Thursday night is a massive Game 3 for the Clippers, as going down 3-0 to the Suns would surely be a death sentence in these Western Conference Finals. With the anticipation of Chris Paul’s return and its impact on this game, there is a lot to discuss on this edition of the NBA DFS Deep Dive. So with that, let’s get into some of the best DFS NBA picks today with the help of Awesemo’s expert daily fantasy basketball projections, ownership rankings and lineup optimizer.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel | June 24
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Studs
Paul George ($11,200 DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel) inexplicably received an $800 decrease for Game 3 in a game he still worked out to be optimal, perhaps because of a subpar game where he put up only 41.5 DraftKings points. This should make him the most popular play in the Captain spot over there by a wide margin, and it’s hard to argue against. He had 36% usage in Games 1 and 2 and no other meaningful piece for the Clippers to cut into his shot volume, so just play George all over the place and move on.
Devin Booker ($10,800 DraftKings/$14,500 FanDuel) was the Sun that burned everybody on Tuesday night. He will still be the second-highest projected player in this game on DraftKings, but the return of Paul dings him enough to at least consider the fade. Still, the Game 2 dud was an outlier, so don’t overthink it by trying to move a bunch of exposure off Booker. On FanDuel specifically, he makes sense as the MVP pivot off George.
Chris Paul ($9,400 DraftKings/$14,500 FanDuel) is the gigantic question mark on this entire slate. After sitting out Games 1 and 2 due to health and safety protocols, Paul will make his return tonight. Will the Suns change up what worked for them to go up 2-0 — that is, take the ball out of Booker’s and Cam Payne’s hands — and go back to Paul running the show? And if the Suns do indeed go back to the pick-and-roll offense with Paul that worked so effectively in the Lakers and Nuggets series, how do the Clippers combat that on the defensive end? The question marks here won’t affect his ownership on DraftKings due to the $1,400 savings down from Booker; he makes a tremendous option for that fact alone.
Deandre Ayton ($9,000 DraftKings/$13,000 FanDuel) has been a standout in this postseason for the Suns. With an average of 36 minutes per game this series, there is room for those minutes to go up pending the Clippers rotation. And compared to Booker, he’s far less affected by Paul’s return. In fact, his production goes up slightly, going from 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with Paul off the floor during the regular season to 1.05 with him on it. The $1,500 savings allow for a lot more in the mid-range on FanDuel, making Ayton a priority over there.
Favorite Studs on DraftKings: Paul George, Chris Paul
Favorite Studs on FanDuel: Paul George, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
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Reggie Jackson ($7,800 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel) was a fantastic contrarian Captain option in the first two games even though it didn’t pan out. With 39 minutes in each game of this series so far, an average of 17 shot attempts per game and no signs of the production from previous series slowing down, he’ll be the de facto Clippers number two option offensively tonight. His DraftKings price is a poor reflection of his increased opportunity, but on FanDuel his hefty tag makes you at least weigh the opportunity cost of prioritizing him in lineups. Still, he’s got a ceiling, so finding ways for him to sneak into the Star and Pro slots makes a lot of sense so long as the ownership isn’t there.
Cameron Payne ($7,600 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel) will need one heck of an outlier game in Game 3 in order to make his way into the optimal at these salaries. The hero of Game 2 has an incredible amount of minutes uncertainty with Chris Paul’s return; If you opt to roster him, it’s almost a given you shouldn’t have Paul on that team in hopes that he’s limited in some capacity.
Mikal Bridges ($7,400 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) and Jae Crowder ($5,800 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) were two obvious plays to short in Games 1 and 2 sans Chris Paul. Both rely on others to create three-point shot attempts for them, and it was hard to envision either paying off their salaries compared to a Clippers team forcing other role players into prominent roles in Kawhi Leonard’s absence. That came to fruition, and hopefully you benefited. Tonight is a different story, as their prices have dipped to reflect a world without Chris Paul. With Paul’s playmaking back in the mix, both make exponentially better plays than before, as they’ll see more looks than they otherwise would in a Devin Booker and Cameron Payne-led offense.
Nicolas Batum ($6,800 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) and Marcus Morris ($6,200 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) have been casualties of big minutes in previous series. Morris has been limited most likely due to his knee issue, while Batum went from 37 minutes in Game 1’s start to a measly 16 minutes as a bench player in Game 2. While Morris is tough to consider with his ineffectiveness due to this injury, Batum is at least contrarian enough (see: unowned enough) to warrant consideration on DraftKings.
Ivica Zubac ($5,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) was perhaps the most under-owned play in Game 2 with the late news that he was starting. He proceeded to play 34 minutes, which for a 0.95 fantasy point per minute player on the season made him an automatic smash. No such ownership drop will be there tonight, but he still makes a phenomenal option so long as he’s starting. One caveat: if the ownership reaches 40-plus percent, there’s viability to hitting eject. Chris Paul will surely try to put him into every pick-and-roll possible when they’re both on the court, which could force the Clippers to go small by default.
Terance Mann ($5,000 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has too high of a price tag, and that’s knowing full well the 50-fantasy point explosion he pulled off in Game 6 versus the Jazz. If you want to point to that as a reason to roster him, go ahead. But at this mid-range, there’s no way to prioritize him coming off the bench, especially at the ridiculous $11,000 price point on FanDuel.
Favorite Mid-Range Plays on DraftKings: Reggie Jackson, Jae Crowder, Ivica Zubac
Favorite Mid-Range Plays on FanDuel: Reggie Jackson, Mikal Bridges, Ivica Zubac
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Cameron Johnson ($4,400 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) requires a look, as he’ll get less ownership than everyone else in this section with the exception of E’Twaun Moore. He played 24 minutes in the first two games of this series and could surely see those level out to the high teens with Chris Paul back. However, he’s a capable three-and-D player who can spike a scoring upside. Rostering him is basically shorting most-or all of the other punts in this game, but at ownership currently under 12% on DraftKings, he’s my favorite tournament play of the section.
Patrick Beverley ($3,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) wasn’t a “surprise” addition to the Clippers starting rotation, but considering Mann’s effectiveness in the postseason, it was a questionable move. He’s never the most intriguing fantasy option, averaging 0.79 DraftKings points per minute on the season. But if he gets the start once again, the 26 minutes he received in Game 2 is a likely outcome for Game 3 as well. If you want to play George, Paul and Booker together without dropping down to the dead $1,000 range, Captaining Beverley is the route to do it.
Rajon Rondo ($2,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is always owned due to name recognition. He’s currently projected for the most ownership under $3,000 on DraftKings, which is probably justified due to his 22 and 17 minutes in Games 1 and 2, respectively. But his minutes can be far more volatile than this series has shown (just look at the Jazz series), so if his ownership gets out of control, shorting Rondo makes the most sense.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”06/24/2021″ team=”clippers”]
Dario Saric ($2,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) and Demarcus Cousins ($1,600 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) are both intriguing tournament darts, as even 10 minutes of either can yield results. Being sensitive to their ownership is crucial, as Saric will garner attention due to Game 2’s 18 fantasy point result/more guaranteed run, while Cousins has the name recognition/incredible 1.3 DraftKings point per minute rate. Side with more of the lower-owned of the two (assumed to be Cousins).
Luke Kennard ($2,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) would have been a phenomenal Showdown play in Game 2 had Payne not had the other-worldly performance that he did. His offensive acumen could be required more than the public thinks, although the ownership is now more reflective of the 19 minutes he played in Game 2.
E’Twaun Moore ($1,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) is getting into this section purely in the event he’s under 5% owned on DraftKings come lock time. Chris Paul’s return should surely drop his minutes projection down to around zero, as he played a total of 17 minutes in the playoffs before Paul’s absences. But his defensive stints on Paul George were decent enough in his 11 minutes of run that he could show up randomly for a few minutes near the end of the first or third quarters. And from his random stints around the league, most notably the Pelicans for the previous four seasons before this one, he’s shown a propensity to chuck from deep. Due to his DraftKings price, he’ll be in the pool.
Favorite Punts on DraftKings: Cameron Johnson, Patrick Beverley, Rajon Rondo
Favorite Punts on FanDuel: Cameron Johnson, Rajon Rondo
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