NBA DFS Picks: FREE 1/17 Cash Building Blocks: LaMarcus Aldridge, Value Plays and MORE

Friday, Jan. 17 leads us into the weekend with a seven-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Shabazz Napier and more.

Follow our Twitter account for loads of FREE giveaways.


Don’t forget to check out the NBA Strategy Show featuring Dave “Loughy” Loughran and Ben “Jazzraz” Rasa as they break down the NBA DFS slate and give out their thoughts on injury news and other NBA DFS analysis.

Also, be sure to read Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.


NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players

LaMarcus Aldridge: San Antonio Spurs vs. Atlanta Hawks

DraftKings $7,100, FanDuel $6,800, Yahoo $26 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 29.2%, FanDuel 59.8% Yahoo Fantasy 54.8%

Yes, Luka Doncic is our goal and I recently wrote about him on Wednesday, which you can see here. In the mean time, let’s look at who we should be playing in order to get Doncic into our lineups.

What we have here is a change in the recent run of opponents for the Spurs. Five of their last six games have been on the road and San Antonio has been much improved recently. In November, they were 4-12. However, in their last 19 games, they are 10-9. In an interesting twist, both the Hawks and the Spurs have a similar 110-ish points allowed per 100 possessions defensive efficiency over their last 15 games. During this span, Atlanta is playing at a league-high 104.6 possessions per 48 minutes and San Antonio is not that far behind at 101.3.

Over the last six games, LaMarcus Aldridge has not topped 40 fantasy points, but looking at the mix of opponents — at Miami, at Toronto, at Memphis, at Boston and a home-and-home with Milwaukee — it should not be a surprise. This is the type of matchup where a 20 and 10 performance is very much in play and we are getting a bargain.

NBA DFS Picks: Good Value

Shabazz Napier: Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers

DraftKings $5,500, FanDuel $5,000, Yahoo $13 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 16.1%, FanDuel 10.9% Yahoo Fantasy 12.6%

While Shabazz Napier is not going to knock our socks off, he is a solid core building block. Jeff Teague has been dealt to Atlanta, so that should secure around 30-32 minutes in the rotation for the former Trail Blazer. If Karl-Anthony Towns misses yet another game, Napier should see around 25% usage. If Towns returns, that will be closer to 20% when they share the court. Today, I am comfortable with about 1.0 fantasy point per minute for Napier, so the real question is how many minutes do you think he will receive?

Yahoo Fantasy Discount Dandies

Cedi Osman vs. MEM – $11

Dorian Finney-Smith vs. POR $11

Matisse Thybulle vs. CHI – $10 (if starting)

Luke Kornet at PHI – $10 (if starting)

Isaiah Thomas vs. TOR – $10

NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value

Dejounte Murray: San Antonio Spurs vs. Atlanta Hawks

DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $5,100, Yahoo $13 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 23.1%, FanDuel 38.0% Yahoo Fantasy 24.8%

In poking around various projection sites, I still am not certain why Dejounte Murray is lining up to be one of the five most-rostered players across the board. He does not have a minutes limit, however, in the 13 games since he last topped 30 minutes, he is averaging only 26.0 minutes per game. During this stretch, Murray is averaging 10.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.7 combined blocks/steals for 26.5 fantasy points. Yes, he could have an incredibly efficient game with a couple of steals and reach the 40-fantasy-point plateau, but I would prefer to let other gamers take on that risky upside in tournaments if this current popularity holds. For your head-to-head contests, Murray is fine for the block as it is a good matchup.

The main problem is that we know coach Gregg Popovich is not afraid to ride the hot hand with Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes and Derrick White all competing for the extra minutes. And if that isn’t enough, Lonnie Walker IV is lurking in the weeds. Plus, if you are narrative driven, this is a “remember me” spot for Marco Belinelli who had half a season with Atlanta.

FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day

Use promo code PRIMETIME to receive 50% off any one-week premium subscription (including FantasyCruncher options).

With the incredibly user-friendly FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.

Today, we will look at how to use the random feature and how it impacts projections. By going into Advanced Options > General Settings, we can set a global Randomness that will be applied to all players. In this case we will use 15%. This means that for each individual lineup that is produced by FantasyCruncher, each player will have their baseline projection randomized within a +/- 15% range.

So if our player had a projection of 20 points, FantasyCruncher would assign a range projection of 17-23 points. Again, this will occur with each different lineup that is created and with each player.

For those of you with FC Pro, you have a second option. The Normal Dist Randomness calculation will actually follow a standard deviation bell curve approach. This keeps the variations in a more realistic set of parameters. This can also be set by each play via the data upload process.

Final Thoughts

This looks to be a fun slate with a little something for everyone. Be sure to tune in to the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock shows on YouTube,  Twitch and Periscope beginning at 5 p.m. EST tonight for all of the up-to-date information.

As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.

Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac


If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).

 

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

NBA DFS Projections

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

NBA DFS Ownership: Night Slate

NBA DFS Ownership – Express Slates

Yahoo! NBA Ownership

FanDuel NBA DFS Ownership

NBA DFS Ownership – Main Slate

NBA Data Central

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.