NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Expert Data, Analysis & Strategy

The nightcap of NBA DFS action on Sunday features another monster game seven, this time between the Hawks and 76ers. Both teams come into the concluding game of the tougher than expected series nursing injuries, including to their critical stars; the Sixers’ superstar center Joel Embiid will see his usually massive share of minutes while playing through pain from a partially torn knee ligament, while Trae Young has been dealing with an ailing shoulder. Adding to the Hawks’ injury woes we have the questionable status of Bogdan Bogdanovic, who missed the fourth quarter of Game Six, and whose absence would have a trickle-down effect on the Hawks’ rotation. The Sixers will be without three-and-d specialist Danny Green for another night. The game shapes up interestingly in the midrange, which should provide some variance for Showdown and Single-Game NBA DFS lineups and picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | June 20

Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young ($16,800 CPT; $11,200 UTIL DraftKings/$15,500 FanDuel) is one of the most likely players to provide NBA DFS gamers with a 50 fantasy point game. The Hawks point guard is dealing with a shoulder injury, but it has not slowed him through the playoffs. Young has averaged 1.31 fantasy points per minutes through all situations in the postseason, for the regular season he was at 1.28, so he has taken a minor step up when it counts. Young will do most of his work through point scoring, he is taking a 33.3% usage share in the playoffs and it would be within reason for him to approach 40.0% tonight, particularly if the Hawks are without Bogdanovic. Young will be a popular option on both sites and he is an expensive Captain play on DraftKings that will simply land lineups with a lot of the field, Young should be rostered in many lineups, but it makes sense to consider moving him around positionally on both sites.

Clint Capela ($13,500 CPT; $9,000 UTIL/$11,000 FanDuel) spent the year proving he belongs among the league’s preeminent centers. The pivot posted a solid 1.35 fantasy point per minute rate through the regular season, contributing a monster rebounding rate and a steady scoring average. Capela added 2.7 stocks per game to his scoring line in the regular season, though he has been at just 1.9 per game through the playoffs. Overall, Capela stands an excellent chance of posting a dominant rebounding performance in a huge spot against Embiid, any point scoring is a bonus, but we should be able to rely on two to three stocks at least. Capela should be rotated between positions on FanDuel and warrants multiplier consideration on the DraftKings slate.

John Collins ($12,300 CPT; $8,200 UTIL/$13,000 FanDuel)

Collins is the third highest priced player on the FanDuel Single Game slate, outpacing players who are arguably more talented from the opposition. The power forward has put up just 0.82 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs, down from 1.08 over the course of the regular season. He sees plenty of minutes, averaging 32.4 for the playoffs and he is carrying a full projection of 35 from Awesemo going into this contest, but he could end up over-exposed in public lineups for the overall fantasy point production and the price. Collins is absolutely in play, but making a specific decision around his ownership share as relates to the public at both UTIL and multiplier spots may prove critical tonight. Collins consumes just a 16.3% usage rate and provides counting stat upside with his 26.8% rebounding share and 30.8% block rate. There is upside, but it is highly situational.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($11,000 CPT; $7,400 UTIL DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is currently questionable for this contest and may not see the court at all. If he does not play, we can expect an uptick in minutes for wings from the Atlanta side, including players like Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari, who is relevant either way. If he plays, Bogdanovic is priced for production and upside on the DraftKings slate. He averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute for the season, consuming a 21.0% usage share and shooting 43.8% from three. Bogdanovic has been somewhat reduced in the playoffs, coming in at just a 0.79 per-minute rate, though the upside for more is clear given a clean bill of health. With news still pending, this is an important inflection point for the slate and potentially the fate of the NBA Championship.

Kevin Huerter ($9,900 CPT; $6,600 UTIL DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) should see his full complement of minutes, in the 34-36 range, regardless of the status of Bogdanovic. Huerter averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute through the season and is at 0.75 so far in the postseason. The guard had a 54.1% true shooting percentage and made 36.7% of his three point attempts for the season. He has contributed just a 15.7% rebounding rate and 17.5% assist rate through the postseason so far, but has upside for the minutes and probability of at least mid-range production. On a good night, Huerter can be a slate breaker in this format.

Danilo Gallinari ($8,700 CPT; $5,800 UTIL DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) played most of the fourth quarter after Bogdanovic exited the most recent game. He could be in line for more than 30 minutes in the right situation, if Bogdanovic is forced to sit. Regardless, Gallinari will be on the court for at least his regular rotation term, which is providing enough of a median projection and path to upside that it makes him worthwhile on both sites. Given additional time, this is absolutely a player who can get the hot shooting hand for a night and put up an interesting score, particularly as a multiplier play. Gallinari averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute for the regular season and 0.79 so far this postseason, In 396 minutes without Bogdanovic since the trade deadline, in all situations, Gallinari has been at 0.95 fantasy points per minute.

Lou Williams ($5,100 CPT; $3,400 UTIL DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is the final Hawks player projected for relevant minutes, though at just 13.8 minutes, Williams is barely clinging to that title. The guard has put up a steady 0.91 fantasy points per minute in limited playoff action, seeing just 10.3 minutes per game. Barring significant news, Williams is primarily a mix and match value play. If he sees something in the range of 20 minutes he could become more slate-relevant in a hurry.

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Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid ($18,000 CPT; $12,000 UTIL DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) is a medical marvel, playing 38 and 39 minutes his last two games on a partially torn knee ligament. Embiid has produced major upside for his team throughout the playoffs and is a terrific source of NBA DFS points on any slate. The big man averages 1.57 fantasy points per minute for the playoffs, essentially the same as his go-to 1.59 from the regular season. Embiid gets his production in every way, he consumes a team-leading 34.8% usage rate in the playoffs and adds a 36.5% rebounding share and 18.4% assist rate. Embiid has added 2.5 stocks per game through the playoffs. The only risk in the expensive play is if one worries about potential blowout narrative, in which case Embiid would likely sit quickly. With the series on the line, there is plenty of reason to expect a tight contest and plenty of Embiid minutes.

Ben Simmons ($14,400 CPT; $9,600 UTIL DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) is projected for 34 minutes and a significant share of fantasy points tonight. In main slates, he is underpriced across the industry for his overall quality, despite any struggles with his shot and free throw attempts. In this format, the pricing is more realistic but likely will create some ownership opportunity. While it is less fun to roster a player who lacks confidence in his offensive prowess, Simmons can provide reliable NBA DFS production. For the postseason as a whole, Simmons has outproduced his regular season, putting up 1.17 fantasy points per minute compared to a 1.14 average through the year. Simmons could be in danger of losing some minutes to more reliable free throw shooters down the stretch if the game remains tight, but he is easily capable of paying off his price tag with counting stats before that point, and he has upside for more.

Tobias Harris ($14,700 CPT; $9,800 UTIL DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) also slots in at more appropriate Showdown and Single Game pricing than it seemed like he was drawing in the two game slate. Harris stands to be Philadelphia’s secondary scoring option and he has upside for additional production in counting stats. For the postseason, the power forward has a 1.09 fantasy point per minute rate, down slightly from the 1.12 that he put up through the season. Harris is projected for nearly 40 minutes of action tonight, giving him significant upside at those rates. Harris should be a strong consideration if popularity of other players or the public player-for-price perception problems warp his ownership around multiplier spots.

Seth Curry ($10,500 CPT; $7,000 UTIL DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) costs more than Ben Simmons on the FanDuel slate. the Philadelphia scorer is a deadeye three point shooter. Curry had a 60.7% true shooting percentage and made 45.0% of his three point attempts. Curry has major upside if he hits a heater and he has been outproducing his season-long rate during the postseason. Curry has constructed a 0.86 fantasy point per minute average over the playoffs, up from just 0.73 through the regular season. The public will likely be on Curry to a degree, but the ownership could slip for his general upside if the public gets hung up on the cost and star factors.

Furkan Korkmaz ($7,200 CPT; $4,800 UTIL DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) could shed minutes depending on how well he is playing, but he is the final Sixers player pulling in more than a 20-minute projection from Awesemo. Korkmaz averages just 0.79 fantasy points per minute through the playoffs to date, though he put up 0.84 through the course of this full season. Korkmaz is a relatively low usage player, needing just 17.8% of the team’s offensive shares to get his work done in the playoffs, though the production is clearly down. Korkmaz posted 1.1 stocks per game with his defense and shot 37.5% from three for the season, with enough minutes he is playable for an outlier upside performance with a hot hand and a few counting stats giving a boost.

Be sure to check out today’s special Live Before Lock dedicated to this Game 7:

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.