Friday, Dec. 6 presents an interesting 10-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Jimmy Butler, Ish Smith and more.
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Don’t forget to check out the NBA DFS Strategy Show featuring Dave “Loughy” Loughran and Ben “Jazzraz” Rasa as they break down the NBA DFS slate and give out their thoughts on Bradley Beal, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jokic, injury news and analysis.
Also, check out Chris Spags’ Switch and Hedge for more NBA DFS picks.
NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Jimmy Butler: Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards
DraftKings $8,100, FanDuel $9,100, Yahoo $38 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 30.1%, FanDuel 35.2% Yahoo Fantasy 45.6%
This is a phenomenal matchup for Jimmy Butler as we know that Goran Dragic (groin) is out and Justise Winslow (back) is questionable. With Dragic off the court, we see Butler improve his assist percentage from 25.7 to 32.5 and rebound percentage from 7.2 to 9.8 even with his usage being similar. In the last three games where he has been healthy, Butler is averaging 17 attempts, 37.9 minutes, 26.3 points, 3.0 made three-pointers, 8.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.6 combined blocks/steals (one game went to overtime which gave an extra five minutes and 12 fantasy points).
Our only concern is that this is a back-to-back game for the Wizards who pulled off an upset of the 76ers last night in Washington. Miami is double-digit favorites tonight and they are currently undefeated at home. The Boston Celtics are the only other team who has not dropped a game on their home floor.
While Butler is going to be wildly popular across the board on Friday, there are plenty of other ways we can differentiate our lineups on this 10-game slate.
Both teams are dealing with a fair number of injuries so we can also give consideration to Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, Moritz Wagner and of course Ish Smith if Isaiah Thomas misses a second game. From the Miami side, look to Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo. If Justise Winslow (back) is out then Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn move into play.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Larry Nance Jr: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
DraftKings $5,100, FanDuel $6,600, Yahoo $20 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 1.0%, FanDuel 1.0% Yahoo Fantasy 1.0%
For now, Larry Nance Jr is off the radar, but if Kevin Love (illness) misses tonight’s game, he will be on everyone’s short list. He is currently best employed on DraftKings and FantasyDraft along with Yahoo, albeit to a lesser extent. He has been getting time in the fourth quarter, as it seems that at least two of Tristan Thompson, Love and Nance are closing out games. Not that the games have had much meaning since the Cavs have lost 10 of their last 11 contests.
Over his last seven outings, Nance is averaging 28.5 minutes with 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.6 combined blocks/steals for 30-ish fantasy points. One major development is that he is also making 1.6 three-pointers during this stretch on 13-of-30 shooting for 43.3%, which is a new wrinkle considering he had 156 three-point attempts coming into this season.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Moritz Wagner: Washington Wizards at Miami Heats
DraftKings $5,000, FanDuel $5,400, Yahoo $10 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 28.3%, FanDuel 21.2% Yahoo Fantasy 54.4%
We want to keep in mind that at some point players do become too popular for their range of outcomes. If these levels hold for Moritz Wagner tonight, we may want to consider alternative options. For the season, the 22-year old German is averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute, which is excellent.
The injury to Thomas Bryant has vacated a lot of frontcourt responsibility and Wagner is the first choice to fill that void. Unfortunately, he leads the league among players with at least 200 minutes, averaging 7.1 fouls per 36 minutes. Last night, he played 26.0 minutes and ended up with four fouls and 22.3 fantasy points. He has played more than 26 minutes in a game only once this season. It is just something to think about.
FantasyCruncher Tip of the Day
Use promo code PRIMETIME to receive 50% off any one-month premium subscription (including FantasyCruncher options).
With the incredibly user-friendly and flexible rules creation feature on FantasyCruncher, we can take our lineup construction to the next level.
Today, we will look at how to use the “random” feature and how it impacts projections. By going into the “Advanced Options > General Settings” we can set a global Randomness that will be applied to all players. In this case we will use 15%. This means that for each individual lineup that is produced by FantasyCruncher, each player will have their baseline projection randomized within a +/- 15% range.
So if our player had a projection of 20 points, FantasyCruncher would assign a range projection of 17-23 points. Again, this will occur with each different lineup that is created and with each player.
For those of you with FC Pro, you have a second option. The “Normal Dist Randomness” calculation will actually follow a standard deviation bell curve approach. This keeps the variations in a more realistic set of parameters. This can also be set by each play via the data upload process.
There are 20 teams in action so we should have some breaking news that shake things up. Currently we are waiting on information for Kevin Love, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony Towns, Justise Winslow, Isaiah Thomas, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley and JaMychal Green. Then there always could be surprises.
Be sure to tune into Live Before Lock tonight at 6 p.m. EST featuring Fast Eddie Fear and Chris Spags.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
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