NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Fantasy Lineups & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 20

Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers (+10): 224

Brooklyn Nets

Kyrie Irving is expected back for the Nets tonight, meaning this will be the first time that we see all three of the Nets’ stars on the floor together. His return makes it difficult to trust James Harden or Kevin Durant at their current salaries. They still have high ceilings, but we don’t know how production will look with all three players active and the most likely scenario is that they are all overpriced for their median output but that we will still see big games from them based on whoever is playing the best that night. This keeps them all in play in tournaments if they are low-owned.

DeAndre Jordan’s salary increased after playing nearly 38 minutes last game. This is another matchup where I think that he is likely to be on the floor to close the game. My expectation for Brooklyn’s closing lineup is that Jeff Green will close against smaller teams and Jordan will close against more traditional centers. The Nets face a Cavaliers team that has Andre Drummond, JaVale McGee and Jarrett Allen at center so I don’t see any reason Jordan wouldn’t be on the floor at the end of the game. He’s never been a high-usage player, so I don’t think he should be hurt much by Irving’s return to the floor. Jordan has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season and I expect that we get 32-plus minutes out of him tonight.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeAndre Jordan ($5,500)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeAndre Jordan ($4,800)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Darius Garland and Collin Sexton are both listed as questionable tonight, so we will have to wait for more information before we can really know what to do with this team. Even if Garland and Sexton are out, the Cavaliers shouldn’t be as short-handed as they were in their last game now that the Harden trade is official and Taurean Prince and Allen can join the team.

Drummond is priced up based on his recent performances. If we think that he is going to continue playing 34-plus minutes in competitive games, then there is still value because he has averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute this season. My concern is that, at this price point, it isn’t going to take much of a reduction in playing time for him to be overpriced. Prior to the Cavaliers losing a large portion of their rotation to injury, Drummond was having trouble getting more than 31 or 32 minutes because JaVale McGee was stealing minutes as his back-up. Now, with the addition of Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers have three rotation-worthy centers and one of them (Allen) is young enough that the Cavs have an incentive to give him consistent playing time. In a best-case scenario for fantasy purposes, McGee will be removed from the rotation. I’m not sure that happens but, even if it does, it’s hard to think that Allen is consistently limited to 12 to 14 minutes. If this turns into a split where Drummond averages 30 to 32 minutes and Allen gets 16 to 18 minutes as his back-up, it will still be tough to pay this salary for Drummond. My approach in uncertain situations like this is typically to stay away in cash games and then do the opposite of the field in GPPs.

I don’t have much interest in the Cavs as a whole because their players have been priced up due to playing so many games short-handed. If Sexton and Garland are out, I still don’t feel confident that we get enough minutes from players like Damyean Dotson or Cedi Osman for them to be top options on a 10-game slate.

If Garland or Sexton play, I will have some GPP interest in them as long as we don’t get word that they will be limited. Garland has averaged 35.8 minutes per game and 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season while Sexton has averaged 37.3 minutes per game and 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. We may see those minute totals decrease going forward, but both players would have tournament upside if they get around 34 minutes tonight — particularly Sexton, who has a 26 percent usage rate and is capable of scoring in bunches. Overall, there is nothing here that looks like a priority to me, however.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None

Latest NBA DFS Content

Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers (+1.5): 218

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks remain short-handed tonight as they will be without Josh Richardson, Dwight Powell, Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber. Tim Hardaway Jr. is available.

Luka Doncic has a tough matchup against the Pacers, but it could be a little bit easier if Myles Turner (questionable) misses this game as it would remove the league’s top shot blocker from the paint. Doncic has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute in 34.5 minutes per game overall this season. Since Kristaps Porzingis returned to action, Doncic has averaged 1.85 DraftKings points per minute in 35.7 minutes per game over four games. I don’t expect Doncic’s 1.85 points per minute average to continue long-term, but he should continue to produce at a higher than normal rate and play more minutes while the Mavs are missing several rotation players. He also averaged more fantasy points per minute in game with Porzingis than without him last season, so I think Porzingis’s return should continue to help his production.

Porzingis played 33.4 and 31.9 minutes in a back-to-back set, so it appears that he is close to full strength and the Mavericks aren’t limiting him. He left a few minutes on the table in both of those games due to blowout as well, so I think we can feel confident in his playing time at this point. He has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute with a 28 percent usage rate since returning this season and has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate since the start of last season. Before the Mavericks pulled their starters late in the fourth quarter of their last game, Porzingis was closing at center against Chris Boucher. This was also the case in the previous game against Wendell Carter. I expect that we see the same thing tonight, especially if Turner is out and the Pacers don’t have two seven-footers on the floor in their closing lineup. Porzingis has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season in 647 minutes without a center on the floor alongside him. I think we will get some of these minutes tonight and he should benefit.

Beyond Doncic and Porzingis, nothing stands out from Dallas in the context of a 10-game slate. Jalen Brunson returned and joined the starting lineup on Monday. We probably get 28-plus minutes from Brunson and 26-plus minutes from Trey Burke tonight, but neither stands out as a great value. Brunson is the more appealing at only $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel, but he’s only averaged 0.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 13.8 percent usage rate and 11.1 percent assist rate in 91 minutes alongside Doncic and Porzingis since the start of last season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,700), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,500), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500)

Indiana Pacers

We are waiting on two big pieces of news from Indiana. Turner is questionable with a “slight” hand fracture and Jeremy Lamb is questionable as well. This would be Lamb’s first game of the season if he is able to go, so I assume that he would be limited. JaKarr Sampson is also questionable while T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert are out. Doug McDermott started with Turner out last game and I expect that would be the case again tonight.

Domantas Sabonis has been excellent this season and that should continue tonight against the Mavericks. He has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season while leading the team in usage rate and rebounding rate and ranking behind only Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. McConnell in assist rate. The trade of Victor Oladipo opens up more usage for Sabonis as well since he isn’t currently being replaced by a high-usage player. Sabonis has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in 105 minutes alongside Brogdon without either of Oladipo or Warren on the floor since last season. Of those 105 minutes, 72 have come without Turner on the floor and Sabonis has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute. In addition to leading the team in fantasy points per minute, Sabonis also leads the team with 37.5 minutes per game.

Brogdon is second on the Pacers with 36.6 minutes per game. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.1 percent usage rate this season. In nine games since Warren was injured, Brogdon has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 37.9 minutes per game. He remains a strong option at his price point.

The secondary pieces on the Pacers are all priced up enough that I don’t have much interest now, especially if Lamb returns and takes away some of the available minutes. If I have to look to any of the pieces outside of Brogdon and Sabonis, I would lean toward McDermott. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season and played 32.4 minutes in Indiana’s last game despite losing about seven minutes to the blowout. If Lamb returns, I think McDermott’s playing time takes a hit but, if Lamb remains out, we could see a lot of minutes for McDermott again. Two things to keep in mind about his last game are that McDermott was shooting extremely well and Sampson was also out. If McDermott isn’t shooting well, I expect that he plays fewer minutes and that could also be the case if Sampson is available. Also, McDermott loses all value if Turner plays since he would most likely return to the bench and lose playing time.

The final thing to pay attention to as far as the lineup goes is whether or not Sabonis actually starts at center. The Mavericks have a big frontcourt with Porzingis starting alongside Cauley-Stein, so it’s possible that we see Goga Bitadze draw the start in place of Turner if he is out. In that case, Bitadze would be a good value option as he is close to minimum salary and has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute since last season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,800), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,600), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,800)

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5): 221.5

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are getting healthier, but will still be without Jayson Tatum tonight. Carsen Edwards and Romeo Langford are out as well.

Jaylen Brown has been relatively disappointing in his two games without Tatum, but he has also been limited to 25 and 33 minutes by blowouts. We should see at least 35 or 36 minutes from Brown tonight as long as this game is competitive. He has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.1 percent usage rate and 31.3 percent assist rate in 169 minutes without Tatum on the floor this season compared to 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.9 percent usage rate and 14.2 percent assist rate in 233 minutes alongside Tatum. While the per-minute production is almost identical, it’s important to pay attention to the rates because they show us that Brown is getting more opportunities and therefore has a higher ceiling even if his average production remains similar.

Marcus Smart is the only player other than Brown who is likely to play more than 30 minutes tonight as the Celtics will most likely use a deep rotation that limits the playing time of the rest of their players. He has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.4 percent usage rate in 136 minutes without Tatum on the floor this season and 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with an 18.1 percent usage rate overall. He isn’t a priority for me, but he is worth a look in tournaments if you are playing a lot of lineups just because he is a mid-range option that is likely to play at least 33 or 34 minutes if the game is competitive.

Tristan Thompson is the other Boston player that I am somewhat interested in, but it will be difficult to prioritize him on a slate this big since there is always a high opportunity cost at the center position. Thompson has remained in the Celtics’ starting lineup while Daniel Theis has moved to the bench. He played 26.2 minutes against the Knicks last game and probably lost a few minutes to the blowout. He played 20.5 minutes against Orlando in the game before that, again losing time to a blowout. Based on his first half rotations in those games, he has been on pace for 28 to 29 minutes if he got matching run in the second half. He has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, and projects as a decent point-per-dollar value if we assume that he gets around 28 minutes tonight. He is more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings because he somehow has power forward eligibility.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($8,700)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($8,300), Tristan Thompson ($4,400)

Philadelphia 76ers

Vincent Poirier, Mike Scott and Seth Curry are out tonight. The rest of the Sixers are expected to be available.

Joel Embiid should be back for the Sixers and he is reasonably priced at $9,600 on DraftKings and $9,800 on FanDuel. Embiid has averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute in 31.3 minutes per game this season. Typically, in competitive games, we can count on at least 33 or 34 minutes for Embiid. I think that he offers similar production to Andre Drummond at this price point, but without the uncertainty of how much playing time we will get since we don’t have a new center rotation in Philadelphia.

Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey should continue to see additional playing time in Curry’s absence. Maxey has been starting in place of Curry. He played 25.7 minutes two games ago against Miami and 24.6 minutes last game against Memphis while Milton played 27.4 minutes off the bench against the Heat and 32.5 minutes against Memphis. One of these two should be in the closing lineup alongside the four normal starters. My guess based on rotations in the last couple of games is that it will be Milton, but I think it will partly be based on how each guy is playing. Milton has been the better fantasy producer this season with 1.03 DraftKings points per minute compared to 0.91 DraftKings points per minute for Maxey and he should also benefit from getting more time with the second unit.

Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are first and second on the Sixers with 33 and 32.5 minutes per game this season. We can expect them to play a few additional minutes as long as the game is competitive, but it’s still difficult to prioritize either player on this slate since Embiid is back and that will take fantasy production away from both players.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,800)

Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks (-4.5): 220.5

Detroit Pistons

Killian Hayes is out and Frank Jackson is probable. The Pistons are healthy other than Hayes.

Detroit is a tough team to trust since they typically run a deep rotation and they have a lot of interchangeable pieces that keep their rotation from being predictable. The lack of consistency leads to inexpensive price tags, however, so there is upside to be found here.

Jerami Grant leads the team with a 27 percent usage rate this season and he has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 36.3 minutes per game. Grant’s true shooting rate this season is 59.1 percent, which is the same as it was last season. His usage rate is between eight and nine points higher this season, however, so his ability to maintain efficiency is impressive and makes me think he is probably a better scorer than I initially gave him credit for at the beginning of the season. It feels weird to say, but I think there is upside on Grant even at his elevated salary.

Derrick Rose is a very interesting tournament piece tonight at only $5,400 on DraftKings. He is more expensive on FanDuel, so he is relatively less appealing there. Rose has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a 30.5 percent usage rate. The only issue with Rose is his inconsistent, and limited, playing time. He has only averaged 23.7 minutes per game this season, but he played 26.6 minutes in a competitive game against the Heat his last time out. With Hayes sidelined, we have typically seen Rose and Delon Wright split the point guard minutes. Rose is clearly the better scorer and I think that more often than not he will get the closing minutes over Wright and win the timeshare 25 or 26 minutes to 23 or 22 minutes.

Mason Plumlee played 35.5 minutes in his last game and 27.9 minutes in the game before that. Obviously, there is a wide range of minutes that Plumlee can play, but it’s good to see him taking back the minutes that he had lost to the three-man center rotation that Detroit was temporarily using. Jahlil Okafor played 9.1 minutes against the Bucks on January 13^th and hasn’t played since. Hopefully that continues tonight and, if it does, Plumlee looks like a strong value as he has averaged one DraftKings point per minute this season while contributing points, rebounds and assists.

If you told me coming into the season that Blake Griffin would be in the low $6,000 price range and averaging 32.4 minutes per game, I would have assumed he was a clear top play on the slate. That isn’t really the case, however, as he has taken a clear backseat to Grant as a scoring option. Griffin only has a 19.8 percent usage rate and has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season. He still has big games from time to time, but we can’t rely on him to exceed his current price tag. Wayne Ellington had a big game against Miami his last time out and played 27.5 minutes. We can expect at least 25 or 26 minutes from Ellington tonight, but he will need to be efficient in order to give us a useful fantasy score. He has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.8 percent usage rate this season. Josh Jackson carries some appeal in large field tournaments as he has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is most likely only going to play about 20 minutes but, if he somehow finds his way onto the floor for longer, he should easily exceed his salary at low ownership.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($7,700), Derrick Rose ($5,400), Mason Plumlee ($5,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant ($8,400), Mason Plumlee ($5,500)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are without Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn and Danilo Gallinari. Cam Reddish is questionable while De’Andre Hunter and Trae Young are probable. If Reddish misses the game, we should get another start from Kevin Huerter (who is somehow more expensive than Young on DraftKings but reasonably priced on FanDuel).

Young and Clint Capela remains the starting point for the Hawks as both parts of the pick-and-roll duo offers a high ceiling against Detroit. Young leads the team with 32.7 minutes per game this season but we should see 34-plus as long as it is competitive. He hasn’t been as productive as last season with only 1.29 DraftKings points per minute compared to 1.43 points per minute last season, but the upside is still there with a 32.1 percent usage rate and 41.9 percent assist rate.

Capela has only averaged 28.6 minutes per game, but that includes the games when he first returned from injury and was limited. He played 39.4 minutes against the Timberwolves on Monday. In addition to the 39 minutes on Monday, Capela played 36.5 minutes against Portland on Saturday and had been on pace for 34 or 35 minutes in each of his previous two games had they not ended up being blowouts. I think we can project Capela to play at least 33 or 34 minutes tonight with room for more. He has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season and looks like one of the top plays of the slate in any format.

John Collins is the third option from the Hawks as he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season in 28.7 minutes per game. The problem for Collins is that, as Capela plays more minutes, he gets fewer minutes at center. The center minutes are Collins’ most productive minutes, so the increase in playing time for Capela has a negative impact on Collins’ production. Still, he is relatively inexpensive for his upside and he can be rostered at power forward which adds some additional value.

Huerter is absurdly expensive on DraftKings but he is a reasonable value on FanDuel if he starts in place of Reddish. Huerter has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute this season and is likely to play 34-plus minutes if Reddish is out. Hunter should play big minutes as well if Reddish is out and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s too close to Collins in price for me to prioritize him on DraftKings, but he has some value as a $5,600 small forward on FanDuel.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,300), Clint Capela ($7,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,000), Clint Capela ($8,000), John Collins ($6,600)

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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-4.5): 222

Miami Heat

Miami will once again be without Jimmy Butler, Avery Bradley and Meyers Leonard. Tyler Herro is questionable. Gabe Vincent and Goran Dragic are probable. Herro missed Monday’s game against Detroit and Dragic started in his place.

Bam Adebayo has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute in 185 minutes without Butler on the floor this season, posting a 28 percent usage rate, 16.8 percent rebounding rate and 26.8 percent assist rate. Since the start of last season, Adebayo has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.4 percent usage rate, 15.5 percent rebounding rate and 31.5 percent assist rate in 18 games played without Butler. He is expensive, but he should be the focal point of the offense with Butler out.

Herro is expensive because of his time playing when the Heat were extremely short-handed so, if he plays, I won’t be particularly interested in rostering him. If he sits, however, it opens the door for Dragic to be a strong value. He is inexpensive on DraftKings and FanDuel and has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 28.4 minutes per game in 16 games without Butler since last season. He played 33.1 minutes against Detroit on Monday and I would expect similar playing time if Herro is out again tonight. Kendrick Nunn played 27.4 minutes off the bench on Saturday and 34 minutes off the bench on Monday without Herro, so he would be a viable, albeit risky, value option if Herro is out as well.

KZ Okpala started the last couple of games with Butler out, but he only played 3.6 minutes on Monday and Maurice Harkless replaced him in the lineup to start the second half. Harkless then played about 17 minutes in the half and finished the game with 29.9 minutes played. He has only averaged 0.34 DraftKings points per minute in 79 minutes this season and he averaged 0.65 DraftKings points per minute in 1,140 minutes with the Clippers last season so he isn’t an exciting option, but he could play 26 to 30 minutes at minimum salary if he starts and Herro is out.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,600), Goran Dragic ($5,700 if Herro is out), Kendrick Nunn ($4,000 if Herro is out)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($8,800), Goran Dragic ($5,200 if Herro is out)

Toronto Raptors

Terrence Davis is probable and Patrick McCaw is out tonight, so the Raptors are essentially at full strength.

Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry are nearly impossible to distinguish from each other as they offer almost the same fantasy points per minute and minutes per game. They are also all priced within $500 of each other on both DraftKings and FanDuel. All three players averaged 1.08 to 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season and 35.2 to 35.8 minutes per game. I’m not being lazy when I say that, for all intents and purposes, it doesn’t matter which one of these guys you roster. Just use whoever fits into your lineup. In tournaments, if you can afford any of them without sacrificing elsewhere, just roster the lowest owned because the range of outcomes is as close to identical as you’re going to find from three teammates.

Boucher remains underpriced on DraftKings at $7,300 with power forward eligibility. He didn’t start the second half last game against Dallas, but he still played 27.7 minutes and left about two minutes on the table due to blowout. Boucher has averaged 1.4 DraftKings points per minute this season and has averaged 28.9 minutes per game over his last six games. The reason that I use his last six games is because Toronto has played against teams with small frontcourts in their last six games and that is typically where Boucher is going to shine. He can lose playing time against big, traditional, high-usage centers but we have fewer and fewer of those in the league. Bam Adebayo is a high-usage center, but he’s undersized and I think Toronto will still use Boucher when he is on the floor.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,500), Kyle Lowry ($7,600), Pascal Siakam ($8,000), Chris Boucher ($7,300)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,600), Kyle Lowry ($7,500), Pascal Siakam ($8,000)

Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves (+4): 219

Orlando Magic

Evan Fournier is available for the Magic tonight so either James Ennis or Dwayne Bacon should be heading back to the bench.

Nikola Vucevic looks like a fantastic option against the banged-up Minnesota frontcourt. Vucevic feels like he goes overlooked amongst the other top-end center options like Embiid and Drummond sometimes, but he has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute this season and he leads the team in usage rate and rebounding rate. He also has the highest assist rate other than the point guards. Fournier’s return to the lineup could take a little bit of production away since he is a higher usage player than Ennis or Bacon and he handles the ball more as well, but this is still Vucevic’s offense.

Aaron Gordon has been the second-best per-minute fantasy producer on this team, behind Vucevic, with 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 24.5 percent usage rate this season and he should benefit from a great matchup against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is 28^th in defensive rating this season and sixth in pace. Gordon’s playing time is no longer restricted and we should get 34 to 36 minutes from him as long as this game is competitive.

Cole Anthony and Fournier are worthy of consideration as well, if Fournier isn’t limited. Anthony has averaged 28 minutes per game with a 26.2 percent usage rate and 18.5 percent assist rate in six starts since Fultz’s injury. Anthony has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Fournier has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in 127 minutes this season and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in 2,373 minutes since the start of last season. He would grade out as a strong value if he was likely to play 34-plus minutes but, assuming he plays 29 or 30 minutes, he looks like more of a secondary option.

Fournier’s return hurts the value of Terrence Ross because it adds volatility to his playing time. I still think it is likely that Ross is in the closing lineup, but Orlando has more options depending on how the game is going. Ross’s salary has also increased so, while he is fully capable of lighting up this Minnesota defense, he falls behind Vucevic, Gordon, Anthony and Fournier for me.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,600), Aaron Gordon ($7,400)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,900), Aaron Gordon ($7,000), Cole Anthony ($5,000)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns, Ricky Rubio and Juancho Hernangomez are out again tonight. Josh Okogie is probable.

We saw this version of the Timberwolves play on Monday against the Hawks and they started Jarred Vanderbilt and Naz Reid in place of Hernangomez and Towns. Vanderbilt played 29.2 minutes and Reid played 27.8 minutes. I expect that we see similar opportunities for these two tonight with Minnesota’s frontcourt short-handed. There is a chance that Reid loses playing time because he gets abused by Vucevic, but he still has upside at this price point as he has averaged one DraftKings point per minute this season. Vanderbilt has clearly impressed Ryan Saunders and the Minnesota coaching staff recently as they have been finding ways to use him in the rotation whenever they can. We saw him getting minutes over Reid at center before Towns returned and then getting minutes behind Hernangomez when Towns was in the lineup. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 163 minutes this season, thanks mostly to peripherals as he has a 14.3 percent assist rate and 17.5 percent rebounding rate. I think that it is likely his per-minute production decreases playing alongside the starters, but he also has the opportunity to approach 30 minutes of action tonight, so he still looks like a good value.

D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley will need to be the primary scorers without Towns on the floor. Russell has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate in eight games without Towns this season while Beasley has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.3 percent usage rate over those games. Both players are priced up, however, so they are only secondary options for me tonight in a tough matchup.

Ricky Rubio’s absence potentially opens the door for one of Anthony Edwards or Jarrett Culver, but the Timberwolves elected to give Jordan McLaughlin 18 minutes last game so it’s tough to trust either one. Edwards still managed to play about 30 minutes, however, so he is worth consideration at only $4,500 on DraftKings with small forward eligibility.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($8,400), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,800)

Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets (+5.5): 219.5

Phoenix Suns

Dario Saric, Damian Jones and Jalen Smith are out. Cameron Payne is questionable. While none of these injuries sound important, they actually do have fantasy implications. Saric has been Deandre Ayton’s back-up this season and, with him out last game, Ayton played 34.7 minutes compared to his season average of 32.5 minutes. Similarly, Payne is Chris Paul’s back-up. If he is out, we should continue to see Devin Booker and Paul’s minutes staggered, increasing the value of each player. If Payne is back, more of their minutes will be played alongside each other and their average production will suffer.

Ayton played almost 35 minutes last game, as mentioned above. With Saric out again tonight, I am optimistic that we see Ayton play mid-30s in minutes again. He is inexpensive because his minutes and production have been down this season. Still, he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and leads the team with a 21.6 percent rebounding rate so there is upside at his price point, especially if we can expect him to play a couple of minutes more than normal.

Paul and Booker are high-upside tournament options that probably won’t find their way into an optimal build. Paul doesn’t play quite enough minutes to be a priority at his price point, despite averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, while Booker has only averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute thanks to a decrease in assist rate playing alongside Paul. As mentioned before, they both become more appealing options if Payne is out because they will play a smaller rate of their minutes alongside each other.

Cameron Johnson only played 18 minutes last game against the Wizards, but he has averaged 24.3 minutes per game this season. Johnson is a fixture in the Suns’ rotation and a young player, so I’m not overly concerned about him not getting playing time. Until we see more, I am going to assume that the game against Washington was a blip on the radar. He has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and looks like a strong value tonight in a favorable matchup against the Rockets.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeAndre Ayton ($7,000), Cameron Johnson ($3,900)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeAndre Ayton ($6,700), Chris Paul ($6,900)

Houston Rockets

John Wall is still out for Houston, as are Danuel House, Dante Exum and Chris Clemons. Sterling Brown is available after missing Houston’s last game. I expect that Brown will re-join the starting lineup with David Nwaba returning to the bench. I don’t expect either player to be particularly useful in DFS tonight.

Oladipo looks like a strong play once again tonight. He played 32.1 minutes in his Houston debut and I think we could see his playing time trend upwards because he was averaging over 34 minutes per game in Indiana and the Rockets certainly don’t have anyone comparable that can play in place of him. Oladipo had a 40.4 percent usage rate in his first game, shooting 23 times over his 32 minutes of play. He also led the team with 13 potential assists (and nine actual assists). He averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with the Pacers this season and I think he should produce at a higher rate with the Rockets for as long as Wall is out and Oladipo is the primary facilitator.

Christian Wood is still expensive, particularly on FanDuel where he is $9,800. He still has upside at this price since he has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 27.7 percent usage rate. I don’t think that Oladipo’s addition should hurt him, for now, since a lot of his minutes this season came with Wall and/or Harden on the floor and neither of them will be out there tonight. My biggest concern with Wood is his playing time. His salary rose during a stretch where the Rockets were extremely short-handed. Wood was playing north of 36 minutes in those games because either DeMarcus Cousins was out or Cousins was playing a few minutes alongside Wood to make up for the lack of bodies. Now that the Rockets are healthier, it is tough to project Wood for more than 30 to 32 minutes. DeMarcus Cousins is being used solely as his back-up and it’s difficult to think that Cousins is going to be forced into 10 to 12 minutes per game. As long as Cousins is getting 14 to 16 minutes, Wood can’t get more than 32 to 34 and Cousins could certainly see more than 16 minutes in some games.

Eric Gordon played 33.9 minutes against Chicago last game and he was on the floor for most of the minutes that Oladipo wasn’t. The return of Brown gives the Rockets another capable ball-handler, but I still expect Gordon to run the second unit. Gordon averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute without Harden and with either Westbrook or Paul active the last two seasons and I think that we should expect similar per-minute production under tonight’s circumstances.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Victor Oladipo ($7,800)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Victor Oladipo ($7,900)

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (-1): 228

San Antonio Spurs

There are no notable injuries for the Spurs, other than Derrick White still being out, so we should see their normal rotation tonight in a favorable matchup against the Warriors.

LaMarcus Aldridge is somewhat difficult to trust since his playing time has been relatively inconsistent and his production has been down this season, but he is at one of the lowest price points that we will ever get him at. He only played 24.2 minutes last game against Portland, but I am mostly attributing that to a strong run from the bench that took control of the game early in the fourth quarter. Rudy Gay and Jakob Poeltl both played well and played the entire fourth until the end of the bench came in for garbage time. In the game before that, Aldridge only played 17.4 minutes against Houston. There were weird circumstances in that game too as we got a hockey line change from Pop in the first quarter and then extended run from Poeltl in the second half. The point here is that there is risk since Aldridge’s minutes have been more volatile than usual, but he has immense upside. Prior to the last two games, he had played at least 30 minutes in five straight games and he has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan have been San Antonio’s best per-minute producers this season with 1.10 and 1.20 DraftKings points per minute. DeRozan leads the team with a 24 percent usage rate and 30.5 percent assist rate while Murray has a 22 percent usage rate and 24.6 percent assist rate. Murray has averaged 32.9 minutes per game in 13 games without White this season and DeRozan has averaged 34.5 minutes per game overall.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,100), Dejounte Murray ($7,400)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($8,000), LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,000)

Golden State Warriors

Andrew Wiggins is questionable. I am assuming for now that he will play but, if he doesn’t, it should benefit Kelly Oubre and, probably, Kent Bazemore –– though the primary beneficiary in terms of playing time could very easily depend on who happens to play well when they’re on the floor.

Stephen Curry has averaged 34.5 minutes per game this season and 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the team with a 31.1 percent usage rate and is second to Draymond Green with a 32.0 percent assist rate. There are plenty of players to like at the top of the pricing spectrum tonight, but Curry is certainly on the list.

Wiggins and Oubre are viable tournament targets. Wiggins has averaged 32.7 minutes per game this season to Oubre’s 27.9 minutes per game, but Oubre’s limited playing time can partially be attributed to horrendous shooting to start the season. He has a 44.8 percent true shooting rate this season compared to 53.7 percent in his career. He has still averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute, however, so he should be able to drastically exceed his salary on nights where he happens to remember how to shoot.

Green can be expected to play around 30 minutes a night and has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with his team-leading assist rate. The problem with Green is that he has basically refused to shoot this season, posting just an 11.5 percent usage rate. He has never been a high-usage player, but we normally get more scoring from him than we’ve gotten so far this season.

James Wiseman was wildly disappointing as chalk the other night against the Lakers, but he was in massive foul trouble in that game. Prior to that game, he played a season-high in minutes in back-to-back games with 26 and 27 minutes. If he approaches 26 minutes again tonight, he should be a strong value as he has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,700), Kelly Oubre ($5,500), Draymond Green ($5,400), James Wiseman ($4,600)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,800), Kelly Oubre ($5,400), Draymond Green ($5,400), James Wiseman ($4,400)

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5): 230.5

Sacramento Kings

Marvin Bagley is probable and Hassan Whiteside is questionable tonight.

This game has a high total, but pricing on the Kings is very unappealing in a tough matchup against the Clippers. De’Aaron Fox has the highest ceiling as he can play 36-plus minutes if the game is competitive and he has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is a strong play on FanDuel at $7,800, but difficult to get to on DraftKings at $8,900 given the other options available in the same salary range.

Bagley looks like the best value on DraftKings, especially if Whiteside is out and we can get some back-up center minutes. We can’t count on more than 28 to 30 minutes from Bagley, but he has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Los Angeles Clippers

Lou Williams is questionable. Serge Ibaka isn’t on the injury report, so I assume he is playing tonight.

The Kings are one of the best matchups in DFS, but the Clippers are a tough team to prioritize when they are healthy. Kawhi Leonard has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season while Paul George has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. We can expect 34-plus minutes if the game is competitive and, if it isn’t competitive, there is a good chance that at least one of these two produced at a higher rate than normal since so much of the offense runs through them.

If Williams sits, it opens up more minutes for Patrick Beverley and Marcus Morris. Morris could also benefit because the Kings have a small frontcourt and the Clippers could choose to close with him over Ibaka or Zubac even if Williams plays. The problem is that his salary increased so there is less margin for error than when he was only $4,000.

The Kings have one of the weakest interior defenses in the league and Ibaka should be able to have success against them. The issue with Ibaka is that we can’t trust him to play more than 24 to 26 minutes since he has a competent back-up in Zubac and the Clippers could close with Morris in his place. I would rather roster Ibaka as a $5,500 power forward on FanDuel than a $5,900 center on DraftKings.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,400), Paul George ($9,100)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,100), Paul George ($8,500), Serge Ibaka ($5,500)

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Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].