NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

The Sunday nightcap for NBA DFS has another solid four-game slate lined up for us. With a ton of football action going on throughout the day, sharp NBA minds can gain an advantage in a field like this. There look to be a number of quality value options and star level players available on the board again tonight, so optimal construction paths will be critical once again. Awesemo’s boom/bust tool is the best dashboard for getting a quick feel for the shape of a slate, and it is one of the best tools for peeling back the layers of FanDuel NBA and DraftKings NBA contests. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate and leverage score, as well as the boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Dwight Howard – Philadelphia 76ers

DraftKings – $4,800 – C / FanDuel – $4,400 – C

Everything that was relevant about the Howard spot yesterday remains the case for today’s game, so we won’t spend too much time here. The big man is carrying the slate’s second-highest optimal-lineup rate on FanDuel and is tops by quite a wide margin in DraftKings NBA contests. Howard’s salary increased for the role on DraftKings, but this hardly impacts the numbers. FanDuel left him at the same price because FanDuel does FanDuel things with shocking consistency. Howard is carrying a 34.3 DraftKings points projection with a 51.3% probability of posting a boom score. This is a lock-and-load play again on today’s slate on both sites, and he is not getting nearly the attention he warrants. The leverage scores are 21.5 on FanDuel and 16.3 in DraftKings NBA contests.

Ben Simmons – Philadelphia 76ers

DraftKings – $8,300 – PG/SF / FanDuel – $8,600 – PG

Howard’s teammate leads the FanDuel slate in optimal-lineup rate on FanDuel and should be in a fantastic position to deliver on his price. Simmons should be in another all-you-can-eat situation, with various members of the Sixers roster still absent. This season he is averaging 1.17 FanDuel points per minute, and we have him slated for a 35-=minute night with a 39.8% probability of a boom score on the blue site. The 53.7% optimal-lineup rate is outpacing his ownership significantly, and Simmons also carries a 10.8 leverage score that is second on the site. Simmons will lead the team in usage, likely outpacing his team-leading assist rate as the primary ball handler and main offensive weapon.

On DraftKings Simmons’ 37.5% optimal-lineup rate ranks second overall — behind only Howard, but behind him by nearly 20 percentage points — and tops among point guards and forwards. Simmons has a strong raw projection and is an excellent play despite the slightly higher price from site to site. He should see plenty of opportunity to hit a ceiling score for us as well given his 23.0% boom score probability and 45.8 raw DraftKings projection. Simmons will be popular, but there is room for more. This is a player I would look to get well ahead of the field with on both sites.

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Isaiah Roby – Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings – $4,200 – C/PF / FanDuel – $4,200 – PF

With starting center Al Horford sidelined, Roby will be thrust into a more prominent role for the Thunder tonight. Awesemo currently has him projected for a 28-minute night, which would be his season and career high. Roby has posted several good games this season and has shown himself to be a capable rebounder and scorer when he gets more than 20 minutes. The projected run has Roby looking like a quality value play on both sites tonight considering his seasonal 0.89 fantasy points per minute in less focused opportunity.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Roby ranks third overall on the site by optimal-lineup rate. His raw point projection is less than that of players around him at that altitude, but so is his salary, which is why he is such a strong value. He carries a 27.1% boom score for the price and looks like a strong building block for GPP lineups at 6.4 leverage.

On FanDuel Roby ranks just 12th overall by optimal-lineup appearances but third among power forward options. As the least expensive of these top power forwards by $3,500, Roby is very much in play. His 33.2% boom score probability and 5.0 leverage score are indicators that the public is still sleeping on something of an anonymous player, making this a spot to pounce on tonight.

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Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets

DraftKings – $11,200 – C / FanDuel – $11,500 – C

Jokic is very expensive on both sites tonight. If you can make the salary work with the various value pieces available, he is well worth the money. Jokic is having a monster season, increasing his fantasy points per minute from 1.39 last season to 1.61 this year. With a 34-minute projection in a great spot, Jokic looks ready to smash for us.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Jokic is carrying a 23.3% optimal-lineup rate, second among centers. His 19.2% boom score probability is still very strong considering the heavy salary, and he is not getting owned enough, with a leverage score just on the positive side at 1.0. The primary issue with the Jokic play is FanDuel’s positional configuration. With the singular center, opting for Jokic is a major inflection point because it moves you away from the Howard value play and into entirely different lanes of lineup construction. The decision between the two centers is likely to decide the slate tonight on the blue site.

In DraftKings NBA contests, we can play both centers together, and I would consider it with their significant value. Jokic ranks 13th overall on the site and fourth among centers by optimal-lineup rate. His 15.9% boom score probability and 3.3 leverage score keep him firmly in play despite the heavy price. Jokic is my favorite pay-up option on FanDuel tonight, though he probably lands second behind Domantas Sabonis on DraftKings.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.