The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Wednesday, 5/19

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS picks article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few daily fantasy basketball picks to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal daily fantasy NBA picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 19

Point Guard

Stephen Curry ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) is the top pay-up option on tonight’s slate. He has played phenomenal basketball this season, particularly when Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman are inactive. Both players are out again tonight. Curry has averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute with a 41.0 percent usage rate in 13 games played with both players inactive this season. Curry played 40 minutes in Golden State’s regular season finale against Memphis and we can expect similar playing time tonight against the Lakers.

Dejounte Murray ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is drastically mispriced on DraftKings and offers upside on FanDuel as well. Murray played 41 games with LaMarcus Aldridge inactive and DeMar DeRozan active this season. In those games, he produced 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. He contributes in a variety of areas as he averaged 15.8 points, 5.5 assists, 7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game in those games.

Ja Morant ($8,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is the opposite of Murray as he is clearly underpriced on FanDuel and is more of a tournament-only play on DraftKings. Morant hasn’t quite lived up to expectations this season, but he is still a strong fantasy producer and we can expect him to play more minutes in tonight’s must win game than he typically played during the regular season. Morant played 38 minutes against Golden State in the regular-season finale and I expect similar playing time again tonight. He has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.1 percent usage rate and 33.5 percent assist rate in 63 total games this season. In the most recent run of our daily fantasy NBA projections, Morant is coming in as the No. 4 overall player with 40.55 points.

Top DraftKings Picks: Stephen Curry, Dejounte Murray

Top FanDuel Picks: Stephen Curry, Ja Morant

Get up to a $1,500 Risk Free First Bet

Shooting Guard

Andrew Wiggins ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) normally isn’t someone that is exciting to roster, but he stands out on tonight’s two-game slate. He led Golden State with 35.4 minutes per game over their last 10 games and he played 37.1 minutes in the regular season finale. Wiggins averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 35.6 minutes per game with a 24.1 percent usage rate in 15 games played alongside Curry and without Oubre this season.

Dillon Brooks ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is another Memphis player that we could see benefit from more playing time in the playoffs. Brooks played 29.9 minutes in the regular season finale, but he fouled out with almost six minutes to go in the game. Brooks is likely to play at least 34 to 36 minutes tonight against the Spurs as long as he can avoid foul trouble and he plays reasonably well. Brooks averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.3 percent usage rate in 1,452 minutes played alongside Morant this season.

Lonnie Walker ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) will most likely start for the Spurs with Derrick White sidelined. Walker started 38 games this season and averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute and 28.1 minutes per game. I expect that we see similar playing time tonight, but he could play more if he is playing well.

Patty Mills ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) is someone that I expect to get additional playing time in the playoffs. He is a veteran piece on the Spurs and someone that is less likely to make mistakes late in games than the Spurs’ younger players. Mills only averaged 21.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games of the season, but he averaged 24.8 minutes per game for the entire season. He averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute for the season. If he only plays 21 to 22 minutes tonight, he still projects as Awesemo’s No. 3 overall point-per-dollar value at close to minimum salary on a two-game slate. There is a clear path to more playing time, however.

Top DraftKings Picks: Andrew Wiggins, Dillon Brooks, Patty Mills

Top FanDuel Picks: Andrew Wiggins, DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,0000 FanDuel) played 28.4 minutes in the Lakers’ second to last game of the season and then played 27.5 minutes in a blowout win the final game of the season. My expectation is that James will be able to play a full allotment of minutes tonight, but we will need to keep an eye out for news on a possible limit. Typically, the Lakers let James do whatever he feels is best when it comes to his playing time. It is difficult for me to picture James limiting his playing time in this game. James averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games alongside Anthony Davis this season. He ranks behind Curry for me, but he is still a strong pay-up option.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,500 SG FanDuel) is underpriced on DraftKings and FanDuel (at different positions). DeRozan averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 41 games without Aldridge and with Murray this season. In those games, DeRozan had a 27.1 percent usage rate and 31.8 percent assist rate.

Kyle Anderson ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) is never an easy guy to trust but he is favorably priced tonight on DraftKings in particular. Anderson averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 1,382 minutes alongside Morant this season. One thing to keep in mind is that Anderson’s rebounding numbers will likely drop now that Jaren Jackson Jr. is back in the starting lineup and playing a full allotment of minutes. In 1,291 minutes alongside Morant without Jackson this season, Anderson had a 17.2 percent usage rate and 11.5 percent rebounding rate. In 91 minutes alongside Morant and Jackson, Anderson has only a 15.4 percent usage rate and 5.2 percent rebounding rate. Since the start of last season, Anderson has an 11.6 percent usage rate and 10.1 rebounding rate in 344 minutes alongside Morant and Jackson. I expect Anderson to produce between 0.80 and 0.90 DraftKings points per minute on average going forward as opposed to the 1.07 DraftKings points per minute he has averaged this season. Still, that makes him a reasonable option at $5,300 on DraftKings assuming that he plays around 30 minutes tonight.

Top DraftKings Picks: LeBron James, DeMar DeRozan

Top FanDuel Picks: LeBron James, Keldon Johnson

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Power Forward

Anthony Davis ($10,200 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) played 35.8 minutes in the Lakers’ win over the Pacers last Saturday and followed it up with 30.3 minutes in three quarters of the blowout win over the Pelicans on Sunday. We can expect Davis to give us close to 40 minutes tonight against the Warriors. He has played 27 games alongside LeBron James this season and has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. I have Davis slightly behind James for DFS purposes, especially on FanDuel where there is a larger price difference, but the range of outcomes is extremely similar so don’t hesitate to go to Davis in tournaments if James is getting more ownership.

Draymond Green ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has benefited from James Wiseman’s absences this season and we can expect a lot of minutes for Green tonight. He played 37.9 minutes against Memphis on Sunday and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on the floor for all of Anthony Davis’s minutes. Green has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in 13 games alongside Curry without Wiseman or Oubre this season.

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) doesn’t appear to be limited anymore and he offers immense upside at this price point. Jackson is always a risky option because he is more foul-prone than most players, but the Spurs don’t have a particularly imposing frontcourt so that makes me feel a little more confident in Jackson. He averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 26 minutes per game in four starts this season, but he played 31.4 minutes against Golden State in the season finale so I expect 30-plus minutes again tonight. He also picked up three first half fouls in that game, so it is possible we would have seen even more minutes had he not sat for most of the second quarter. In 1,223 minutes alongside Morant since the start of last season, Jackson has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute, and is lining up for 33.62 points tonight, according to Awesemo daily fantasy basketball projections.

Keldon Johnson ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 SF FanDuel) is always a scary player to roster but his salary is inexpensive tonight and there isn’t a ton of other value on this slate. Johnson has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute and 28.1 minutes per game in 40 games since the All-Star break. While it may feel like Johnson always lets us down, his average production suggests that he offers value at this price point. Be sure to pay attention to the Spurs’ starting lineup because Rudy Gay started the second half in Johnson’s place in the final game of the regular season. Whichever player starts will look like one of the best values on the slate and whichever comes off the bench can be used as a tournament pivot assuming that the starter will garner much more ownership.

Top DraftKings Picks: Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson

Top FanDuel Picks: Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson

Center

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) played 35.5 minutes in the Grizzlies’ season finale and he finished the season by playing at least 30 minutes in six of his last eight games. Valanciunas is an excellent fantasy producer, averaging 1.38 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he is now getting additional playing time as well. He stands out as a top option on DraftKings and he offers upside on FanDuel as well, though the elevated price tag adds some risk.

Jakob Poeltl ($4,900 DraftKings/6,300 FanDuel) averaged 29 minutes per game and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 48 starts without Aldridge this season. I expect Poeltl to play 30-plus minutes tonight as long as he avoids foul trouble against a big center in Valanciunas. Poeltl is reasonably priced on FanDuel and a clear top value on DraftKings.

Andre Drummond ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is risky since his playing time is inconsistent and we don’t know exactly how Frank Vogel’s center rotation will look. Drummond has a high ceiling at his price, however, because he has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in four games with James and Davis active since joining the Lakers. Drummond has averaged 25 minutes per game in those games, but we could see more minutes tonight as we don’t know exactly what Vogel’s playoff rotations will look like.

Kevon Looney ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) isn’t a great fantasy producer, but he is inexpensive and he played 31.2 minutes against Memphis on Sunday. Looney started 34 games in the regular season and 22 of those games were without Wiseman. In those 22 games, Looney averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute and 25.5 minutes per game. It is likely that we get a few more minutes from Looney tonight, though it is certainly possible that Juan Toscano-Anderson replaces him in the closing lineup.

Montrezl Harrell ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) could play zero minutes tonight or he could win someone a GPP. Obviously, that isn’t particularly useful analysis but the range of outcomes is that wide. Over the Lakers’ last five games, Harrell has played 0, 19, 26, 5 and 15 minutes. The Warriors have a small frontcourt, so it could be a matchup where Frank Vogel looks to Harrell. Harrell has produced 1 DraftKings point per minute in 26 games alongside James and Davis this season so, if he gets 22 to 24 minutes, he is likely to exceed his price tag. The problem is that a small opposing frontcourt doesn’t mean that Harrell has to play. The Lakers can very easily just use Drummond and Marc Gasol, or give Davis more minutes at the five. I think that the most likely outcome is that Harrell doesn’t get enough minutes to be a useful DFS option, but he is worth considering in larger field tournaments because he is currently projected for 1 percent ownership and it is very difficult to find low-owned players with enough volatility to help win a tournament on a two-game slate. Harrell gives us that, along with a floor of zero.

Top DraftKings Picks: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl

Top FanDuel Picks: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Kevon Looney


Be sure to catch the Awesemo Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy Show on our YouTube Channel and our DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets for more help making your fantasy basketball picks today.


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Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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