has been excellent this season. He leads the team with a 29.7 percent usage rate and 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He also leads the team in playing time with 35.6 minutes per game. The matchup with Charlotte isn’t appealing, however, as the Hornets rank 19th in pace and ninth in defensive rating this season. They’ve also been excellent at defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers this season, both in terms of limited possessions and also defensive efficiency, and LaVine is one of the league leaders in pick-and-roll possessions per game. This isn’t to say LaVine can’t do well, but there are other options that I would rather roster at his price point.

Markkanen is the most appealing piece of the Bulls in my opinion. His per-minute production can be expected to increase if he starts at center. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 12.7 percent rebounding rate in 367 minutes without a center on the floor since the start of last season compared to 0.91 DraftKings points per minute with an 11.1 percent rebounding rate in 983 minutes alongside Carter. He closed at center against the Rockets on Monday and, even if Gafford starts, I think there is a good chance that Markkanen will be the closing center tonight. Markkanen also leads the Bulls with 5.4 spot-up attempts per game. The Hornets have allowed 5.5 more spot-up attempts per game than the next closest team this season as a result of their emphasis on limiting pick-and-roll ball-handlers.

Coby White is always a high-upside option since he can score in bunches and has averaged 34.6 minutes per game this season. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.9 percent usage rate and 24.5 percent assist rate, but the usage rate can increase when he’s shooting well. I’m not prioritizing White tonight as there are too many other options on this massive slate, but he does have a nice ceiling for his price tag.

If Thaddeus Young or Otto Porter start, they will be reasonable secondary options. Young would probably be in line for 26-plus minutes and he has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season while Porter has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and his skillset sets up nicely for a matchup with a team that allows a lot of three-point opportunities.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Lauri Markkanen ($6,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Lauri Markkanen ($6,700), Coby white ($6,100), Thaddeus Young ($3,800)

Charlotte Hornets

Cody Zeller is probable tonight, which should move Bismack Biyombo back to the bench and also hurts P.J. Washington’s value because he’s unlikely to get as many back-up center minutes.

The Hornets have one of the best matchups possible tonight as the Bulls rank second in pace and 28th in defensive rating this season. It is difficult to predict which player from Charlotte will have a good game from night to night, but there should be at least one or two of them tonight.

Gordon Hayward leads the team with 34.5 minutes per game. He also leads the team with a 24.9 percent usage rate and is second with 1.09 DraftKings points per minute.

Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham both played about 38 minutes in their last game and they’ve averaged between 33 and 34 minutes per game for the season. Rozier is the main scorer out of the two, ranking third on the team with a 23.3 percent usage rate, and he has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. Graham is the primary facilitator with a 28.5 percent assist rate that is the second highest on the team. He has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute.

LaMelo Ball is the best per-minute producer on the team, which gives him a massive ceiling. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute and is second to Hayward with a 24.4 percent usage rate. He leads the team in assist rate at 37.4 percent and rebounding rate at 14.1 percent. The problem with Ball is that he has only averaged 25.2 minutes per game this season. There is a lot of risk in paying over $7,000 for a player averaging 25 minutes per game. There is also a lot of upside, however, because the matchup is great and he sometimes plays 30 minutes. I will only roster a maximum two of Rozier, Graham and Ball in the same lineup tonight.

Zeller played 19 minutes in the season opener and then left with a hand injury. Tonight will be his first time back on the floor. I haven’t seen yet how many minutes to expect from him, but he is close to minimum salary on DraftKings. Zeller averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and 24.3 minutes per game in 39 starts last season and he will be a strong value option tonight if we get word that he can play minutes into the mid-twenties.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier, Devonte’ Graham

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (-4): 217.5

Orlando Magic

Michael Carter-Williams is questionable tonight. If he returns, it could take some value away from Cole Anthony as it would be another capable ball-handler that could steal minutes.

Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon are the best fantasy producers on Orlando. The matchup against the Pacers is a tough one, but it could be a little easier if Myles Turner is out again as he is the league’s leading shot blocker. Vucevic has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute this season and leads the team in usage and rebounding rate. He also has a 20 percent assist rate which is fourth on the team. Vucevic will typically play 33 to 34 minutes in competitive games, but he played 42.9 minutes on Wednesday so there is obviously room for more. Gordon was limited early in the season, but he is now free to play 35 to 36 minutes a night. He has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 24.3 percent usage rate, 20.1 percent assist rate and 13.6 percent rebounding rate.

Anthony has averaged 28 minutes per game and 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.1 percent usage rate and 18.6 percent assist rate in seven starts since Markelle Fultz’s injury. There are better options on this slate given the tough matchup for Anthony, but he is still inexpensive enough that he makes sense if you’re playing multiple tournament lineups. Evan Fournier returned to the lineup last game and played about 28 minutes. He has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. He should be viewed similarly to Anthony.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,900), Aaron Gordon ($7,300)

Indiana Pacers

Turner is questionable after missing the last two games. If he is out, Domantas Sabonis will most likely start at center and see a bump in production. Doug McDermott has started the two games that Turner missed at power forward.

Sabonis is a strong play with or without Turner, but his value increases if Turner sits as he will get more minutes at center. Sabonis has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute alongside Brogdon and Turner since the start of last season compared to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute alongside Brogdon without Turner. He has averaged 37.7 minutes per game this season as well.

Malcolm Brogdon is second on the team with 36.7 minutes per game this season and he has averaged 37.9 minutes per game in 10 games since T.J. Warren’s injury. Brogdon has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season and still offers some value despite a relatively expensive price point.

Outside of Sabonis and Brogdon, I don’t see much to target on the Pacers as the salaries have risen on most of the secondary options since Warren has been out for 10 games and they have played several games without Oladipo as well. One spot that you can look in large field tournaments, however, is Jeremy Lamb. Lamb played just shy of 20 minutes in his first game back from injury on Wednesday. I think it is likely that the Pacers bring him along slowly and he plays about 20 minutes again tonight but, if I’m wrong, and he gets up to 24 minutes faster than I am expecting he would have value at a near minimum price tag.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,900), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,500), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,500)

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Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5): 222

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum is still out for Boston.

The Celtics played their first competitive game without Tatum on Wednesday against this same Sixers team. Only two players played more than 30 minutes for Boston, with Jaylen Brown logging 32.8 minutes and Marcus Smart leading the team with 34.1 minutes. I expect Brown to play a few more minutes tonight as he has averaged 33.6 minutes per game this season and typically gets at least 34 or 35 in competitive games. I don’t expect anyone else to top 30 minutes though, which basically limits my interest in this team to Brown and Smart.

Brown has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.9 percent usage rate and 14.2 percent assist rate in 233 minutes alongside Tatum this season compared to 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.3 percent usage rate and 29.3 percent assist rate in 202 minutes without Tatum on the floor. In the three games Tatum has missed, Brown has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.8 percent usage rate and 35 percent assist rate. While the per-minute production has been about the same with or without Tatum, there is no question that Brown has a higher ceiling without Tatum on the floor as his opportunities have increased substantially.

Smart has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in the three games that Tatum has missed with a 26.1 percent usage rate and 15.4 percent assist rate. I think that Smart’s usage will decrease as Kemba Walker plays more minutes, but he still has some value just based on playing time and the fact that Walker is likely to be limited again tonight.

The other spot where I think it’s worth looking on Boston is Tristan Thompson, especially on FanDuel. Thompson only played 20.9 minutes on Wednesday, but he lost several minutes to foul trouble. He lost minutes to blowouts in Boston’s previous two games but had played about 14 first half minutes. I think that if he can avoid foul trouble tonight, there is a good chance we get at least 25 or 26 minutes out of Thompson. He’s a $4,400 power forward on FanDuel, so there is some value there.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($8,500), Marcus Smart ($6,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($7,600), Marcus Smart ($6,200), Tristan Thompson ($4,400)

Philadelphia 76ers

Seth Curry is probable to return to the Sixers’ lineup tonight. This means that the Sixers will essentially be at full strength as they are only missing Vincent Poirier and Mike Scott.

Curry’s return should push Tyrese Maxey back to the bench and take minutes away from Maxey and Shake Milton. It is also likely to help keep Danny Green’s minutes in check as the Sixers no longer have a shortage of wings.

Joel Embiid has been amazing this season, averaging 1.58 DraftKings points per minute in 31.4 minutes per game. He played 32.9 minutes against Boston on Wednesday, scoring 42 points with 10 rebounds. We shouldn’t expect him to repeat those numbers, but he is one of the highest upside plays on the slate again tonight.

Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are worth of tournament consideration since they have relatively high ceilings, but I think that we can find better value at their price points. Harris has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game in 10 games with Embiid active this season while Simmons has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 33.2 minutes per game in 11 games alongside Embiid. He is more favorably priced on FanDuel than on DraftKings.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,100)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,000), Ben Simmons ($8,000)

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers (+7): 224

Brooklyn Nets

Kevin Durant is out tonight for Brooklyn. That opens up more production for Kyrie Irving and James Harden and could also increase minutes for a combination of Jeff Green, Joe Harris and DeAndre Jordan.

Irving and Harden played 40 minutes alongside each other in Wednesday’s double overtime game. In those 40 minutes, Harden had a 19.6 percent usage rate and Irving had a 31.3 percent usage rate. Durant was on the floor for 35 of those minutes and had a 23.7 percent usage rate. I don’t think we should take too much away from that, however, because it is extremely unlikely that Irving dominates usage alongside Harden long-term. Durant’s absence increases both player’s ceilings and I expect that their minutes are staggered as well. It’s tough to accurately predict what the production will look like this early in their time together, but Harden averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute in 55 games played with Westbrook last season and Irving averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 111 games played with both of Tatum and Brown when he was on Boston. Going back further, Irving averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in 118 games played with LeBron in Cleveland since the start of the 2015-16 season. I would expect Irving’s long-term production in games with Harden to settle around 1.2 to 1.3 fantasy points per minute based on his past production and the fact that he will be extremely productive in minutes without Harden on the floor.

Jordan only played about 24 minutes against Cleveland on Wednesday, which surprised me since the Cavs have a rotation of traditional centers. I was wrong on Wednesday and I could definitely be wrong again tonight, but I think that Durant’s absence sets the stage for Jordan to close this game. The closing lineup on Wednesday was Irving-Harden-Harris-Durant-Green and my guess is that Green slides into Durant’s spot and Jordan replaces Green tonight. The most likely alternative would be Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, but he only played 11.5 minutes on Wednesday. If Jordan does close, then he is likely to play 30-plus minutes. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Green played about 35 minutes in regulation last game as he closed in place of Jordan. Durant’s absence makes it very likely that Green closes again tonight since he can either close over Jordan again or close alongside Jordan. Green hasn’t been particularly productive this season with only 0.62 DraftKings points per minute, and I don’t expect that to change too much going forward since Irving and Harden are going to dominate usage and Jordan is going to dominate rebounds whenever he is on the floor. Still, Green is inexpensive and should get big minutes against Cleveland tonight, so he is a viable value option.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($10,800), Kyrie Irving ($9,000), DeAndre Jordan ($5,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($10,700), Kyrie Irving ($9,200), DeAndre Jordan ($4,800)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Darius Garland and Dylan Windler are questionable. Kevin Love and Matthew Dellavedova remain out.

Collin Sexton returned to the lineup last game and Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince made their Cleveland debuts. We have very quickly gone from one of the most short-handed teams in the league to a team with an abundance of rotation players.

The first place I looked at for Cleveland was the center position because Andre Drummond has been one of the best per-minute producers in the league this season, but the acquisition of Allen was likely to negatively affect his playing time. In their first game together, Drummond played 25.7 minutes and Allen played 31.2 minutes, with about 22 of those minutes coming in regulation. JaVale McGee was a DNP-CD, which is good news for this duo because a three-man center rotation would be terrible for everyone’s value. Even without McGee getting minutes, my expectation is that we see 26 to 28 minutes for Drummond and 20 to 22 minutes for Allen on most nights. There will obviously be nights where they exceed those ranges, but it makes it close to impossible to feel good about either player tonight since Drummond is still priced to be the clear number one center on Cleveland and Allen is still priced as if he is starting for the Nets.

I see virtually no value on this team at their current prices, with the possible exception of Sexton. He played about 28 minutes in regulation on Wednesday but finished the game with 38 minutes because of double overtime. The fact he played 38 total minutes in his first game back is appealing because maybe it means the Cavs are going to be willing to ramp up his playing time quickly. He leads the team with 37.4 minutes per game this season and, if he gives us 34 or 35 minutes tonight, he would have a nice ceiling for his salary. Still, I’m not confident that we get that from him tonight and there are plenty of other options at his price point that I can feel confident in.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-2): 221.5

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler, Avery Bradley and Meyers Leonard are still out. Tyler Herro is questionable and so is Chris Silva. Goran Dragic and Gabe Vincent are both probable.

If Herro plays, the only piece from Miami that I have much interest in is Bam Adebayo. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and 33.1 minutes per game in 19 games without Butler since the start of last season. Over those 19 games, he has posted a 24.3 percent usage rate and 31.6 percent assist rate.

If Herro sits, I am obviously still interested in Adebayo, but I will also be interested in Dragic, Kendrick Nunn and Vincent. Dragic has played at least 31 minutes in each of the games he has started and he has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 17 games without Butler since last season. Nunn has played 27, 34 and 35 minutes off the bench in his last three games. He will have an opportunity for substantial minutes against tonight if Herro is out and he has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. There is more risk here than there was last game, however, because his salary jumped from $4,000 to $5,400 on DraftKings. Vincent started Miami’s last game and played 28.1 minutes. He is still close to minimum salary. Vincent has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, but only 0.41 DraftKings points per minute in 49 minutes on the floor with Adebayo. He isn’t an exciting fantasy option but, if he starts, he will have a decent point-per-dollar projection at his price.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8.600)

Top FanDuel DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,800)

Toronto Raptors

Kyle Lowry is questionable tonight. Pascal Siakam is also questionable. Patrick McCaw remains out.

We have two huge moving pieces here, so we’ll need to wait for more information. If Lowry sits, Fred VanVleet should get a bump in production. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 17 games without Lowry since last season compared to 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in 55 games with Lowry active.

If Siakam is out, I expect Norman Powell to join the starting lineup. Powell has averaged 30.8 minutes per game and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute in 29 starts since the start of last season, so he would grade out as a strong value if he starts in place of Siakam (or Lowry). Terence Davis had a good game against Miami last time out and I think he would see a few more minutes if Siakam is out as well. Stanley Johnson and Chris Boucher could possibly pick up more minutes in Siakam’s place, too.

Boucher only played 22.7 minutes last game as the Raptors closed with Siakam at center and Terrence Davis in the lineup. I think that was an aberration and I expect Boucher to close this game- especially if Siakam is out. He has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a high ceiling for his salary on DraftKings. There is always risk in paying over $7,000 for a bench player, as we talked about earlier with LaMelo Ball, but that should also keep his ownership in check- especially because he is coming off a game where he only played 23 minutes. I would be more worried about his ability to close this game if the Raptors had used Baynes over him at center last game. The fact they closed small with Siakam just means we need Boucher to be on the floor instead of Terrence Davis.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,800 is better if Lowry is out), Norman Powell ($4,300 if starting for Lowry or Siakam), Chris Boucher ($7,300 is better if Siakam is out)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,800), Normal Powell ($4,800)

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Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves (+6): 225.5

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is another team with a lot of moving pieces right now. Danilo Gallinari, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter are all questionable. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kris Dunn remain out.

Trae Young has been relatively disappointing this season, but he has still averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 33.5 minute per game. His 32.5 percent usage rate is down from last season, but still one of the highest in the league, and he has a 41.1 percent assist rate. The matchup against the Timberwolves tonight is excellent. There are plenty of options to pay up for tonight, but Young is a strong play in this matchup.

Clint Capela had a monster game against the Pistons on Wednesday with 27 points and 26 rebounds in 39 minutes (including overtime). He also had five blocks and a steal. Some may consider rostering him tonight “point chasing”, but I think there is still value at this price tag. In his last five games, Capela has played 17 first half minutes in a blowout, 17 first half minutes in a blowout, 36 minutes, 39 minutes and 34 minutes (in regulation). He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season after averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with Houston last season. Before you look at the Houston number and conclude that Capela is playing over his head right now, keep in mind that he averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with a 24 percent rebounding rate without Westbrook on the floor last season. His rebounding rate so far this season is also 24 percent. Tonight he gets another favorable matchup against a banged-up Minnesota frontcourt and I’ll be going right back to him.

John Collins is relatively inexpensive for tonight’s favorable matchup against Minnesota. If the Hawks are short-handed on the wing then Collins will probably lose his back-up center minutes but he will play more total minutes. He played about 38 minutes in regulation on Wednesday and I would expect similar playing time tonight if Reddish, Hunter and Gallinari are out. If a combination of them is back, I think Collins is more likely to play 31 to 33 minutes, but he would probably be the back-up center which means he is getting more valuable minutes. I would rank him behind Young and Capela from this team, but I do think he is in a good spot.

Kevin Huerter and Solomon Hill have value depending on the status of the rest of the team. If any of the questionable players are available, it will be difficult to look to Hill. If at least two of the questionable players are available, it will be difficult to rely on Huerter as well. Hill played about 35 minutes in regulation with all three players out last game while Huerter played about 34 minutes.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,600), Clint Capela ($8,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,900), Clint Capela ($9,200), John Collins ($6,800)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns and Juan Hernangomez are out. Ricky Rubio is questionable and Josh Okogie is probable.

Naz Reid and Jarred Vanderbilt are likely to start in place of Towns and Hernangomez again tonight. Vanderbilt only played 17.5 minutes last game as Jaden McDaniels played well off the bench and stole some minutes and then the Timberwolves closed with a small lineup that had Okogie playing the four. If Vanderbilt is playing well, he is likely to get more minutes tonight as he played 29 minutes in a start against the Hawks two games ago. Vanderbilt has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 90 minutes alongside D’Angelo Russell so far this season.

Reid played 29.3 minutes last game after playing 27.8 minutes in his previous game. It appears that he has re-claimed his spot as the starter when Towns doesn’t play. His playing time is also  aided by Hernangomez’s absence since we saw Vanderbilt steal center minutes from Reid the last time that Towns was out. Reid has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute alongside Russell this season and 0.99 DraftKings points per minute alongside Russell since last season.

Russell has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.5 percent usage rate and 33.6 percent assist rate in nine games without Towns this season. The Hawks are in the top 10 in defensive rating this season, but they are also 10th in pace so the extra possessions should help to make up for any efficiency issues for Russell.

Malik Beasley has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.1 percent usage rate in nine games without Towns. He is a little bit more expensive than I would like, but still has upside in tournaments if he is available at low ownership.

If Ricky Rubio misses this game, Jordan McLaughlin and Anthony Edwards become highly volatile value options.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($8,700)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($8,400), Naz Reid ($4,700)

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (+2): 223.5

Dallas Mavericks

Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Josh Richardson and Maxi Kleber are all out again tonight.

Kristaps Porzingis started at center last game with Josh Green replacing Willie Cauley-Stein in the starting lineup. I think it is likely that we see that lineup again tonight against a Spurs team that starts LaMarcus Aldridge at center. Porzingis is more productive at center than at power forward, as most players are, so he sees an uptick in value if that is the case.

Luka Doncic has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 34.7 percent usage rate and 48.2 percent assist rate. He leads the team with 34.8 minutes per game as well. The Spurs are 12th in pace and 12th in defensive efficiency, so it looks like a middle of the road matchup for Doncic in that regard. As always, he has one of the highest ceilings on the slate.

Outside of Porzingis and Doncic, I don’t have much interested in Dallas, though you could throw some darts at Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke or Jalen Brunson in tournaments as they played 34, 33.9 and 31.7 minutes last game. Brunson is especially affordable on FanDuel.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,900), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,000), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,400), Jalen Brunson ($3,900)

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs rotation is at full strength except for Derrick White, who remains out.

The Mavericks are 22nd in pace and sixth in defensive rating this season, so it doesn’t look like a great spot for the Spurs. In addition to the relatively difficult matchup, most of the San Antonio players are priced up from playing games without Aldridge or DeRozan fairly recently.

The only Spurs players that I plan on looking to with any sort of regularity tonight are the main three of DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray and Aldridge. DeRozan has been the best fantasy producer this season with 1.19 DraftKings points per minute, followed by Murray who has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. DeRozan has averaged 33.7 minutes per game this season and Murray has averaged 32.6 minutes per game in 14 games without White active. Aldridge has been disappointing this season with only 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and 27.6 minutes per game. He hasn’t played in the fourth quarter in three consecutive games, either. There is definitely risk here due to playing time and performance, but we also have Aldridge at one of the lowest price points that we will ever see on DraftKings at $5,500. If Aldridge plays well, he is likely to play fourth quarter minutes too. So, there is upside despite the risk.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($7,900), LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,500)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($8,000)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers (-13): 219.5

Oklahoma City Thunder

We have the same injury situation that we have been dealing with for Oklahoma City as Al Horford is still sidelined. Isaiah Roby should get another start in his place.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear top offensive option for Oklahoma City as he leads the team in usage rate, assist rate and fantasy points per minute while averaging a team-leading 33.4 minutes per game as well. This is a tough spot for Gilgeous-Alexander against his former team as the Thunder are double-digit underdogs and there is a ton of blowout risk here. If the Thunder stay competitive, it is likely that Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game. He is a low-floor, high-ceiling option that I would only consider in GPPs.

Nobody on Oklahoma City played more than 28 minutes in a blowout loss to Denver last game, so there isn’t anyone I would consider a sneaky play in the event of a blowout- especially on an 11-game slate. Roby played 26.2 minutes and I expect we get another 26 to 28 minutes from him tonight. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season but his salary is quickly increasing. Mike Muscala is his direct back-up and is near minimum salary, but he also takes up a center position and is unlikely to play more than 20 to 22 minutes.

Darius Bazley, Luguentz Dort, George Hill and Hamidou Diallo are all fairly priced for their upside but they are low floor options that are difficult to trust based on playing time and per-minute production. If the Thunder play a competitive game there is a good chance that one of them does well, but guessing which one is difficult and there are a ton of better options on this slate. I don’t anticipate getting to them outside of large field tournaments and, even then, I doubt it’s with much frequency.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Los Angeles Clippers

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the obvious starting points here. They have averaged 1.33 and 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in 34.1 and 34.4 minutes per game this season, respectively. There is a good chance they don’t get full run tonight as heavy favorites, but there is less risk in rostering players from the team that is winning a blowout than the team that is losing since the winning team is performing well.

The rest of the Clippers are a mess as Lou Williams returned last game, which takes some value away from Patrick Beverley and Marcus Morris. We could see Morris close at center tonight if the game is close, but he still makes for a very thin play.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,700), Paul George ($9,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,500), Paul George ($8,700)

New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings (-4.5): 218.5

New York Knicks

The Knicks beat the Warriors last night and we don’t have an injury report from them yet for tonight. Alec Burks returned last night and played 31 minutes while Austin Rivers was sidelined.

The Knicks have one of the best DFS matchups as they take on the Kings. Sacramento has allowed 5.5 more points per 100 possessions than the next worst team this season while also playing at the eighth fastest pace in the league. Julius Randle should be able to absolutely dominate against this Sacramento frontcourt. He’s relatively expensive but looks like one of the top forward options on the slate given the matchup and his huge minutes. R.J. Barrett is also averaging about 37 minutes per game this season and makes for a strong mid-range option, though he’s more of a “last piece in” for me than a priority like Randle.

The point guard position is interesting for large field tournaments because we once again saw Elfrid Payton and Immanuel Quickley split 48 minutes last night. Payton played 37.2 minutes and Quickley played 10.8, so obviously the floor is very low for Quickley. Still, we have seen Quickley steal minutes when Payton plays poorly so Payton’s minutes aren’t safe either. I don’t trust either player, but Payton is underpriced if he plays 36 minutes and Quickley is underpriced if he finds a way to play 24.

Burks played 31 minutes in his first game back from injury and he looks like a good value tonight. He’s not priced for his normal role as he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in 27.6 minutes per game this season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,100), Alec Burks ($5,100)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,900), Elfrid Payton ($5,300)

Sacramento Kings

Marvin Bagley is probable and Hassan Whiteside is questionable. Whiteside’s absence doesn’t have a big impact as Chimezie Metu took his back-up center minutes last game.

As good as the matchup is for the Knicks, it is that bad for the Kings. The Knicks are the slowest team in the league and have allowed the third-fewest points per 100 possessions this season.

Bagley still offers some value as he has been closing games for the Kings and, as a result, he has played at least 29 minutes in three straight games. Bagley has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and his salary hasn’t increased yet to match his increased playing time. He still isn’t a priority because of the matchup and slate size, but he looks like a top option from this team.

Richaun Holmes and De’Aaron Fox both have high ceilings but are also difficult to get to at their prices and positions in this matchup. Holmes has played at least 34 minutes in our of his last five games and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season while Fox has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute and is likely to play 34-plus minutes as long as this game is competitive. He is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Marvin Bagley ($5,500), Richaun Holmes ($6,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Marvin Bagley ($5,800), De’Aaron Fox ($7,800)

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-1): 219.5

Denver Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr. is questionable tonight. If he returns, it will most likely move Will Barton back to the bench.

Nikola Jokic is one of the highest upside plays on the slate as always. Jokic has averaged 35 minutes per game this season with 1.65 DraftKings points per minute. I don’t think there is much that Deandre Ayton and the Suns are going to be able to do to slow him down tonight, so the only question is whether we can find the money to fit him into our DFS lineups.

Other than Jokic, I don’t see much other than secondary tournament options from the Nuggets. Jamal Murray always has a high ceiling, but Jokic is hurting his usage and assist rates this season. With so many options available that don’t have to play alongside Jokic, I can’t prioritize Murray at his salary. Porter’s return is likely to hurt the playing time of the Denver role players as well as we could see all of Monte Morris, P.J. Dozier, Paul Millsap and/or JaMychal Green lose minutes in addition to the minutes that Porter takes from Barton.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,000)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,200)

Phoenix Suns

Damian Jones and Dario Saric are out. Jalen Smith is available. I think there is a good chance that Smith replaces Kaminsky as the back-up center, but I doubt that it affects Ayton’s playing time.

Ayton has picked up a couple more minutes per game recently with Saric sidelined and I expect that to be the case again tonight as long as he stays out of foul trouble against Jokic. Ayton’s production has been down a bit this season, but he has still averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. His salary has started to rise to account for his increased playing time, but he still has merit as a tournament option assuming he will be low-owned.

Devin Booker’s minutes were still staggered with Chris Paul last game despite the return of Cameron Payne. That is a good sign as it should help both players be more productive in DFS, especially Booker since Paul has hurt his assist numbers this season. Paul is less expensive and has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season compared to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute for Booker, but he has also averaged 3.8 fewer minutes per game.

Cameron Johnson started and played 28.4 minutes last game. His salary has increased slightly, but he still projects as a strong point-per-dollar value as he has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season and it is likely that we get about 28 minutes again tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($7,200), Cameron Johnson ($4,400)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Chris Paul ($6,900), Cameron Johnson ($4,300)


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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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