NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

Thanks to a short four-game NBA DFS slate and a quick turnaround from football coverage to basketball before the evening shows later, we’re going to get a bit of an accelerated version of this article today. The four-game slate has a number of questions yet to be answered about who will be on and off the floor for several teams, which makes parsing some of the data challenging for tonight’s slate. We should see significant opportunities for individual upside for stars and scrubs alike in both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests, it’s just a matter of from which corner those values emerge. With a lot of news still incoming from Miami, Charlotte, Memphis and more, there are a ton of moving parts among just eight teams. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate and leverage score, as well as the boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember, not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, we will also be discussing “bad chalk” and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Trae Young

DraftKings – $8,900 – PG / FanDuel – $8,800 – PG

Atlanta’s star point guard has been mired in something of a slump for the last two weeks. Over the team’s past five games, Young is averaging just 16.6 real life points on 32.5% shooting and, wildly, just 17.4% from beyond the three point arc. This is a trend that will not continue, we have too much case history built up with Young to think that what we’ve seen was illusory. The point guard should return to his expected production of around last year’s 1.35 fantasy points per minute, I want to be ahead of the field when it happens.

With the reduced production comes a reduced price, Young checks in below the $9,000 mark on both sites tonight, but still does not appear to be drawing the appropriate amount of popularity. On FanDuel, he ranks fifth overall on the slate by optimal lineup appearance rate, second at the point guard spot, and carries a strong 4.1 leverage score. For a player with a high raw point projection and a 25.4% probability of putting up a boom score, I want to get well above the field unless things swing significantly.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Young looks very good. He carries a 23.5% optimal lineup appearance rate alongside his 20.7% probability of a boom score. Young is slightly more owned, given the positional flexibility of the site, but for the price and the significant upside, a leverage score of just -1.8 probably isn’t enough. I think we can get well above ownership that is still projected below 25% on a four-game slate.

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Dwight Howard – Philadelphia 76ers

DraftKings – $4,300 – C / FanDuel – $4,400 – C

Dwight Howard will be the primary big man on the court for the short-handed 76ers tonight. The team has been reeling lately, dealing with COVID-19 protocols as well as various ailments. Starting center Joel Embiid is expected to miss several games nursing a knee injury, and backup big man Mike Scott is also sidelined. This leaves Howard with a boatload of minutes to consume.

With just a 25-minute projection, Howard leads the DraftKings slate by a wide margin, appearing in the optimal lineup in a full 10 percentage points more than the next-closest player, at 43.0%. Howard looks like a mandatory building block on that site tonight, yet is somehow under-owned and producing a whopping 8.0 leverage score that we typically do not see on a value piece like this.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Howard slots in at the singular center spot, lowering his optimal lineup appearance rate by nearly half, at 26.2%. Still, Howard carries a raw fantasy point projection in excess of 30, and has a 53.7% boom score probability. The 4.5 leverage score indicates that Howard is going undervalued on the blue site tonight as well, I’m happy to push well above his projected 21.7% public ownership on a player who reliably produces 1.1 FanDuel points per minute or better when he has a specific role.

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Enes Kanter – Portland Trailblazers

DraftKings – $5,600 – C / FanDuel – $5,200 – C

Following the devastating injury to Jusuf Nurkic, backup center Enes Kanter should take on a significant role with the Traiblazers until they can figure out a trade for Andre Drummond or another movable large contract big man. Kanter has been a productive player for NBA DFS purposes at times in his career, he averaged 1.22 fantasy points per minute last season and is carrying a 1.26 point per minute average in limited action so far this year. With his price not taking a significant jump with the changing role, Kanter looks interesting on both sites.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Kanter slots in just beneath Howard with a 48.9% boom score probability. He pulls better leverage at the higher price, coming in a 5.8 while appearing in 26.5% of optimal lineups. Howard and Kanter will be owned at very similar rates, as will Atlanta center Clint Capela, concentrating positional focus on those three names. Of the three, Kanter might be my preference simply on the leverage score. If I’m looking to get away from this group, I would give Jonas Valanciunas consideration as a pay-up.

In DraftKings NBA contests, the difference between the Howard and Kanter plays is far more stark. Kanter is drawing just a 24.6% optimal lineup appearance rate and a 30.0% boom score probability. Both are excellent marks, but do not look as strong alongside Howard. The ability to pair both players in DraftKings lineups for less than $10,000 total investment should not be ignored.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.