NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully after reading this article you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings & FanDuel Picks | Thursday April 1

NOTE: James Harden and Blake Griffin have both been ruled out tonight vs. Charlotte. LaMarcus Aldridge will make his Nets debut. Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball have both been ruled out tonight vs. Orlando, while Brandon Ingram is doubtful to play.

Point Guard

Kyrie Irving (DraftKings: $9,800; FanDuel: $10,000) shouldn’t have much in-house competition tonight with Harden expected to join Kevin Durant on the sidelines. Harden’s second-half exit in Wednesday’s win over the Rockets suggests there’s a good chance he will not in tonight’s second leg of a back-to-back against Charlotte. If Harden sits, Irving will be forced to shoulder an even bigger load on offense for Brooklyn. Across 223 minutes with both superstar teammates off the floor, Irving is averaging 1.61 DraftKings points per minute on 35.6 percent usage and 39.9 percent assists. If you also remove Caris LeVert from the equation, Irving sees those rates climb to 1.65, 37.3 and 45.1, respectively.

What more needs to be said? The matchup against Charlotte is mostly neutral, as the Hornets own a middle-of-the-league rank in both pace (100.12) and defensive rating (111.5), but none of that is important anyway. Irving is one of the league’s most elite talents, and he will likely have the offense all to himself on Thursday night. Even with Griffin in Brooklyn and Aldridge potentially making his debut, neither of those guys should eat into Irving’s usage enough to make a difference.

Russell Westbrook (DraftKings: $11,000; FanDuel: $11,300) has been truly spectacular of late, propelling the short-handed Wizards to wins in two of their last three games. He is averaging a triple-double on the season and an absolutely stupid 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over his last 10 games. Westbrook has also logged 38-plus minutes eight times over the aforementioned 10-game stretch, once again solidifying himself as one of the league’s preeminent fantasy producers.

Westbrook is still a strong high-end option if Bradley Beal is active, but if Beal sits, you know what to do. There is no doubt Westbrook and Irving will get jammed into the same lineups if their All-Star teammates are unable to take the floor. Across 514 minutes with Beal off the court this season, Westbrook is producing 1.60 DraftKings points per minute on 36.5 percent usage, 54.6 percent assists and 15 percent rebounding. With an insanely high floor and ceiling, so long as he keeps logging upwards of 40 minutes a night, Westbrook remains worth the premium salary despite the pace-down spot against Detroit.

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Eric Bledsoe (DraftKings: $5,100; FanDuel: $5,500) has been truly dreadful this season, but he merits attention tonight with Ball, Williamson and Ingram all expected to sit for the Pelicans. It’s really that simple; with all of New Orleans’ top three fantasy producers off the floor, Bledsoe will finally get an opportunity to operate with significantly higher usage, ball handling and possibly even rebounding prospects. He is cheap across the board, has played 36 minutes in back-to-back games and 33-plus minutes in each of his last four and draws a very appealing matchup against a Magic team that gutted their entire roster at the trade deadline. Kira Lewis (DraftKings: $3,700; FanDuel: $4,100) could also make for a fine punt in stars-and-scrubs lineups, which will likely be the preferred build in tournaments tonight given all the value that’s beginning to pop up.

Honorable Mention: Trae Young, Bruce Brown, Terry Rozier

Shooting Guard

Collin Sexton (DraftKings: $7,200; FanDuel: $7,500) is sporting a strong 31.7 percent usage rate over the last month. His 23.3 percent assist rate and 1.08 DraftKings points per minute aren’t bad either. While Philadelphia’s defense is still above average, the loss of Joel Embiid has hurt their ability to protect the rim and defend the paint. Sexton is averaging the 10th-most drives in basketball this season (16.7) and should look to take advantage of the 76ers’ weaker interior defense tonight. Philadelphia looked exhausted on Tuesday in a road loss to Denver, and now they’ll close out a six-game road trip in Cleveland. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Cavaliers easily cover the 10 points with Sexton leading the way on offense. We have seen him play upwards of 39 to 40 minutes in competitive games, and Cleveland won’t be able to keep this close without him.

Josh Hart (DraftKings: $5,700; FanDuel: $5,300) will be thrust into a much bigger role tonight with the Pelicans’ three best starters expected to sit. Hart is producing a respectable 0.88 DraftKings points per minute on the season, but he should improve that tonight against a dreadful Magic team. There isn’t much need to quote endless stats and rates when it comes to the Pelicans tonight; without Williamson, Ball and Ingram, Hart will need to do a lot more than usual whether he starts or plays an easy 30-plus minutes off the bench. Despite all of their inactives, the Pelicans are still four-point favorites at home, which means we could see a competitive game where Hart, Bledsoe and Nickeil Alexander-Walker all have big games.

Luke Kennard (DraftKings: $4,200; FanDuel: $4,700) should get another start tonight with Paul George already ruled out, which makes him one of the better value plays on the slate. He has only produced 0.81 DraftKings points per minute on the season but has played 32-plus minutes in back-to-back games and was in line to play 35 minutes on Tuesday before fouling out late in the fourth quarter. There’s nothing particularly exciting about Kennard, but he makes it possible to get multiple top-tier NBA DFS picks into our lineups tonight.

Honorable Mention: Bradley Beal, DeMar DeRozan

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Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard (DraftKings: $9,300; FanDuel: $9,600) is another high-end option who will benefit from the absence of one of his teammates. George has already been ruled out for tonight’s home tilt with Denver, leaving Leonard as the clear no. 1 option in the Clippers’ offense. With George off the floor this season Leonard is producing 1.39 DraftKings points per minute on 32 percent usage, 23.5 percent assists and 11.4 percent rebounds. It also won’t hurt that Serge Ibaka remains out and Lou Williams is back in Atlanta. The Clippers are only 1.5-point home dogs against the Nuggets, so this should be a competitive game throughout and should lead to 35-plus minutes from Leonard.

Marcus Morris (DraftKings: $5,300; FanDuel: $4,500) is a fine value option for the Clippers if he’s able to take the court, and Jimmy Butler (DraftKings: $9,000; FanDuel: $9,000) is a perfect alternative to Leonard if you need to save a few hundred dollars at the small forward position.

Gordon Hayward (DraftKings: $7,900; FanDuel: $7,000) should be considered a particularly appealing mid-range option on FanDuel, where he’s only $7,000. Hayward has produced 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 766 minutes with LaMelo Ball off the floor and faces a Nets team that ranks 26th in defensive rating and 12th in pace on the season. Hayward’s floor has left much to be desired, but he has played 39-plus minutes in three straight games and should continue to get huge run with the Hornets being mere two-point dogs on the road.

Bogdan Bogdanovic (DraftKings: $5,400; FanDuel: $4,200) is coming off arguably his best performance of the season, totaling 45.5 DraftKings points on 22 points, six assists, four rebounds and four steals across 37 minutes against the Suns. His minutes and production have been erratic, but John Collins’ absence could help a bit in terms of usage, and he’s only $4,200 on FanDuel to begin with. Nate McMillan appears to still be toying with his rotation, so do not be surprised to see Bogdanovic continue to earn big minutes now that he’s in the starting lineup.

Honorable Mention: Danilo Gallinari, Joe Harris

Power Forward

Tobias Harris (DraftKings: $8,700; FanDuel: $8,300) will draw a welcomed matchup against the Cavaliers tonight after facing a tough stretch of teams on this recent West Coast road trip. He’s a 28 percent usage player with Embiid off the floor this season while averaging a strong 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in the process. He is also rebounding at a strong enough 11.9 percent clip while dishing out assists at nearly 20 percent. The Cavaliers play at a slow pace, but they will be missing both of their starting frontcourt members tonight and will not be able to slow Harris down in the paint, where he’s been doing a lot of damage lately. This is an appealing matchup for Harris and could lead to one of his best performances since Embiid hit the shelf.

Jerami Grant (DraftKings: $7,200; FanDuel: $6,600) had not been playing particularly well of late but managed to turn up the head last night against a dreadful Trail Blazers defense. Fortunately, he will get another opportunity to keep the flame burning tonight against an equally bad Wizards team. Washington makes for a much better matchup than Portland because not only do they have a bottom-five defensive rating, but they also lead the league in pace by a wide margin.

Grant draws a massive pace-up spot tonight, and while he hasn’t played consistently great basketball in recent games, he is still the clear primary offensive option on the Pistons. With Griffin and Derrick Rose gone, Grant should continue to have no trouble maintaining his 28 percent usage rate going forward.

Honorable Mention: P.J. Washington, James Johnson, Dean Wade

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Center

Clint Capela (DraftKings: $7,700; FanDuel: $8,500) does not see a huge boost in overall production with Collins off the floor, but he should earn more playing time tonight as a result of Collins’ absence. Capela is averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute on the year, with a monster 26.3 percent rebounding rate, 6.3 percent block rate and 20.1 percent usage rate this season. He is too cheap on DraftKings at $7,700, especially assuming he plays upwards of 35 minutes like he did on Tuesday when Collins went down late in the first half. There is nothing imposing about San Antonio’s frontcourt defense either, as they are allowing the third-most rebounds to opponents this season and have had their shots blocked at the eighth-highest clip.

Isaiah Hartenstein (DraftKings: $3,700; FanDuel: $4,000) started and played 26 minutes in his Cavaliers debut, but it’s tough to say what his playing time will look like tonight. Larry Nance Jr. and Jarrett Allen both remain out, so Hartenstein will draw another start, but early foul trouble and a 39-point blowout loss to Utah on Thursday made it tough to gauge how J.B. Bickerstaff plans on running his rotation. Fortunately, Hartenstein is cheap enough across the board for his uncertainty in playing time not to matter all that much. It is also encouraging to see that he had 10 potential assists and a team-leading 20 rebound chances in his debut.

Hartenstein has not earned a ton of playing time at the NBA level, but he has averaged a career 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with strong enough rebounding and shot-blocking numbers to make him a great value option whenever he draws a start. While we cannot say for sure that he’s going to get another 26 minutes against Philadelphia, Hartenstein would need to be really bad in order to not pay off his near minimum salary price point. It is also entirely possible that he will see 30-plus minutes for a rebuilding Cavs team. Hartenstein is the NBA DFS pick on the slate so long as he continues to start.

Honorable Mention: Nikola Jokic, Mason Plumlee, Steven Adams

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Author

Dave Loughran

Dave "Loughy" Loughran has been a fixture in the daily fantasy community since not long after its inception, quitting his career as a Drug and Alcohol therapist to become a full-time DFS analyst, player and media personality in 2014. Loughy is the host of "Awesemo Radio" on SiriusXM Fantasy, qualified for the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship, and was featured in the Washington Post and other publications for his success as a player. You can find him on Twitter at @Loughy_D where he'll likely be ranting about the miserable life of a Philadelphia sports fan, using "fella" in almost every tweet, or via email at [email protected].