This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS strategy and picks article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 26
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($11,400 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel) played 42.7 minutes in the series opener against the 76ers, which wasn’t a surprise since he averaged nearly 40 minutes per game over the last month of the regular season and Scott Brooks said he would extend his starter’s minutes in the Philadelphia series since they had finally gotten a couple days of rest beforehand. Westbrook is one of the best per-minute producers in the league, averaging 1.68 DraftKings points per minute in 28 games played alongside Bradley Beal since the All-Star break. His per-minute production is likely to decrease during a playoff series against one of the most efficient defenses in the NBA, but that is the case for many other players as well since playoff teams tend to be more difficult matchups.
Trae Young ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Knicks, who are one of the slowest teams in the league and also one of the most efficient defenses. Young’s salary is similar to his regular season salary, however, and he can be expected to play more minutes per game in the playoffs than he played during the regular season. Young averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute and 34.3 minutes per game in 51 games played with Clint Capela and John Collins active this season. In the first game of the series against the Knicks, Young played 35.3 minute. While that is a relatively low total for a playoff game, it is likely to be one of the lower totals that he plays in this series.
Ben Simmons ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) has been a frustrating DFS option for most of the season, but he benefits from a matchup against the Washington Wizards tonight. Most players are in difficult matchups, but the 76ers have one of the most favorable matchups possible as they face one of the fastest teams in the league. Simmons played 38.1 minutes against Washington in Game 1 and he averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in 37 games played with Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris this season. He is particularly underpriced on DraftKings.
Derrick Rose ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) is one of my favorite types of players to target early in the playoffs. We saw Rose’s playing time increase down the stretch during the regular season and he is someone the Knicks would rather not run into the ground before it really counts. It makes sense for them to take any restrictions away once the playoffs start, however, and that is what we saw in Game 1 as Rose led the Knicks with 37.8 minutes. Rose has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games since joining the Knicks, and his price tag will quickly rise as the playoffs continue. With his minutes and production, Rose is the No. 5 overall value play on the slate tonight in our Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Top DraftKings Picks: Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, Derrick Rose
Top FanDuel Pick: Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) has been playing through a hamstring injury since the end of the regular season, but it hasn’t limited his playing time. He played 41 minutes in the series opener against the 76ers on Sunday and led the Wizards with 33 points. Beal averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.4 percent usage rate in 28 games alongside Westbrook since the All-Star break this season. He also has had success against the 76ers, and while it isn’t something that we should weigh too heavily, is nice to see given the Sixers’ defensive strength. Beal has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in four games against Philly, including 79.8 DraftKings points on the back of a 60-point scoring performance in January.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) will return to the lineup tonight for the first time since the middle of April. There has not been anything official on his playing time, but the assumption is that he won’t be limited as long as he doesn’t suffer a setback. He was dealing with a sprained ankle as opposed to a knee injury or something potentially more serious, and he practiced three times last week. If we get 34 to 36 minutes, or more, from Mitchell he will stand out as one of the best shooting guard options since his salary is relatively inexpensive after the long layoff. In the current run of Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections, Mitchell is projecting out at 35.49 points tonight. Mitchell averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in 42 games played alongside Mike Conley this season.
Immanuel Quickley ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is difficult to trust since Tom Thibodeau has been reluctant to play him as many minutes as we would like for most of the season, but he played 21.1 minutes in the series opener. There have also been rumors that Elfrid Payton won’t be in the rotation going forward, so keep an eye on the starting lineup tonight. If Rose starts ahead of Payton, it is likely a good sign for Quickley’s playing time (though Frank Ntilikina could replace Payton’s minutes for defensive reasons). Either way, it is difficult to find cheap value on a three-game playoff slate, so it is worth rolling the dice on Quickley and hoping that we get another 20 minutes or so at close to minimum salary.
Top DraftKings Picks: Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell
Top FanDuel Picks: Bradley Beal, Donovan Mitchell
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/26/2021″ team=”jazz”]
Small Forward
R.J. Barrett ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) only played 32 minutes in the series opener, and that is concerning because he lost playing time when Alec Burks was active this season. Barrett averaged 32.9 minutes per game in 49 games with Burks active compared to 39 minutes per game in 23 games without Burks. Still, there is a three-game slate tonight, so take what is given. Barrett is reasonably priced and could play more minutes if he is playing well. He averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in the 49 games played with Burks active this season. He certainly isn’t exciting, but nothing at this position is going to make you feel too good. Barrett’s 29-point projection is good enough for the No. 3 overall spot among small forwards in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Kyle Anderson ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) played about 31 minutes in the Grizzlies’ opener against Utah and that is a reasonable expectation going forward. Anderson has been surprisingly productive this season on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in nine games with Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson all active and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 69 total games played. The matchup against Utah is one of the least appealing in DFS, however, so keep your expectations for Anderson in check.
Alec Burks ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,500 SG FanDuel) is an intriguing value option on DraftKings in particular. He played 26.1 minutes off the bench in the first game of the series, and he closed the game over Reggie Bullock. Burks scored 18 points in the fourth quarter so we can’t necessarily conclude that he is likely to be in the closing lineup if he isn’t playing extremely well, but he has closed often enough this season that we know it is a strong possibility. In 23 games played with Rose, Barrett and Julius Randle active this season, Burks has averaged 23.2 minutes per game and 0.85 DraftKings points per minute. We know that he has the potential to play several more minutes if he is playing well, however, and that kind of volatility makes him appealing at a cheap price point and weak position.
Danny Green ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) is tough to rely on, but he does have a favorable matchup against Washington and he is inexpensive. Green played about 31 minutes in the opener on Sunday, and he should see playing time going forward. He has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 36 games played alongside Simmons, Embiid and Harris this season.
Top DraftKings Picks: R.J. Barrett, Alec Burks, Danny Green
Top FanDuel Picks: R.J. Barrett, Rui Hachimura, Danny Green
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,800 FanDuel) played 36.2 minutes in Game 1, and, barring injury or foul trouble, that is probably the fewest minutes that he plays in this series. Randle was one of the league leaders in minutes per game during the regular season, frequently approaching 40 minutes, and he should reach those levels going forward. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season and is a strong pay-up option at power forward.
Tobias Harris ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) stands out as one of the top options on the slate. He played 37 minutes in Game 1 and torched the Wizards for 37 points. He had 29 field goal attempts in the game. Playoff series are always interesting because teams have time to gameplan, and one individual player often plays a bigger role in a series than they typically would during the regular season. The Wizards would rather force Ben Simmons to shoot, but their main priority is going to be finding some way to slow down Embiid. If they commit multiple defenders to Embiid, which is basically their only chance at slowing him down at all, they can’t be too picky about where the ball goes once Embiid passes it. Even if Harris were to return to his normal regular season role, he would project well at his price point in this matchup.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) is an intriguing tournament option because of his volatility and the fact he is coming off a poor performance in Game 1. He only played 23.8 minutes in that game and he dealt with some foul trouble as he picked up three fouls in the second quarter. Jackson fouls at a ridiculous high rate so there is foul risk again tonight, and the matchup is difficult, but he is a strong fantasy producer when he is on the floor. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 61 starts since the beginning of last season. The Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections have him right at 24 minutes, so we should expect somewhere in the 25.5- or 26-point neighborhood.
Rui Hachimura ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,100 SF FanDuel) has only averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games played alongside Westbrook and Beal this season, but he is inexpensive and likely to play 35-plus minutes tonight. He played 36.1 minutes in the first game of the series and the Wizards need him to step up and play well if they are going to have any chance in this series as they need someone other than Beal and Westbrook to play well. Given the lack of options on this slate, I’m relatively comfortable taking my chances with about 36 minutes of Hachimura at his current salary.
Davis Bertans ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is basically a cheaper version of Hachimura from a DFS perspective. Bertans is a scoring-dependent player who doesn’t have a high usage rate, so he has a very low floor. The Wizards need him to play well in the playoffs, however, as he would open up a lot of things offensively if he starts knocking down 3-pointers. He played 27.9 minutes in the series opener, and he should see at least 27 or 28 minutes in each game going forward. Bertans has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 45 games alongside Beal and Westbrook this season.
Top DraftKings Picks: Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Rui Hachimura
Top FanDuel Picks: Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Davis Bertans
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,100 FanDuel) only played about 30 minutes in the opener due to foul trouble, but he still scored 30 points. Embiid probably will not see foul trouble again in the series, so we can expect at least five or six more minutes per game going forward. The Wizards don’t have an answer for Embiid, as most teams don’t, so he looks like one of the best spend-up options tonight. He averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in 37 regular season games alongside Simmons and Harris. Embiid carries a 53.37-point projection into tonight’s game, trailing only Westbrook in terms of a rw points projection standpoint in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Jonas Valanciunas ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) started playing more minutes for the Grizzlies down the final stretch of the regular season and he played 39.4 minutes against Utah on Sunday. Valanciunas is an excellent per-minute fantasy producer, so the increased playing time means that he offers a massive ceiling for his price point. Valanciunas averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in the nine games that he played with Morant, Brooks, Anderson and Jackson active this season and 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in 62 total games.
Clint Capela ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) is similar to Valanciunas in that he is an excellent per-minute producer who is likely to play more minutes now that we are in the postseason. Capela will not play close to 40 minutes like Valanciunas did in his last game, but Capela played about 34 minutes in the series opener, and he will see similar playing time going forward. He has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute this season. He projects lower than Valanciunas but is worth a look as a tournament pivot if Valanciunas garners significantly more ownership.
Rudy Gobert ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) fouled out in only 25 minutes in the series opener. He averaged 30.8 minutes per game during the regular season and is likely to play mid-thirties in the postseason. We can throw away his Game 1 performance and project him for at least eight or nine more minutes tonight against Memphis. Gobert averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings Picks: Joel Embiid, Jonas Valanciunas, Rudy Gobert
Top FanDuel Picks: Joel Embiid, Jonas Valanciunas, Rudy Gobert
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