NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

Last night’s little three-game NBA DFS affair was a fun time, but this loaded 10-game whopper that we have tonight has it beat from every angle. With an absurd amount of upside and value on the board, we are going to see a monster score take down GPPs in both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. Both sites are offering extreme discounts on some excellent plays, and we have plenty of stars to whom we can allocate those savings. There is a lot to keep on top of, and we’re off to another late start after another afternoon of hockey, so let’s jump right in. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

[SportsbookAffiliates]

[CONOR]

NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Demarcus Cousins – Houston Rockets

DraftKings – $4,400 – C / FanDuel – $4,500 – C

The obvious starting point for today’s NBA DFS discussion is the Rockets big man. With Christian Wood slated to miss this game with a sprained ankle, we’re expecting the fantasy-points-per-minute monster to get some additional run. With his extremely low price on both sites, getting to Cousins’ 1.36 fantasy points per minute on a 24-minute projection seems like a no-brainer.

On FanDuel the Rockets center is the top option by optimal-lineup rate with a slate-leading 50.8%. The next-highest center by that metric on the singular-center site is Andre Drummond, who appears in the optimal in 7.8% of simulations. Cousins excels in the boom score probability department as well, holding a 76.5% chance of posting a ceiling score, one of the highest marks in recent memory. All of this, naturally, has the attention of the public firmly on Cousins, he is drawing a gargantuan 77.3% ownership share on the blue site, -26.5 leverage. There are other quality options at the position; if you wanted to under-cut the field by 25% and roster Cousins in only half of your lineups, I can’t blame you. I think the play is the full lock, however. The value and upside are just too strong.

On DraftKings Cousins costs $100 less. He appears in the optimal lineup 61.1% of the time and carries a 73.4% boom score probability. By optimal-lineup rate, the next-highest center eligible player on the site is Marvin Bagley at 16.2%; by boom score probability it is Nikola Vucevic at 24.1%. With the ability to play multiple centers and pivot Cousins to the flex spot at a ridiculously low cost, he seems like a clear lock despite the 83.9% ownership share and -22.8 leverage score.

Since it has been a discussion point in our premium Slack channel, no, I have no concerns about Cousins’ temper or conditioning. He is fully capable of giving us the 24 minutes we’re looking for, with upside for a bit more. While he is notorious for incurring technical fouls (136 in 575 career games) and stands No. 2 on the all-time ejections list (15 behind only Rasheed Wallace at 29), these are entirely unquantifiable factors that I never let influence what the projectable numbers say.

Latest NBA DFS Content

LaMelo Ball – Charlotte Hornets

DraftKings – $7,800 – PG / FanDuel – $7,200 – PG

Now that we have some money to spend from the Cousins savings, we need to look for some places to get away from the field or our lineups just choke on the chalk. One of the slate leaders in optimal-lineup rate in FanDuel NBA contests, Ball appears to be a candidate for that role.

On the blue site the point guard has a still-reasonable price tag despite his emergence as the clear Rookie of the Year. Ball comes in with an 18.5% optimal-lineup rate, good for fifth overall on the site, but third at the point guard spot behind the more popular options from Dallas. This is giving Ball some room on the leverage front, where he comes in with a healthy 7.6 to go along with his 31.7% boom score probability. I like getting to a lot of Ball shares to offset some of the commonality of my Cousins lineups. While that won’t be enough to differentiate fully in large-field GPPs, it’s a nice start.

On DraftKings, unfortunately, Ball is less appealing but still in play. He carries just a 7.5% optimal-lineup rate, which lands him 31st overall and 14th among guard eligible players on the site. There is nothing wrong with his 14.3% boom score probability, and he gives a 4.5 leverage score cushion, but there appear to be better options on the site. Ball is an average mix-in play for DraftKings NBA contests at these rates.

Alec Burks – New York Knicks

DraftKings – $5,100 – SG/ FanDuel – $5,800 – SG

Leading the DraftKings slate by optimal-lineup rate among guards, Burks looks like a quality leverage play as well. The Knicks guard returned to the rotation last night for the first time since Dec. 27, seeing 31 minutes, including playing the entire fourth quarter. With a healthy 27-minute projection, I like the upside in rostering an inexpensive player who produces better than a fantasy point per minute.

Burks’ 6.1 leverage score on DraftKings also leads all guards on that site and ranks third among all players. By boom score probability, Burks ranks ninth overall on the slate, suggesting this isn’t simply a price-driven punt play of a value, Burks has ceiling-score upside for the cost.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Burks ranks out more in the “fine” category than he looks like a must-play option. The leverage is nice on the surface; at 5.8 he ranks second on the site. The issue is where Burks falls in the other categories. He has just an 8.4% optimal-lineup rate, 35th overall on the slate and 10th at the shooting guard spot. We have money to spend up for stars like James Harden and Paul George at the position, as well as several quality role players available with better marks than Burks, who also ranks just eighth positionally by boom score probability. Burks is a minor play as a mix-and-match option on FanDuel tonight.

Join STOKASTIC+ today!

Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

Fred VanVleet – Tampa Bay Toronto Raptors

DraftKings – $7,800 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $7,800 – SG

VanVleet looks to be one of the primary mid-range plays at the shooting guard spot on both sites. With a clearly defined role as one of the team’s primary scoring options, the newly paid VanVleet has come out of the gate at 1.06 fantasy points per minute this year, slightly up from last season’s 1.02 rate.

On DraftKings VanVleet carries a 9.9% optimal-lineup rate and a 16.0% boom score probability, both inside the top-20 overall on the slate. Among guard eligible players those numbers rank eighth and ninth respectively, but VanVleet is just the 16th most expensive option, giving us some value. When we account for his 1.9 leverage score on an ownership projection that is under 10% across the public, VanVleet starts to look like an appealing, undervalued asset on tonight’s DraftKings NBA slate.

On FanDuel VanVleet costs the same but appears in the optimal lineup at a 15.5% rate and has a 24.2% boom score probability. Those rank him second and fourth, respectively, among all shooting-guard-eligible players. He costs $400 less than the third-ranked player on the boom score list. The two players above that are Harden and George, who we know are more expensive as well. VanVleet comes in with the best leverage score among top shooting guards at 4.0. He looks underappreciated as just the eighth-most expensive shooting guard on a slate where we have money to burn.

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of NBA DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.