The NBA DFS Deep Dive is the primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
Be sure to check out this morning’s Strategy Show featuring Josh Engleman and Rayen Patnaik
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 11
Note: With eight games on deck we’re going back to the positional breakdown for this week. If you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack at tmcb74.
Point Guard
The point guard spot has one properly priced superstar and one underpriced superstar, and after that it looks very much like a flat position where one may want to distribute some ownership shares or extract some value. DraftKings players pick up C.J. McCollum, Collin Sexton, Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Patty Mills, Immanuel Quickley and Jalen Brunson.
Luka Doncic ($11,000 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel) stands out as the highest-priced player at the position on both sites by a wide margin. With most of the competition trending downward in both site’s aggressive pricing models, Doncic remains a major spend-up spot. He averages 1.47 fantasy points per minute across all situations, and the Mavericks will be relatively healthy, with Willie Cauley-Stein returning; though Maxi Kleber is unlikely to play. Doncic makes for a solid investment, he sees 35.1% of the team’s usage and picks up 25.8% of the rebounds and 52.2% of their assists. He is a dominant force at the position and comes up as the most frequently optimal point guard on FanDuel, though he ranks among the masses on DraftKings.
Ja Morant ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has been priced down for most of the season, but he is yet to justify any significant increase. He averages just 1.09 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, which does make him an interesting option at the $7,000 price tag on both sites. His production remains around the same without De’Anthony Melton, who is expected to miss tonight’s game. Morant is at a good price and playing in the game with the night’s highest game total, this looks like a strong spot for upside.
Kyle Lowry ($7,300 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) is underpriced at just $6,300 on FanDuel but at an appropriate mark for this season’s 1.03 fantasy points per minute at his $7,300 price on DraftKings. Coming in just $300 more than Morant makes Lowry drop in the rankings significantly on DraftKings, while he remains one of the prime point guard options on the board in the boom/bust tool on the blue site. Lowry is expected to be available for this game, but he is coming back from a foot injury, which makes his minutes questionable. The spot against the Knicks is not great either, but the price is right on at least one site; if he goes Lowry makes sense on FanDuel.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is getting cheaper. Down to $8,900 on FanDuel but still at $9,500 on DraftKings, he is simply a blue-site bargain at these prices. He ranks a few slots down the optimal-lineup rate board for Awesemo, and has not been producing at the elite level he did during McCollum’s absence. Still, there is major upside in Lillard at these prices. Lillard still does average 29 real points per game across the season, using 35.9 minutes and 31.1% usage to get the job done. He adds a 48.6% assist share but just a 13% rebounding percentage, meaning the team needs to get things going scoring the ball for him to get to his ceiling score.
Derrick Rose ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) is projected for 27 minutes of action for the Knicks and is probably too cheap at just $5,000 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel. Rose has put up 1.04 fantasy points per minute this season, a year that has seen a sit out, a trade and a bout with COVID-19. Despite that, he has managed a 38% assist rate and uses 25.7% of the team’s usage to get his 13.2 real points per game. When he is on the court, there is no arguing with the production. Rose is cheap but the public is on him today.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is a value option at $4,000 on FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings. Smith has seen his minutes trending up in the Pistons’ lousy backcourt, averaging just under 20 per game over the team’s last three contests. He has put up 6 real points on just 14.4% usage, though he contributed 31% of the team’s assists in his time on the court. With Jerami Grant and Wayne Ellington out, there should be minutes and opportunity, though Smith is not the most reliable of producers he has put up 1.00 fantasy point per minute across all situations for the season.
Additional values include Malcolm Brogdon who is in a good spot in the highest projected game of the day against Memphis; Jrue Holiday who is in a Bucks lineup that has some unpredictability to it; Darius Garland who slots in as a mid-range value in the mid-$6,000 range; as well as value that could emerge around a number of injury situations.
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Shooting Guard
Shooting guard looks like a position with a lot to offer on both sites tonight, from up and down the salary spectrum. The lucky NBA DFS players with positional flexibility on DraftKings get to utilize Khris Middleton, Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell, Holiday and Rose, among others, at the position.
Paul George ($8,400 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) lands as both the highest priced and highest ranked (by optimal-lineup rate via the boom/bust tool) shooting guard option on the FanDuel slate. On DraftKings he is the top ranked option, but not quite the most expensive. George has put up 1.20 fantasy points per minute for the season but has been dealing with injury issues and has been in and out of the lineup. With Kawhi Leonard, Patrick Beverley, Rajon Rondo and Serge Ibaka all still out, it would be helpful for the Clippers to have George available on Sunday. With those teammates out, George has put up 1.46 fantasy points per minute this season, across a 103 minute sample.
Zach LaVine ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) is underpriced on the blue site and still rates well at a more appropriate price on DraftKings. He has been excellent through most of the year, averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute, and he still has an excellent 63.7% true shooting percentage for the season. LaVine looks under-owned on both sites, making him a significant opportunity at a good value.
Collin Sexton ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) lands around his appropriate pricing on both sites, though the higher mark on DraftKings makes him a worse relative value on that site. Sexton averages 0.98 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. Without his currently questionable running mate Garland, as well as Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. off the court, that rate jumps to 1.06. The Cavaliers are likely to be without all of those players tonight, Garland’s absence would push Sexton up the board, he is currently listed as a game time decision.
Dillon Brooks ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) should see plenty of opportunity in the highest totaled game of the night, playing without Melton. He fits nicely into the mid-range of salaries, giving him some utility, and he is eligible at the small forward spot on DraftKings, giving him significant utility across sites. Brooks is typically scoring-dependent, but is capable of a ceiling game at these prices. He sees 25.1% usage in this situation and is a willing shooter, though his true shooting percentage has been just 50.5% in the situation this season. Ultimately Brooks is a heat check option who needs the ball to fall, but he is in play for this slate.
C.J. McCollum ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) stands out for it taking this long to get to him on this list. McCollum is at a very reasonable price on both sites and has excellent upside. He will be under-owned to hilarious degrees across both DraftKings and FanDuel, and makes an excellent tournament play. McCollum averages 1.18 fantasy points per minute for the season and has averaged 35.1 minutes per game over the team’s last 10. He is fully healthy and productive, roster him while he is at a low price and too-low ownership.
Additional values include Luke Kennard, who would see increased opportunity with the expected absences for the Clippers; Terrence Ross, who could always explode for points given his usage and shooting acumen; Gary Trent Jr. who does not have the same upside as last night, but went off in a big way and could produce despite a high price; and Josh Jackson who slots into the unpredictable value-based Detroit backcourt.
Small Forward
The three has some viable options this Sunday, with both stars and value plays on the board at what can be a very flat position at times. The small forward spot adds a number of players on DraftKings, with Luka Doncic, Brooks, Kennard, Marcus Morris, DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson and Trent picking up eligibility on the site.
Khris Middleton ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) is one of two high-end players at the position tonight, three if you’re a Brandon Ingram fan. Middleton stands atop the FanDuel boom/bust board when sorting by the optimal-lineup rate metric, and he ranks in the same position by a handful of percentage points on the DraftKings slate. He is at an excellent value price on FanDuel and is very affordable while providing multi-position eligibility between guard and forward spots across sites. Middleton averages 1.09 fantasy points per minute for the season, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful, there is explosive value available in Middleton’s talent. Without the superstar on the floor, Middleton’s usage spikes to 31.3% and he puts up 1.25 fantasy points per minute, which you may recognize as far more than his standard rate. The public is asleep on this play, Middleton has significant positive leverage on both sites as of the mid-afternoon.
Jimmy Butler ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) is fairly priced, but with a fair amount of value on the board, he is not difficult to get to, and he ranks out well for value on the slate. Butler averages a whopping 1.37 fantasy points per minute for the season, and he will be without both Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo on the floor today, which pushes his production up to around 1.41 points per minute. Butler is excellent across the stat line, averaging a 23.6% rebounding rate and a 28.9% assist share. Getting to Butler appears like a strong play tonight.
O.G. Anunoby ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is a somewhat volatile player in that he gets many of his fantasy points via ancillary scoring categories like rebounding and steals, which adds to his appeal in situations where he is healthy and getting full run at a good price. Anunoby averages 14.6 real points with an 18.3% usage rate and a solid 20.3% rebounding rate across all situations. The Raptors have question marks around key rotation pieces, including all three of their nominal stars, any of whose absence would increase the opportunity for Anunoby. The absence of two or all three of the team’s primary players would thrust him toward the top of several ranking categories, despite a fair price. In the team’s last game in that situation, Anunoby scored 15 real points on 5-11 shooting with five rebounds and three assists but surprisingly no stocks.
Naji Marshall ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) comes in as a strong value play on both sites. He has averaged 25.6 minutes per game over the team’s last five, as the Pelicans deal with injury and absence in the rotation. Marshall sees just 13.8% of the team’s usage in the sample, but efficiently turns it into seven real points per game, to go with his 4.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.6 stocks per game in the small sample. There is potential for production at the price, should Marshall see the same minutes.
Brandon Ingram ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is Marshall’s more expensive teammate at the same position. He is projected for a full run of starter’s minutes in a good matchup against the Cavaliers, but there is nothing special about the pricing for Ingram on either site. He averages 0.83 per minute in just 73 minutes without all of Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the floor, the situation he will be in this evening. Ingram is fairly priced and popular on both sites.
Norman Powell ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) is at two fairly different prices across sites. On the DraftKings slate he adds utility by slotting in at both guard and forward, while on FanDuel he is simply a mix-in option — though one with an excellent leverage score and some upside — on the slate. Powell has averaged just 0.84 fantsay points per minute in 256 minutes since coming to Portland, but he has upside at these prices.
Similarly ranked players can be found down the positional salary spectrum. These include players such as Nicolas Batum, who will benefit from absences in the Clippers rotation; Josh Richardson who should see more utility in the Mavericks lineup without Maxi Kleber; Kyle Anderson who is in play at his price in the highest totaled game of the day; as well as Keldon Johnson, R.J. Barrett, Edwards and several others from the mid-tier. There is a plateau of value behind the highly ranked players at the position tonight.
Power Forward
Power forward is a position with a couple standout star players in great spots, and then numerous value plays available. The slate on DraftKings adds Marshall, Taurean Prince, Anunoby, Anderson, Saddiq Bey and Batum to the mix.
Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) slots in as a center on DraftKings but a power forward on FanDuel. He comes in at a very fair price on both sites, considering his unexpectedly excellent 1.20 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. With a 30.8 minute projection from Awesemo, given the absences of a number of players in the Cleveland frontcourt, there is a major upside situation. Hartenstein is the leading value play of the day in the afternoon. Hartenstein has posted a whopping 1.45 fantasy points per minute in the situation without Allen and Nance, as well as Garland off the floor. Given that situation tonight, he is essentially a must-roster, though he will be very popular.
Bobby Portis ($6,300 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) will be more popular among NBA DFS players on both sites. Portis has ticked up production in situations where his superstar teammate is off the floor, there is significant upside and Portis is not priced appropriately. In games without Antetokounmpo on the floor, Portis has put up 1.13 fantasy points per minute. The only issue will be that everyone playing tonight’s slate knows this and is looking forward to utilizing Portis. He has one of the worst leverage scores in recent memory on FanDuel, and does not improve by much on DraftKings. With other potential plays on the board, this could be a spot to think about a pivot, though in an ownership vacuum, Portis is likely the top power forward.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is not at a value price, but the productive power forward stands out in a good spot against the lowly Spurs. He will not have much competition in the frontcourt and should be able to do whatever he wants offensively. Porzingis will potentially see a couple of additional minutes without Maxi Kleber, though it is unlikely to make a big impact. Ultimately rostering Porzingis is about his 1.25 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season.
Zion Williamson ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) is handling a ton of the ball distribution duties for the guard-depleted Pelicans squad and he is a per-minute beast at 1.31. Over the team’s last five games, Williamson has seen his assist share climb to a 33.3% mark, while his rebounding is at a 25.8% and he consumes 32.6% of the team’s usage. Williamson has averaged 29 real points across that sample, he makes for an excellent option as a pay-up play at the power forward.
Pascal Siakam ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is at a relatively high price, given his questionable status and the rotation in which he plays when all of the team’s options are healthy. A standout player on his own, Siakam averages just 1.12 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, as the team distributes usage equitably between him and his guard teammates. Siakam would benefit if he is the lone man in from the trio, and the public would likely be well behind the play at that point. As of the mid-afternoon, Siakam has a strong positive leverage score, though he does not stand out as much of an upside play on DraftKings or FanDuel at the prices.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,700 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) should benefit from seeing a few minutes at the center spot, in the absence of teammate Myles Turner. Sabonis has been excellent this season, putting up 1.24 fantasy points per minute across all situations, without Turner that climbs to 1.33 points per minute. Sabonis is an excellent contributor, he will see an increased opportunity for rebounds in the situation, and he already puts up a strong 31% assist share. Sabonis should have major upside opportunity and is a strong play with a bit of positive leverage at power forward on both sites.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) is another player who is a center on DraftKings but a power forward on the blue site. He is projected for 29.2 minutes tonight with the Pistons missing Grant, among others. Stewart has put up 0.95 fantasy points per minute in these situations this season. The rate stays about the same, but the opportunity and minutes would likely increase a bit if Mason Plumlee sits. There could be solid upside in Stewart on both sites tonight.
Julius Randle ($9,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) bumped into the $10,000 price ceiling and has dropped slightly after underperforming for a few games upon getting there. Still the best play and player on the Knicks, Randle has had an excellent season, exceeding all expectations. He has put up 1.21 fantasy points per minute, and his game has grown in every facet. Over the course of the year, Randle has a 30.2% rebounding rate and a 36.7% assist percentage, while leading the team with 27.3% usage to score his 22.8 real points per game. Ultimately there is just not much room for upside, at the salary, Randle slots in as a mix-and-match play.
Additional power forward plays include: Trevor Ariza who will be popular and will have utility for his $3,600 price on DraftKings, but is basically off the board on FanDuel; Morris, who should see significant time for the depleted Clippers; James Johnson, who has similar absence-created opportunity for the Pelicans and is pulling in a 29-minute projection; Thaddeus Young, Robert Covington, and Daniel Theis.
Center
The critical center spot has several stars and a few strong value plays. With most of the power forwards retaining center eligibility on DraftKings, the position has significant depth tonight, and one can mix and match their way through numerous combinations of players. Adding center eligibility on the site are Hartenstein, Portis, Porzingis, Williamson, Siakam, Sabonis, Stewart, Young and Covington.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,100 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) has put up 1.36 fantasy points per minute since arriving in the middle for the Chicago Bulls at the trade deadline. He puts up a strong 24.3 real point scoring average between Orlando and Chicago this season, and is seeing 27.7% usage with the Bulls. He pulls down an excellent rebounding rate and adds a solid assist share as well. Vucevic makes sense as a pay-up play. He has slightly positive leverage on FanDuel, but will be slightly overexposed across sites. At the price, he ranks ahead of Karl-Anthony Towns on both sites.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) is the most expensive center on both sites. He has posted a 1.40 fantasy points per minute for the season, seeing an average of 34.6 minutes per game. Over the team’s last 10 games, that mark has climbed to 37.1, and it is at 38.2 over the last five. Towns has seen 29.1% usage through that five game stretch, turning it into 30.8 real points per game. He adds a dominant 40.9% rebounding percentage and a 25.5% assist share in the sample, making him an excellent but expensive play on most slates. Tonight is no exception, Towns stands near the top of the board, but drops in multiple boom/bust categories simply on relative pricing.
Mohamed Bamba ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has value for the pricing on both sites. He is currently questionable to take the floor, however, so this bears monitoring. If he plays, Bamba will be in a decent spot to produce, taking on the Bucks without their superstar. Bamba averages 1.24 fantasy points per minute in his limited role across all situations this season. He has been averaging around 20 minutes per game, but with several teammates also on the shelf or questionable, there is upside for more time, which would make it easy for Bamba to put up a ceiling score.
Willy Hernangomez ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is projected for 22 minutes tonight, which would make an interesting opportunity, given the 1.35 fantasy points per minute he puts up in the situation without the trio of missing teammates that he finds himself in tonight. At an extreme value price on both sites, Hernangomez seems to have significant value and utility, though there are stronger options on the board with the singular center on FanDuel, using him to pay up to be different at other spots and getting to alternate construction paths could be a strong approach. Hernangomez could slot in as a nice differentiation play alongside other centers on DraftKings.
Chris Boucher ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is in an ok spot without much defensive resistance in the opposing Knicks frontcourt, though they have a strong defensive team and play at a slow pace, reducing the overall upside. Boucher benefits when all or some of his star teammates are off the floor. This one is very much a wait and see, given the question marks in the Raptors rotation. If several key teammates are out once again, Boucher and the rest of the Raptors become highly slate-relevant, even in a bad matchup for NBA DFS purposes.
Bam Adebayo ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) is not much more than a mix and match play on this slate. He is in roughly his normal situation, though his fantasy production slips slightly without Herro and Oladipo on the floor, as he gets some fantasy production from his passing acumen. Adebayo is priced up for the production he has shown all season, contributing an excellent 1.26 fantasy points per minute in all situations. In this spot, with the expectation of a small downturn, it is difficult to justify paying up to him against stronger options.
Additional center values include: Ivica Zubac who will be significantly over-exposed on the FanDuel slate, where he costs just $4,600, though DraftKings owners are less excited about his $5,100 price tag and he is simply a mix-in option on that site; Brook Lopez who will see value like the other Bucks without their superstar; and Wendell Carter who will be popular on DraftKings for $5,700, in a reverse situation from Zubac.
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