This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS advice article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow for building strong lineups and making optimal daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 2
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($11,400 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) headlines an extremely deep point guard position tonight. Westbrook posted a monster game on Monday night, scoring 72.75 DraftKings points despite shooting 3-for-19 from the field. It was his second straight triple-double and a reminder that he always has a massive ceiling regardless of matchup. The matchup is a bit more favorable tonight with Joel Embiid sidelined since that could open up more rebounds for Westbrook as well as an easier time scoring around the rim. Still, the 76ers are a strong defensive team and Westbrook will have his work cut out for him. He has played 43 and 42 minutes in the two competitive games in this series, and he will play 40-plus minutes again tonight if the game is remotely close in the fourth quarter.
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel) torched the Clippers in the first three games of this series and then struggled in Game 4 as he dealt with a neck strain. Word out of Dallas is that Doncic is feeling better entering tonight’s game, so he should return to his normal form. Even with his struggles last game, Doncic has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute and 38.3 minutes per game in this series.
Trae Young ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute and 35.3 minutes per game so far against the Knicks in the postseason. His per-minute production is strong for his price point, but the playing time is somewhat concerning since most star players will play several minutes more than him in competitive games. Nate McMillan doesn’t seem interested in running his stars into the ground, so it is difficult to expect more than 35 to 36 minutes from Young which makes him more of a secondary option than a priority tonight.
Ja Morant ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 40.5 minutes per game through the first four games of the Grizzlies’ series against Utah. The huge minutes help to offset the difficult matchup and Morant has had success on a per-minute basis despite the matchup anyway. He enters tonight’s game with a 31.2 percent usage rate and 28.5 percent assist rate in the series. His salary on FanDuel is more appealing than on DraftKings, but he is a reasonable option on either site.
Ben Simmons ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) should be one of the most popular point guards tonight regardless of site or contest format. Simmons has an excellent matchup against the Wizards, and he has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of the series. His salary remains affordable because he has only averaged 30.3 minutes per game, but that shouldn’t be a cause for alarm. Simmons played about 38 minutes in the first game of the series. He then played 29 and 30 minutes in back-to-back blowout wins. Then he played 25 minutes in a Game 4 loss because he was limited by foul trouble. Barring foul trouble or blowout, Simmons should play 37 or 38 minutes tonight. In addition, he will be playing without Joel Embiid. Simmons averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 1,246 minutes alongside Embiid this season compared to 1.18 DraftKings points per minute without Embiid on the floor. While the average production only increased slightly, Simmons’ ceiling increases substantially as his usage rate increases from 18.5 percent to 24.4 percent and his assist rate increases from 29.2 to 35 percent without Embiid on the floor. His rebounding rate also increases slightly from 12.1 percent to 13 percent. In the most current run of Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball projections, Simmons is projections for 18.98 points, 8.98 rebounds and 8.27 assists.
Mike Conley ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) struggled in his most recent game after three excellent outings to start the series. It is to be expected that his production decreases as Donovan Mitchell plays more minutes, but Conley should still produce. He averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 42 games with Mitchell active this season. He has averaged 34.5 minutes per game through his first four games of the series against Memphis. A rising price tag combined with Mitchell’s return to full strength leaves Conley as a secondary option, but he still offers tournament upside.
Derrick Rose ($7,300 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) only played 32.6 minutes last game as the Knicks were blown out by the Hawks. He has averaged 37 minutes per game in the series, however, and he should play another 38 or 39 minutes tonight if the game is close. Rose has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in the series, which is in line with his season average since joining the Knicks. His salary is rising, but it is still too cheap for his expected playing time.
Reggie Jackson ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the Clippers’ change to using small ball lineups to combat Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Jackson has started each of the last two games, playing 33.6 and 35.5 minutes in those games. Jackson has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in the series and he averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute in 19 games started alongside Paul George and Kawhi Leonard during the regular season.
Top DraftKings Picks: Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Ben Simmons, Derrick Rose
Top FanDuel Picks: Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Ben Simmons, Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) has averaged 39 minutes per game and 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason. While the 1.17 fantasy points per minute is underwhelming for his salary, the fact that Beal is going to play almost the entire game is extremely valuable. He has played 41 and 43 minutes in the two competitive games in the series and played 35 and 37 minutes in the two blowouts. He also leads the Wizards with a 33.5 percent usage rate, giving him a massive ceiling despite being a scoring dependent player. He has already dropped 60 real points on the Sixers once this season, and he should have another big scoring performance before this series is over.
Paul George ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has also played huge minutes this postseason with 39.3 minutes per game. He has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.9 percent usage rate. He projects similarly to Beal, with George at 46.40 points and Beal at 47.95 in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections tonight. If one is higher owned than the other in tournaments, lean toward the lower owned of the two. Otherwise, just use whichever one fits better with the rest of the lineup.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) is underpriced as his salary hasn’t adjusted to his return to full strength. Mitchell played about 26 minutes in his first game back from injury and then played about 30 minutes. Last game, however, he played 34.7 minutes and closed both halves for the first time since his return. He should play at least 35 minutes tonight and think it is relatively likely that he plays 37 or 38 minutes. He has dominated usage since returning, posting a 40.6 percent usage rate in his three postseason games. He also has a healthy 25.5 percent assist rate and has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in 42 total games played alongside Conley during the regular season.
Seth Curry ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) was one of the highest-owned value options last slate, which led to a $500 price bump on DraftKings and a $1,000 price increase on FanDuel. He still projects as a strong value, however, as the Wizards will allow him plenty of open looks. Curry has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and 27.2 minutes per game so far in the series.
Grayson Allen ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) has closed each of the last two games, playing between 29 and 30 minutes in each of them. There is no guarantee that he closes again tonight, but it is obviously a possibility, and he is extremely inexpensive. In addition to volatile playing time, Allen also isn’t a particularly good fantasy producer. He has averaged just 0.54 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, but he did produce 0.82 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season. Long story short, Allen has an extremely low floor and a mediocre ceiling, but it can be difficult to find value to fill out your lineups in the postseason so Allen may have some use in that role.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/02/2021″ team=”grizzlies”]
Top DraftKings Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Donovan Mitchell
Top FanDuel Picks: Bradley Beal, Paul George, Donovan Mitchell
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) is the clear top option at an absolutely disgusting small forward position. Every other player at the position has huge question marks in terms of playing time and/or production, but Leonard has neither. He has been excellent against the Mavericks so far, producing 1.43 DraftKings points per minute and averaging 39.8 minutes per game. There are plenty of options in Leonard’s price range (and above it), but he has a lower opportunity cost than most given the lack of depth at his position — this is especially true on FanDuel where you must roster two players at small forward and there is no multi-position eligibility.
Kyle Anderson ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) only played 24.2 minutes last game as De’Anthony Melton and Grayson Allen were both in the closing lineup ahead of him. For the series, however, Anderson has averaged 31 minutes per game. He has also been relatively productive with 1 DraftKings point per minute. There is risk here because no one can be certain about Anderson’s playing time and he also has a difficult matchup, but there is risk with just about every player at this position.
R.J. Barrett ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) finally had a good game last time out as he played 35.5 minutes and scored 39.5 DraftKings points. Game 4 was the first game of the series where Barrett played more than 32 minutes, however, so there is no guarantee that he plays close to 36 minutes again tonight. He has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and 30.5 minutes per game in the postseason and he averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute and 32.9 minutes per game in 49 games played with Alec Burks active during the regular season.
Danny Green ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has a favorable matchup against the Wizards, but it is difficult to trust his production since he isn’t going to do much other than shoot 3’s and, hopefully, pick up some defensive stats. Green averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in games played without Embiid and alongside Simmons and Harris during the regular season. So far in the postseason, Green has produced 0.82 DraftKings points per minute in 27.5 minutes per game. According to the daily fantasy basketball projections here at Awesemo, Green is the No. 7 overall value play on the slate tonight.
De’Andre Hunter ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) has only averaged 0.57 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, but he averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute in the 19 games that he started during the regular season. Hunter’s playing time provides reason for optimism at his salary, as he has played 32, 35 and 28 minutes after being limited to about 22 minutes in the first game of the series. He would have played about 31 minutes in Atlanta’s last game had it been competitive until the end. Hunter was relatively low owned two games ago and then was extremely popular last game and let everyone down. Nothing about his situation has changed, but his ownership will almost certainly drop after his performance last game. In general, those are my favorite players to target in tournaments (though rostering Hunter still scares me).
Nicolas Batum ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is the value small forward option that I feel the most confident in, which just feels like an absurd statement to write given this is Batum. He started the second half in place of Ivica Zubac two games ago and then was in the starting lineup last game. He played 36.1 minutes in that game and lost about four minutes to blowout. He tied with Leonard for the team lead with a +27 rating, and he should play a lot of minutes again tonight as long as he plays reasonably well. He started 25 games with Leonard and George active during the regular season and averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute, which would be more than enough to justify his salary if his playing time is similar to last game.
Top DraftKings Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum
Top FanDuel Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum, Rui Hachimura
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is having a difficult postseason, but his salary is falling as a result. Randle has only averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason after producing 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in the regular season. Some of his struggles can be attributed to the Hawks’ defensive efforts, so it’s not as simple as just saying that Randle will bounce back sooner or later. That said, he is capable of producing 50 to 60 fantasy points and he is relatively inexpensive for that type of ceiling. He still has a 30.3 usage rate, 16.8 percent rebounding rate and 20 percent assist rate in the postseason, so it isn’t like he has disappeared from the offense. If Randle is popular, it will be easy to look elsewhere, as this is a deep position with a lot of high-upside options, but he is an intriguing tournament option if he comes at low ownership.
Tobias Harris ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) is the clear-cut top option at power forward. He has the best matchup on the slate against the Wizards and he will get to face them without Joel Embiid. Harris averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.4 percent usage rate in 16 games played alongside Simmons and without Embiid this season compared to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.9 percent usage rate in 37 games played alongside both players. In 854 total minutes without Embiid on the floor, Harris has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.1 percent usage rate. Despite being incredibly popular, Harris is projected for the fourth-most fantasy points (48.29) and is the No. 1 overall value play in the Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has had a terrible series, but his salary reflects that. He has only averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute through the first four games of the postseason with a 19.9 percent usage rate and 7.4 percent rebounding rate. During the regular season, Porzingis averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate and 15.8 percent rebounding rate. There is no guarantee that Porzingis decides to show up for tonight’s game, but, like Julius Randle, there is a much longer track record of Porzingis producing at a high level than his current level.
John Collins ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is another power forward who has a much higher ceiling than his salary suggests. Collins has averaged only 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this postseason after averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in the games that he played alongside Young and Clint Capela during the regular season. The Knicks are a slow team who defend well, so a decrease in production is expected, but Collins is certainly capable of playing better than he has to this point. He is a risky option, but there is more upside than downside at his price point.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) is the epitome of a risky option with a high ceiling as he fouls at one of the highest rates in the league and frequently loses playing time as a result. He has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute in the postseason, however, and averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 61 games started dating back to the beginning of last season. Jackson has averaged 27 minutes per game so far against Utah.
Rui Hachimura ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,200 SF FanDuel) played 41.5 minutes on Monday night and he will need to take on a big role again tonight with Davis Bertans sidelined until the Finals (where the Wizards will certainly be playing). Hachimura has been a disappointing fantasy producer for most of the season, with 0.75 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games played with Westbrook and Beal active during the regular season and 0.79 DraftKings points per minute so far in the postseason. Still, he is inexpensive and shouldn’t have much trouble paying off his salary if he plays close to 40 minutes tonight.
Marcus Morris ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is another beneficiary of the Clippers’ small lineups. He played 29.4 minutes last game but would have finished with about 33 minutes had the game been competitive until the end. He also lost about three minutes to foul trouble in the first half. Morris averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 21 starts alongside George and Leonard this season, including the postseason. His rebounding numbers are likely to improve as long as the Clippers continue to use small lineups. He averaged five rebound chances per 36 minutes in the first two games of the series compared to 9.7 rebounds chances per game in the last two games after the Clippers starting using smaller lineups.
Taj Gibson ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,500 C FanDuel) is an interesting option in tournaments assuming he stays in the starting lineup. He was the most popular player on the slate in the first game that he started but he struggled with 13.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes. He then struggled again last game at much lower ownership with 16.75 DraftKings points in 24 minutes. He didn’t play in the fourth quarter last game, however, as Obi Toppin closed out the blowout in the frontcourt alongside Randle. Toppin will almost certainly not close a competitive game, so it will be one of Gibson or Noel tonight as long as the game is competitive. Gibson played about 16 minutes in the first half, suggesting that it should not surprise if he ends up with 30 or 32 minutes tonight. He has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in five starts this season, including the postseason.
Top DraftKings Picks: Tobias Harris, Jaren Jackson, Rui Hachimura
Top FanDuel Picks: Tobias Harris, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson, Daniel Gafford, Marcus Morris
Center
Rudy Gobert ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) was disappointing last game, but he has had a strong series overall. Through the first four games against Memphis, Gobert has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute and 32.3 minutes per game. His average playing time is a bit deceiving because he fouled out in about 25 minutes in Game 1 of the series. Since then, he has played 36, 36 and 32 minutes. Gobert’s production is unlikely to be impacted by the increased playing time of Donovan Mitchell since he doesn’t rely on a high usage rate. Go back to Gobert with confidence tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) played 34.5 minutes last game and he has now averaged 34.5 minutes per game in the series as well. He has only averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in the postseason compared to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season. Some of the decreased production can most likely be attributed to the matchup, but Valanciunas has averaged about 1.2 DraftKings points per minute in games against Gobert since the start of last season, he is capable of producing at a higher rate. Between Valanciunas and Gobert I am more confident in Gobert, because Valanciunas’ usage rate and rebounding rate are each about 5 points lower in the postseason than they were during the regular season, but I don’t think there should be much of an ownership gap between them.
Clint Capela ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) has averaged 33.3 minutes per game in the postseason after averaging only about 30 minutes per game during the regular season. Unfortunately, his per-minute production has decreased in the difficult matchup against the Knicks. Capela has produced just 0.96 DraftKings points per minute during the postseason compared to 1.34 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season. He is certainly capable of bouncing back and posting a big game, but his usage rate in the postseason is 11.7 percent compared to 19.9 percent during the regular season, and his rebounding rate in the postseason is 20.9 percent compared to 26.1 percent in the regular season so there is reason for concern. His range of outcomes is similar to Gobert’s and Valanciunas’, so I would have no issue using Capela in tournaments if he is substantially lower owned than the other two, but all things equal he is my third option out of the trio.
Daniel Gafford ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,100 PF FanDuel) started last game and ended up playing 26 minutes despite picking up two fouls in the first four minutes of the game. Joel Embiid’s absence should help Gafford since he is less likely to be in foul trouble without Embiid on the floor. Gafford has been an excellent source of fantasy production this season with 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games since joining the Wizards.
Dwight Howard ($4,300 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) isn’t guaranteed to play a bigger role without Embiid, but it is likely that he will. Howard averaged 22.6 minutes per game in 21 games played without Embiid during the regular season. He came off the bench in 15 of those games and averaged 22.8 minutes per game with 1.28 DraftKings points per minute. Robin Lopez will most likely play all of the minutes that Gafford isn’t on the floor, so it would be weird if Howard doesn’t see increased playing time since the Wizards’ second unit will not go small. Howard only played 13.6 minutes last game despite Embiid not playing after the first quarter, which is a concern, but my expectation is that he plays more minutes tonight. Awesemo daily fantasy basketball stat projections have Howard slated for 22 minutes and 10.25 points and 11.37 rebounds.
Top DraftKings Picks: Rudy Gobert, Daniel Gafford, Dwight Howard
Top FanDuel Picks: Rudy Gobert, Jonas Valanciunas, Dwight Howard
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