The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Friday, 5/28

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 28

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($11,000 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) has posted two monster games so far in this series, producing 71.5 DraftKings points in the first game and 61.25 DraftKings points in the second. Doncic played about 41 minutes in the first and 38 minutes in the second and we can expect 38-plus minutes from him again tonight. Overall this season, Doncic averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute in 40 games with Kristaps Porzingis active. Doncic currently sits in the No. 1 spot in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections at 57.97 points tonight.

Kyrie Irving ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) hasn’t lived up to his salary in either of the first two games of the series, but he certainly has the talent to do so tonight in his return to Boston. Irving played about 37 minutes in the first game of the series, which was the only competitive game so far. In 10 games with James Harden and Kevin Durant active, including the postseason, Irving has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 26.4 percent usage rate and 17.5 percent assist rate in those games. It is difficult to prioritize Irving at this price point, but he makes for an interesting GPP target as long as his projected ownership remains relatively low.

Trae Young ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) played 35.5 minutes last game and it is difficult to expect much more from him after Nate McMillan’s postgame comments about 35 minutes being “a lot of minutes”. Even so, Young is fairly priced. He has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute through the first two games of this series, which is in line with his season average of 1.37 DraftKings points per minute.

Kemba Walker ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has only played 27 and 31 minutes in the first two games of this series. There is no cause for alarm, however, as he was hampered by foul trouble in the first game, and he didn’t play in the fourth quarter of a blowout in the second game. Assuming tonight’s game is competitive and he avoids foul trouble, we can expect 36-plus minutes from Walker. In 12 games without Jaylen Brown and with Jayson Tatum this season, including the playoffs, Walker has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate.

Derrick Rose ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) has led the Knicks in minutes in each of the first two games of this series. He started the second half of the last game in place of Elfrid Payton and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Rose start tonight’s game. It feels strange to expect more than 36 minutes from Rose in any given game, but there is really no reason not to expect that tonight in Game 3. Rose has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute overall since joining the Knicks and 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 649 minutes alongside Julius Randle.

Reggie Jackson ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) stands out as a value option on DraftKings in particular. Jackson played 21.3 minutes in the first game of the series and then he played 30.1 minutes in the second game — closing both halves. There should be more small-ball lineups from the Clippers going forward, which bodes well for Jackson’s playing time. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 40 games played with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George active this season. If we get 24 to 26 minutes from Jackson tonight, he is likely to satisfy his salary on DraftKings.

Top DraftKings Picks: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose

Top FanDuel Picks: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Derrick Rose

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Shooting Guard

James Harden ($10,300 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) is always a strong option, but it will be difficult to prioritize him ahead of Doncic given the other mouths that need to be fed in the Nets’ offense. In 10 games alongside Durant and Irving, including the playoffs, Harden has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. He only has a 20.7 percent usage rate, but he has also contributed a 39.9 percent assist rate. In the two postseason games, Harden’s usage rate is 25 percent and his assist rate is 35.3 percent. He has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in those games and his production going forward should be closer to that rate because it is unlikely that he maintains a 20 percent usage rate as the sample size grows.

Paul George ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) stands out in a big way, as he’s one of the top value plays tonight, according to Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball projections. George played 39.9 minutes in Game 1 and followed it up with 40.5 minutes in the second game. He averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games played alongside Leonard this season.

Marcus Smart ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has played in nine games without Brown and with Tatum and Walker this season, including the playoffs. In those games, Smart has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute. He isn’t a high-usage player and doesn’t contribute especially well in any one category, but he offers enough production across all categories to be a reasonable DFS value at his salary. He is likely to play 38-plus minutes tonight as long as the game is competitive.

Terance Mann ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is a risky option but Tyronn Lue said after Game 2 that he wants to get Mann more minutes going forward. This is one reason why the Clippers should utilize smaller lineups for the rest of the series. Mann didn’t play in the first half of the Clippers’ last game, but he played the final 15.2 minutes of the game. Mann averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season and is likely to pay off his inexpensive salary if he finds his way into 20 to 22 minutes tonight. There is no guarantee that he plays that many minutes, which is why he is risky, but there is a path to success especially if he is playing well.

Top DraftKings Picks: Paul George, Marcus Smart

Top FanDuel Picks: Paul George, Marcus Smart

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/28/2021″ team=”clippers”]

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($9,600 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) is my preferred option of the Nets’ stars tonight for a few reasons. First, his position is relatively weak, so the opportunity cost is lower. Second, he leads the trio with a 33.5 percent usage rate through the first two games of the series and he has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute. Third, he has played a couple minutes more than Harden and Irving in each of the first two games. Overall this season, including the playoffs, Durant has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.7 percent usage rate in 10 games alongside Irving and Harden.

Kawhi Leonard ($8,500 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is the top overall value on DraftKings in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, while he is more appropriately priced on FanDuel. He is a strong option on either site, but clearly better on DraftKings. Leonard has played about 41 minutes in each of the first two games and we obviously shouldn’t expect him to start playing fewer minutes with the Clippers trailing two games to none in the series. Leonard averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games alongside George during the regular season. He has averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute in the first two games of this series.

Evan Fournier ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is a strong mid-range option, especially on FanDuel where he is $700 less expensive than he is on DraftKings. Fournier played 38.5 minutes in the first game of the series and then played 27 minutes through three quarters of the second game. Including the two playoff games, Fournier has played seven games without Brown and with Walker and Tatum this season. In those games, he has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.7 percent usage rate and 15.7 percent assist rate.

De’Andre Hunter ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) only played 22.3 minutes in the first game of the series but he followed it up with 32 minutes in the second game. He should see similar minutes to the second game going forward. Hunter is an important part of the Hawks, as he is a strong defender and now we know that he is physically able to play a full allotment of minutes after missing most of the season with various injuries. In 23 total games this season, Hunter averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute, so he projects as a strong value as long as he plays about 32 minutes again tonight.

Top DraftKings Picks: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, De’Andre Hunter

Top FanDuel Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Evan Fournier, De’Andre Hunter

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) has struggled through the first two games of this series, averaging only 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. He has played about 36 minutes in each of the first two games, which is actually less than expected going forward — especially if he starts to play better. His salary isn’t particularly appealing, but he makes for an intriguing GPP option given his struggles and relatively low ownership projection.

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) is my preferred pay-up option among power forwards. Tatum has only produced 0.92 DraftKings points per minute through the first two games of the series, but he is clearly the best player on the Celtics, and he will have every opportunity to step up and perform at a higher level. In 10 regular season games without Brown and with Walker, Tatum averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.4 percent usage rate. He has a 30.6 percent usage rate through the first two games of this series, and his production should increase going forward.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) has played 35.8 and 32 minutes in the first two games of this series. He is underpriced for his playing time and production. Porzingis has only produced 0.87 DraftKings points per minute through the first two games of this series, but he averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 40 games alongside Doncic during the regular season. One concern is that Porzingis only has about a 20 percent usage rate in the postseason compared to 26.3 percent during the regular season. His rebounding rate and assist rate are much lower than during the regular season also, but those are likely to bounce back as the sample size increases.

John Collins ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) dealt with massive foul trouble last game and ended up only playing 14.6 minutes. He is an appealing GPP option because he is relatively inexpensive and anyone looking at box scores is going to shy away. He played 35.2 minutes in the first game of the series, however, and he should see similar playing time going forward as long as he can avoid foul trouble. Collins averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 51 games with Young and Clint Capela during the regular season. Collins is coming in just a tick under 30 points in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections tonight.

Maxi Kleber ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) is questionable tonight, but if he plays, he projects as a strong point-per-dollar value on DraftKings in particular. Kleber only averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games played alongside Doncic and Porzingis this season, but he has played 36 and 34.2 minutes in the first two games of this series.

Top DraftKings Picks: Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Maxi Kleber

Top FanDuel Picks: Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, John Collins

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Center

Clint Capela ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) stands out as the clear top center option on a slate with a very shallow center position. Capela’s biggest issue during the regular season was that he only averaged about 30 minutes per game, so you were forced to overpay for him in DFS and hope for a couple extra minutes. In the playoffs, however, he has played 34.6 and 36.1 minutes through the first two games. He hasn’t been productive, averaging only 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, but his production to improve going forward. Overall this season, including the two postseason games, Capela has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in 65 games played.

Robert Williams ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) and Tristan Thompson ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) are likely to split center minutes for the Celtics. In Game 1 of the series, Thompson played 24.8 minutes while Williams played 22.7 minutes and was in the closing lineup. In Game 2, Thompson played 24.6 minutes and Williams played 16.7 minutes. Williams missed his final stint of the game due to the blowout, however. In the first half, Williams played about 11 minutes and closed the half. Thompson is the “safer” option in terms of minutes since he is the starter and he has played a couple more minutes than Williams in each of the first two games, but Williams is the higher-ceiling option as he has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute this season compared to Thompson’s 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball projections have Williams projected for 24 minutes tonight.

Taj Gibson ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is worth a look on DraftKings in particular because he is close to minimum salary and he also has power forward eligibility. Gibson played about 24 minutes in the series opener, closing the game after Nerlens Noel left with an injury, and then he played 30.2 minutes in the second game. Gibson also started the second half of that game ahead of Noel. If Noel remains in the starting lineup tonight, Gibson is a risky option, but he would still be likely to play at least 20 minutes. If he replaces Noel in the starting lineup, Gibson should get 28-plus minutes.

Top DraftKings Picks: Clint Capela, Robert Williams

Top FanDuel Picks: Clint Capela, Robert Williams


Be sure to check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Adam and Josh!


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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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