This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I posted the first few games and then will update with the remaining games as I write them. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 25
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons (+6.5): 216.5
Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid is listed as questionable while Vincent Poirier and Mike Scott remain out. For now, I am assuming Embiid plays. If he doesn’t, Dwight Howard is likely to start in his place.
Embiid has been excellent this season as he continues to post MVP-type numbers for the 76ers. He has averaged 31.6 minutes per game this season and typically plays a few more minutes in competitive games. Embiid has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute while posting a 31.8 percent usage rate, 19.7 percent rebounding rate and 13.8 percent assist rate this season. He should be able to dominate this Detroit frontcourt as long as he suits up.
Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are the other two options to look at from the Sixers. Both look like secondary options on this massive slate, but they offer upside if you can’t quite afford Embiid or want to use your center position elsewhere. Simmons has averaged 33.5 minutes per game with 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games with Embiid active this season while Harris has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 34.3 minutes per game in 12 games with Embiid active.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,200)
Detroit Pistons
Derrick Rose is out again tonight. Blake Griffin isn’t on the injury report, so I assume he will be back on the floor tonight.
Delon Wright played 35.7 minutes without Rose and Griffin on Saturday and he has averaged 34.7 minutes per game in three starts with Rose and Killian Hayes inactive this season. Wright has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in those starts. Detroit has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate as the matchup against the Sixers is a tough one, but Wright has value based on expected playing time.
Jerami Grant has been surprisingly efficient this season and has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 27 percent usage rate. He has actually been more productive in games that Griffin has played than games he hasn’t, averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with Griffin active compared to 1.01 DraftKings points per minute when he is sidelined. Grant is a secondary option in a tough matchup on a massive slate, but he does still offer upside based on his usage rate and his average of 36.5 minutes per game this season.
Mason Plumlee and Josh Jackson are reasonable value options, but they both have concerns as well. Plumlee has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and 26.6 minutes per game this season. His playing time is affected by Detroit’s center rotation, as they use two centers in some games and three in others. Detroit used three centers in their last game against Philadelphia, but it looks like that was caused by foul trouble for both of Plumlee and Isaiah Stewart. If Plumlee can avoid foul trouble, I think that he can play 26-plus minutes here. The other problem is that the opportunity cost at center is extremely high, and getting 30 fantasy points from a center is likely to hurt your chances of winning regardless of their salary. Jackson has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he has had trouble finding consistent minutes. He only played 24.4 minutes last game with Rose and Griffin out, and now Griffin will be back. Jackson is capable of playing multiple positions so, if he is playing well, he should be able to steal playing time from the players ahead of him. He’s a low-floor, medium-ceiling GPP option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Delon Wright ($5,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Delon Wright ($5,600)
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic (-1): 212.5
Charlotte Hornets
We don’t have an injury report for Charlotte since they played last night, but I am assuming everyone will be available until I hear otherwise.
Nobody stands out as a great value from the Hornets as production tends to be unpredictable from game to game and their salaries have increased to account for their ceilings. Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham have averaged 33.8 and 33.9 minutes per game this season while Gordon Hayward leads the team with 34.9 minutes per game. Rozier has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and Graham has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute, while Hayward has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. LaMelo Ball leads the team with 1.28 DraftKings points per minute but has only averaged 24.8 minutes per game. He has 30-minute upside, but we can’t rely on it consistently. Any of these four are viable tournament options, but I don’t see any of them as priorities in a mediocre matchup against the Magic.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Orlando Magic
Update: Gordon is probable for tonight, which removes Gary Clark‘s value and lowers Cole Anthony‘s appeal somewhat.
Aaron Gordon was held out of last night’s game, so I am assuming he is questionable for tonight. Clark started in his place and played 35.4 minutes last night. If he starts again, he is a reasonable value option based on playing time, but we shouldn’t expect much out of him as he has averaged 0.52 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Nikola Vucevic has averaged 33.1 minutes per game this season and leads the team with 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. He is a high-floor, high-ceiling option as he contributes scoring, rebounds and assists. Gordon is a high-upside tournament option if he is able to play as he has logged at least 35 minutes in five of his last seven games and has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season. If he is active, we will want to keep an eye out for news about his playing time since the Magic were cautious the last time that he returned from injury.
Anthony had a good game against Charlotte last night and he still offers upside at his salary. He has now made nine starts with Markelle Fultz out and he has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 29.4 minutes per game. He has a 22 percent usage rate and 18.2 percent assist rate in those games. The matchup against Charlotte is relatively difficult, but Anthony has plenty of opportunities in this offense. He will also look better if Gordon is out since Clark is an extremely low-usage player who won’t take anything away from Anthony.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,400), Cole Anthony ($5,400)
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Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers (-2): 217.5
Toronto Raptors
Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam both sat out of yesterday afternoon’s game. We don’t have an injury report yet, so I am considering them questionable. If either of them sit, Fred VanVleet would be expected to take on a bigger role in the offense and Norman Powell would be expected to start. Stanley Johnson started and played 31.3 minutes yesterday and I would expect him to start again tonight if both players are out. O.G. Anunoby also benefits if both players are out as he will be asked to do more offensively and also get more rebounding chances sans Siakam.
Fred VanVleet has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.11 DraftKings points per minute without Lowry on the floor. He is a high-upside option with or without Lowry, but projects better if Lowry sits. Keep in mind, however, that this is a difficult matchup against the Pacers and there are a lot of strong guard options on this slate.
Chris Boucher has cooled off lately as we haven’t gotten as much playing time as we would like. Surprisingly, he only played about 21 minutes yesterday with Siakam out as the Raptors closed with an extremely small lineup that had a frontcourt of Anunoby and Johnson. While we could see the same thing tonight, there is nothing that is keeping Boucher off the floor in this matchup. If he is playing well, we could see 28 to 30 minutes from Boucher and his 1.45 DraftKings point per minute production. He is a low-floor option at his price point, but he also has a high ceiling and I expect that his recent game logs will lower his ownership in tournaments.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,900 — better if Lowry and/or Siakam are out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,900)
Indiana Pacers
We don’t have an injury report for Indiana yet since they played yesterday, but I am expecting them to have the same players available tonight that they had yesterday.
Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon are the starting points for this team as they are both high-upside options. Sabonis leads the team with 38.3 minutes per game and 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season. Brogdon is second on the team with 36.8 minutes per game and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. This is a mediocre matchup against the Raptors, who rank 19th in pace and seventh in defensive rating this season, but both of these players are good enough to overcome the tough matchup.
Myles Turner has quietly played huge minutes recently. In four games without Oladipo or Warren this season, he has averaged 39.4 minutes per game. One of those games went to overtime, but he still played 39.5 minutes in regulation. He leads the NBA with 4.2 blocks per game and he has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season. In the four games without Oladipo or Warren, he has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. It’s tough to prioritize Turner because the center position is so loaded, but he is likely to go overlooked tonight despite his recent playing time.
Jeremy Lamb is a low-floor, medium-ceiling option at a cheap price tag. He has played 19, 28 (23 in regulation) and 20 minutes in three games since returning from injury. Lamb has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute without either of Oladipo or Warren on the floor in 262 minutes since the start of last season. The most likely outcome tonight is that he plays around 20 minutes, but he has the potential for more as he is very capable of stealing minutes away from Justin Holiday or Doug McDermott. I like chasing low-owned, inexpensive players that produce at relatively high per-minute rates and have volatile minute projections in tournaments.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,800), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,600), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000), Myles Turner ($7,500)
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets (-7.5): 235.5
Miami Heat
Miami is without Tyler Herro, Avery Bradley, Jimmy Butler, Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard and Chris Silva. K.Z. Okpala is questionable. Goran Dragic and Gabe Vincent are probable.
Most of the value on Miami has dried up as pricing has become more efficient, but there are still several spots to look to tonight in a game that has the potential to be very high scoring. Bam Adebayo has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute and 33.6 minutes per game in seven games without Butler this season. If this game is competitive, Adebayo is likely to see several more minutes than average and he is also likely to be the reason why the game is competitive. He has a 26.8 percent usage rate, 15 percent rebounding rate and 34.3 percent assist rate in the games that he has played without Butler this season and he posted 41 points, nine assists and five rebounds in 38 minutes against this Brooklyn team on Saturday.
Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn both are beneficiaries of Butler and Herro missing this game. Nunn has played at least 32 minutes off the bench in four straight games and he has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in five games without Butler or Herro this season. Dragic has started four games without Butler or Herro this season and has averaged 31.2 minutes per game with 0.95 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 28.6 percent usage rate and 25.3 percent assist rate in those games, however, so his ceiling is much higher than 0.95 fantasy points per minute.
Andre Iguodala is a potential cheap value tonight with Harkless out and Okpala questionable. Iguodala played 26.1 minutes and closed the game against Brooklyn on Saturday. He has averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a strong point-per-dollar value at his salary if he gets another 26 minutes tonight. Keep in mind, however, that there is no guarantee he closes this game. Even with Harkless, and potentially Okpala, out, the Heat have alternatives to Iguodala and they could use Olynyk or Vincent in the closing lineup instead.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,500), Kendrick Nunn ($6,100), Goran Dragic ($6,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($9,600), Kendrick Nunn ($6,500), Goran Dragic ($5,800)
Brooklyn Nets
Spencer Dinwiddie and Nicolas Claxton are the only players on Brooklyn’s early injury report, so we should be getting another game of their new normal rotation.
It’s going to be difficult to trust any of James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving when all three players are active, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t target them in tournaments. In the two games that they have played together, Harden has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute, Irving has averaged 1.18 points per minute and Durant has averaged 1.41 points per minute. Durant leads the trio with a 29.1 percent usage rate, Irving is second at 28.6 percent and Harden only has a 19.3 percent usage rate. Harden is the leader in assist rate at 33.2 percent, followed by Durant at 22.8 percent and Irving at 20.6 percent. We shouldn’t read too much into these numbers since it’s only two games and there is virtually no chance that Harden maintains a usage rate below 20 percent. Still, I think there is a good chance that Durant is the most productive of the trio on a consistent basis and Harden and Irving mix in some ceiling games here and there. One other note is that Harden has been the one getting run with the second unit while Durant and Irving are on the bench. If that continues, Harden’s fantasy production should increase soon.
Outside of the main three, there isn’t much to see here. Joe Harris replaced Jeff Green in the starting lineup last game and played about 37 minutes while Green played about 26 minutes off the bench and closed over DeAndre Jordan. Harris is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings, but it’s still difficult to be too interested since he has a 14.3 percent usage rate in the games that he has played with all three of Irving, Durant and Harden.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant ($10,400), Kyrie Irving ($9,000), James Harden ($10,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant ($10,400), James Harden ($9,800), Kyrie Irving ($9,400)
Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers (+10.5): 212.5
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James is questionable, which means virtually nothing, and Anthony Davis is probable.
James and Davis have averaged 1.45 and 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in 32.4 minutes per game this season. Their relatively low minutes per game keeps their DFS salary lower than it should be for competitive games where they typically play at least 34 or 35 minutes. The Cavaliers have been a poor matchup this season as they rank 27th in pace and sixth in defensive rating, but James and Davis still have upside at their salaries — especially on DraftKings.
After James and Davis, there isn’t much to like here on a slate this big. Dennis Schroder has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 30.8 minutes per game this season while Montrezl Harrell has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in 24.8 minutes per game. The poor matchup keeps my interest in Schroder limited at his salary and I’m concerned that Harrell won’t close in a competitive game against the Cavaliers’ Andre Drummond-led frontcourt.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,300), Anthony Davis ($9,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($9,800), Anthony Davis ($10,100)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr. is out for Cleveland tonight. His absence opens up 30-plus minutes, but the Cavaliers have plenty of bodies who can fill them. Taurean Prince and Dylan Windler look like the two players most likely to soak up addition minutes, but neither grades out as a particularly strong option in a tough matchup against the Lakers as Prince is still priced up from his time with the Nets and Windler is still unlikely to play enough minutes to be viable.
I am less interested in the Cavaliers than I am in any other team on the slate. They have the lowest implied total on the slate and they’re double-digit underdogs against a Lakers team that has been the most efficient defensive team by a wide margin this season. They also are a team that was short-handed for several games but is now healthy. As a result, almost every player on the team is overpriced. Drummond has been the one player that we could be confident in for most of this season, but he has only averaged 23.7 minutes per game in his three games with Jarrett Allen this season. He isn’t priced for a timeshare, so there are a lot of center options that I would rather look to tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks (+1.5): 222.5
Denver Nuggets
Greg Whittington is the only player on Denver’s injury report, so it appears that their rotation will be at full strength.
Nikola Jokic has been one of the best players in the league this season, averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute and leading the Nuggets in usage rate (31 percent), rebounding rate (19.7 percent) and assist rate (42 percent). He has also averaged 35.7 minutes per game, which is up from 32.0 minutes per game last season, but in line with the 36.2 minutes per game that he averaged in games without Plumlee last season. Jokic is expensive at a position where there is plenty of upside available for less money, but that should keep his ownership in check and make him a great tournament option.
Jamal Murray has seen his rates take a hit this season with Jokic playing more minutes. Murray has only averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.9 percent usage rate and 18.3 percent assist rate compared to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.1 percent usage rate and 24.5 percent assist rate last season. Despite the decrease in his production, Murray is still a high upside tournament target because he is a capable scorer who will call his own number when his shot is falling.
Michael Porter played 35.1 minutes off the bench on Saturday, including about 10 minutes of overtime. I think that his playing time will continue to trend up as he gets back in game shape after a lengthy COVID-related absence, but he is still priced for his starting role so I don’t see much value here. His return hurts Will Barton, who loses minutes to Porter.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11.200)
Dallas Mavericks
Kristaps Porzingis was out for rest on Saturday and he isn’t on the injury report tonight so he should return to the starting lineup. Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell and Josh Richardson are still out for Dallas.
Luka Doncic has been excellent this season after getting off to a slow start and causing most of YouTube chat to promise never to roster him again. Doncic has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute overall and 1.76 DraftKings points per minute in his six games with Porzingis active. He also leads the team with 33.6 minutes per game this season and he should get a couple extra minutes as long as this game is close.
Porzingis was starting at center before he took off Saturday to rest. It remains to be seen if he starts against Jokic or if Dallas elects to go with Willie Cauley-Stein in this matchup. Porzingis looks like a strong option either way, but he is a better option if he starts at center. He has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in 53 games played with Doncic since the start of last season and he has averaged 31.8 minutes per game this season. Since the beginning of last season, Porzingis has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 1,335 minutes with Doncic on the floor overall. Porzingis has been the center for 433 of those minutes and he has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over that sample.
Jalen Brunson has been starting in place of Richardson and playing enough minutes to be a reasonable value option. He has only averaged 0.57 DraftKings points per minute with a 12.5 percent usage rate in 110 minutes alongside Doncic this season and 0.60 DraftKings points per minute alongside Doncic since the start of last season, so we shouldn’t be overly confident in his production, but there is merit to anyone playing 32-plus minutes at his salary.
Tim Hardaway Jr. was absolutely awful against the Rockets in a blowout loss on Saturday, but he still played 30.6 minutes and left a lot of minutes on the table in the blowout. If this game is competitive, we should get at least 33 or 34 minutes from Hardaway He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 22 percent usage rate overall this season and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.9 percent usage rate in five games with both of Doncic and Porzingis this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,700), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,200 — better if he starts at center)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,700), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700), Jalen Brunson ($4,300)
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (+4): 227
Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum is expected to return to action tonight while Kemba Walker, Romeo Langford and Payton Pritchard are out.
Tatum’s return lowers the ceiling of Jaylen Brown, though it is important to keep in mind that his per-minute production has been similar with and without Tatum this season. This means that his median projection doesn’t change much with Tatum’s return, but he is likely to lose a little bit in the way of scoring and assist opportunities so the ceiling is slightly lower. I haven’t seen a minutes limit for Tatum yet, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the Celtics look to ease him back into things since he hasn’t played a game since January 8th.
Even with Tatum back in the lineup, Brown looks like a strong option in a great matchup against the Bulls. Chicago ranks second in pace and 27th in defensive rating this season. Brown has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game in 10 games with Tatum active this season.
Marcus Smart and Jeff Teague should benefit from Walker’s absence. Smart has averaged 0.9 DraftKings points per minute and 33.4 minutes per game in nine games with Tatum active this season. He should benefit from the pace of this matchup against the Bulls and also from the sloppiness of the Bulls’ ball handlers. Chicago has the second-highest turnover rate in the league and Smart is capable of picking up plenty of defensive stats in addition to his offense. Teague has been somewhat stuck behind Pritchard this season, but Pritchard’s absence, combined with Walker’s absence, opens the door for him to get more playing time tonight. I don’t expect him to start, but I think it is likely that we get 22 to 24 minutes from Teague at an inexpensive price point.
Daniel Theis rejoined Boston’s starting lineup alongside Tristan Thompson. While this is good for Theis’ playing time, his per-minute production has been hurt by Thompson’s presence this season as he spends a lot more time outside the three-point line and away from the basket. Thompson projects as a decent point-per-dollar option if he gets 27 or 28 minutes in this matchup, but the opportunity cost at the center position keeps him from being a priority for me. He looks much better on FanDuel where he is a power forward.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($8,500), Marcus Smart ($6,400), Jeff Teague ($3,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($9,000), Marcus Smart ($9,600), Tristan Thompson ($4,000), Jeff Teague ($3,800)
Chicago Bulls
Wendell Carter is still out for the Bulls, which probably means that Daniel Gafford will start at center and Lauri Markkanen will close at center.
Zach LaVine has been the best fantasy producer on Chicago this season and he always gives us a high ceiling. He has averaged 35.6 minutes per game this season and 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the Bulls with a 29.5 percent usage rate and is first amongst Chicago starters with a 25.1 percent assist rate as well. The Celtics are in the middle of the pack in pace and defensive efficiency this season, and LaVine’s salary has decreased as a result of the relatively difficult matchup. There are a lot of strong guard plays tonight, but I really like LaVine’s upside at his current salary.
Markkanen played 35.9 minutes against the Lakers on Saturday and left nearly three minutes on the table due to garbage time. He’s played at least 32 minutes in four of his last five games and is underpriced for that amount of playing time. Markkanen has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season and his production has increased in the past when he has played center. Since the start of last season, Markkanen has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.7 percent usage rate and 11.3 percent rebounding rate in 850 minutes alongside LaVine and Carter. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in 175 minutes alongside LaVine and Gafford. Finally, he has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.1 percent usage rate and 12.2 percent rebounding rate in 276 minutes as the center alongside LaVine. The most important thing to note is the increase in usage rate and rebounding rate because it suggests that his ceiling increases in addition to the small bump in average production.
The rest of the Bulls don’t stand out as much as LaVine and Markkanen. Coby White, Otto Porter and Thaddeus Young all offer some upside at their respective salaries, but they are appropriately priced for their expected roles in this game. All three players are more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings if you are looking for the best place to roster them.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,600), Lauri Markkanen ($6,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,000), Lauri Markkanen ($6,500)
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans (-3): 223.5
San Antonio Spurs
We don’t have an injury report yet for the Spurs, but I am assuming everyone who was available against the Wizards last night is available again tonight against the Pelicans.
Dejounte Murray stands out as the most favorably priced San Antonio option on DraftKings. He is a viable option on FanDuel as well, but he is priced much closer to DeMar DeRozan. Murray has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, the second most on the team, with a 21.9 percent usage rate, 25.8 percent assist rate and 12.2 percent rebounding rate. The point guard actually has the highest rebounding rate on the team outside of back-up centers Jakob Poeltl and Trey Lyles, and his well-rounded game allows him to contribute DFS points in a variety of ways. He has averaged 30.5 minutes per game in 16 games played without Derrick White this season. That includes the game where he left with an injury after one minute of action, so his actual average is closer to 32.5 minutes per game without White.
DeRozan has been the best per-minute fantasy producer on the team and he also leads the team with 33.8 minutes per game. His salary has fallen a bit from its peak, making him a strong mid-range option tonight against the Pelicans — especially on DraftKings where we can roster him at the forward positions. In addition to leading the Spurs with 1.17 DraftKings points per minute, DeRozan is the team-leader in usage rate at 24.2 percent and assist rate at 29.8 percent. The Pelicans rank in the bottom third of the league in defensive efficiency this season, but they also have dealt with injuries and are fully healthy at the moment. They have several strong individual defenders on their team, and they also rank in the bottom third of the league in pace, so I view this as a mediocre matchup but still think that there is upside for DeRozan at his salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Dejounte Murray ($6,500), DeMar DeRozan ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Dejounte Murray ($7,600), DeMar DeRozan ($7,900)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans should be at full strength tonight in a pace-up spot against a Spurs team that ranks eighth in pace but also ninth in defensive efficiency this season.
As usual, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are the focal points for the Pelicans tonight. Ingram leads the team with 35 minutes per game this season and Williamson is second with 33.1 minutes per game. Ingram is first with a 29.2 percent usage rate and Williamson is second with a 28.7 percent usage rate. Both players have averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season.
After Ingram and Williamson, it is just secondary tournament options. Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe are talented NBA players who can contribute in every category, but their production is limited on this team because they are lower-usage options than Ingram and Williamson, lower assist options than Ingram and lower rebound options than Adams or Williamson. Steven Adams is tough to prioritize because there are so many high-upside centers that it is difficult to allocate a roster spot to Adams, knowing that he isn’t a high-usage play and that you’re essentially hoping for a 13-point, 12-rebound double-double or something along those lines. Adams is more favorably priced on FanDuel, but the opportunity cost is also even higher since we can only roster one center.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,000), Zion Williamson ($7,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($7,700), Zion Williamson ($8,000), Steven Adams ($5,000)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-8.5): 225.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is expected to be without D’Angelo Russell again tonight. Ricky Rubio started in his place last game and played 28.5 minutes while Jordan McLaughlin picked up 19.7 minutes off the bench and Jarrett Culver played 24.8 minutes off the bench. Anthony Edwards only played 20.3 minutes, but Russell’s absence does increase his ceiling as he could be in the closing lineup tonight in place of Culver if he plays well. Karl-Anthony Towns and Juancho Hernangomez are also out, which means that Naz Reid and Jarred Vanderbilt should both start.
Ricky Rubio was “limited” to 24 to 28 minutes entering Saturday’s game and ended up playing between 28 and 29 minutes, which should give us confidence coming into tonight’s game. I expect that we see at least another 28 minutes assuming that everything goes according to plan. Rubio has been terrible this season, averaging only 0.87 DraftKings points per minute, but we only have to look back to last season with the Suns to see how productive Rubio can be as he averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. Of Rubio’s 312 minutes this season, 150 have come without Russell or Towns on the floor and he has seen a bump in production with 0.98 DraftKings points per minute. He is priced to his floor tonight in a fast-paced matchup against Golden State.
Nobody else stands out as a top option to me from the Timberwolves, but there is tournament upside in a number of places thanks to a matchup against a Golden State team that has played at the third-fastest pace in the league (and Minnesota has played at the sixth-fastest pace). Malik Beasley has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.2 percent usage percentage in 147 minutes without Russell or Towns on the floor this season while Vanderbilt has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. Vanderbilt only played about 21 minutes last game despite playing well, so there is a low floor for his playing time. Still, if he gets 26-plus minutes as he has in a couple of his starts, he should do well for his salary. Jordan McLaughlin has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season without Russell or Towns on the floor and is likely to play about 20 minutes at a near minimum salary if we need a deep punt in tournaments while Anthony Edwards has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.2 percent usage percentage sans Russell or Towns and could see 24 to 26 minutes if he plays well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ricky Rubio ($5,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ricky Rubio ($5,300)
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors’ rotation is fully intact and they get a great matchup against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are sixth in pace and 26th in defensive rating this season.
Stephen Curry should be able to light up this Minnesota defense and he stands out as a top play on the slate in any format. He has averaged 33.9 minutes per game and 1.39 DraftKings points per minute this season. He leads the team with a 31 percent usage percentage and is second to Draymond Green with a 31.8 percent assist percentage.
Draymond Green looks underpriced for this matchup. He hasn’t been as productive this season as in the past, averaging 0.83 DraftKings points per minute with only a 12.2 percent usage percentage and 8.9 percent rebounding percentage, but he does lead the team in assist percentage and it is likely that his per-minute production increases as the season goes on. Green can be expected to play 30 to 32 minutes if the game is close and he should benefit from the pace of the matchup and inefficiency of Minnesota’s defense.
Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre aren’t as favorably priced as Green, but they also offer more fantasy production. Wiggins has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season and is second on the team with 32.1 minutes per game. Oubre’s 43.6 percent true shooting percentage this season is about 10 points below his 53.5 percent career average and his 20.2 percent three-point percentage is about 12 points lower than his 32.1 percent career average. Despite his poor shooting to open the season, Oubre has still produced 0.86 DraftKings points per minute thanks to his productivity in other stat categories. His salary is lower than it should be given his opportunities on this team and I like him in tournaments assuming he has low ownership.
James Wiseman played 24.8 minutes in a blowout loss to the Jazz on Saturday, giving him at least 24 minutes played in five of his last six games. The only game that he failed to reach 24 minutes was against the Lakers when he picked up his fifth foul early in the third quarter. Wiseman has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season and offers some value at his salary. The problem with Wiseman is the same as it has been with several other strong point-per-dollar centers tonight- we will probably need more than 30 to 35 points here because of the opportunity cost at the position.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,200), Draymond Green ($5,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,600), Draymond Green ($4,900), Kelly Oubre ($5,200), James Wiseman ($4,900)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland TrailBlazers (-4.5): 225.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
Update: Horford is still out tonight.
Al Horford missed last night’s game and I am considering him out until I hear otherwise. George Hill is out tonight and I expect Hamidou Diallo and Lu Dort to be the primary beneficiaries.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets his first favorable matchup in a while tonight against Portland. The boom-or-bust nature of Gilgeous-Alexander’s game this season helps to keep his salary low enough that he becomes a very appealing target in good matchups. That’s the case tonight as he faces a Portland team that is 28th in defensive rating and 14th in pace this season. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season with a team-leading 26.3 percent usage percentage and 31.0 percent assist percentage. He also leads the team with 33.9 minutes per game.
There is a ton of upside elsewhere on the Thunder as well, though they are less predictable than Gilgeous-Alexander. All of Darius Bazley, Isaiah Roby (assuming Horford is out), Lu Dort and Hamidou Diallo are priced too low for their ceilings but basically in line with their average production. None of these players have averaged more than 30 minutes per game this season, with Bazley leading the way at 29.4 minutes per game, and only Diallo has a usage percentage above 20 percent.
Roby has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 26.3 minutes per game in six starts in place of Horford this season. He also still has power forward eligibility, which makes him more valuable.
Bazley is second to Roby with a 13 percent rebounding percentage this season and we could see 30-plus minutes tonight if the game is competitive. He isn’t a high-usage player, but he gets enough done offensively that he gives us double-double upside at an inexpensive price point. If Draymond Green is getting more ownership at the same salary, I like pivoting to Bazley in tournaments because I think they have a similar range of outcomes and, if anything, Bazley has the higher ceiling.
George Hill has only missed one game this season and Justin Jackson started in his place. Hamidou Diallo played 22 minutes off the bench and Lu Dort played 29 minutes as a starter. I’m hoping that Oklahoma City starts Diallo in place of Hill tonight, as he has been productive this season and has been Hill’s primary back-up. Even if he doesn’t start, I like using him as a value option at a very inexpensive salary. Dort played 31 minutes yesterday and should be in line for at least another 30 minutes tonight in a favorable matchup. He has taken a step forward offensively this season after making a name for himself as a defender in his rookie season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100), Darius Bazley ($5,300), Isaiah Roby ($4,600), Hamidou Diallo ($3,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200), Darius Bazley ($4,700), Isaiah Roby ($4,500), Lu Dort ($4,900)
Portland TrailBlazers
We don’t have an injury report for the Blazers yet, but we know that C.J. McCollum, Robert Covington and Jusuf Nurkic are all out tonight.
Damian Lillard has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.4 percent usage percentage and 38.2 percent assist percentage in 39.2 minutes per game in six games without McCollum or Nurkic since last season. He gets a favorable matchup against Oklahoma City tonight and looks like one of the top plays on the slate.
Enes Kanter has averaged 26.4 minutes per game and 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in his three starts without Nurkic this season. Most of that production came in his massive fantasy game against Atlanta on January 16th and he has been disappointing in his last two games. Those games were against the Knicks and Spurs, two teams much better defensively than the Thunder. If I’m going to a mid-range center on a slate like this, I want it to be someone like Kanter that still has the ability to go get 40 to 50 fantasy points.
Carmelo Anthony is likely to see more playing time with Covington sidelined and he has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season. He played 25.8 minutes against the Knicks yesterday and there is a good chance we get 26 to 28 minutes from him tonight, if not more. Derrick Jones, Jr., Gary Trent, Jr. and Rodney Hood’s minutes could increase without Covington as well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($10,300), Carmelo Anthony ($4,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,700), Carmelo Anthony ($4,100)
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