Did you stick with your NBA DFS picks until the bitter end, sweating Stephen Curry‘s monster performance and Jusuf Nurkic‘s fourth quarter disappearing act like I did last night? I hope it worked out better for you. The Sunday night NBA DFS slate was a fun ride, and we hit on a lot of solid plays across this space, the site’s overall content and our steaming shows. Make sure to digest as much as you can each day to get the best overall handle on the slate. Monday has a solid nine-game night lined up with a few critical pieces of news yet to emerge. Depending on what happens with some in/out information, we should have a few monster value plays on the DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates once again. Working with what we currently know about the slate, our goal here is to examine plays from a leverage and upside perspective utilizing the boom/bust tool. This means it is critical to read the analysis and not just skim the headline; sometimes we’re going to be talking about bad chalk in this space, so be aware of the context as well as the site-by-site nature of each point.
As always, this article comes out earlier in the afternoon, so it is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft.
[2021-New-Year-Promo]
[SportsbookAffiliates]
NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders | Jan. 4
Delon Wright – Detroit Pistons – DraftKings $4,000 – PG/SG / FanDuel $4,400 – SG
Delon Wright gets reliable run as a sixth man and sometimes starter for the Pistons on a normal night. On a night where we are expecting Blake Griffin and Josh Jackson to both miss the game, there should be plenty of minutes to expect Wright to soak up as much run as he can handle. While Wright has not set the world on fire with his production so far this season at just 0.79 fantasy points per minute, the role is large and the expense is low. We have established history to lean on with Wright; just last season he produced 0.93 FanDuel points and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. If we’re expecting him to see 34-36 minutes at or above his standard 14-15% usage, Wright should have a great chance at providing some ceiling points on his salary.
Wright is currently tracking for a 31.8% boom score and appearing in the optimal FanDuel NBA lineup in 17.9% of simulations, third at the position. He is largely under-owned, with a very strong 7.3 leverage score. At just $4,400 and playing a position on which I don’t ever mind making a value play, Wright is going to make his way into a lot of my lineups tonight. In DraftKings NBA contests, Wright costs just $4,000, pushing his boom score to a 30.5% — third overall on the slate and first among shooting guards — while he appears in a slate-leading 33.8% of simulated optimal lineups. Wright will be more popular on DraftKings, but with his positional flexibility and a 1.8 leverage score, there is still room to push ownership, and I would still look to be well above the field at this point.
[NBAContentLinks]
Jimmy Butler – Miami Heat – DraftKings $7,400 – PG/SF / FanDuel – $7,700 SG
Jimmy Butler is underpriced on both sites. The Heat star has begun the season slowly, missing time and putting up a clunker of a scoring performance in his return. At just 1.02 fantasy points per minute this season, he has seen his salary drop to very appealing levels. Butler is drawing ownership on both sites tonight in Miami’s matchup against the Thunder. The Heat are favored by 9 in what should be a great opportunity for Butler to get back in the swing of the season. On DraftKings, the ability to slot Butler in as a point guard provides additional intrigue and interesting roster flexibility at just $7,400. Butler’s 28.7% boom score and 21.6% optimal lineup appearances in simulations both rank second overall on the DraftKings NBA slate. At a slightly positive leverage position and what I consider to be a sizable salary discount for the player and historical production, I would be excited to get above the field on Butler tonight.
At shooting guard on FanDuel, Butler maintains a significant boom score at 42.6%, third overall on the site. His affordable price is drawing some attention on the blue site, however, pushing his leverage score to a -5.2 against a 18.1% appearance rate in optimal lineups in our simulations. I want to wait and see what emerging news on James Harden and other players does to the ownership and leverage as we approach lock. I still like landing around or even slightly above the field on an underpriced Butler. If his leverage score climbs with the public flocking to Harden and value, I will gladly leverage up on Butler in the midrange.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are 2.5-point favorites coming into their game against the Warriors, and they are rife with NBA DFS picks today. With the slate’s highest game total by a whopping 11.5 points, this game is drawing a ton of early ownership. The attention is spiking on both sites, but it seems most widespread in FanDuel NBA contests, where three of the four most popular players on the slate are Kings. On DraftKings, the Kings are not as explosively owned, but they remain among the most rostered plays.
At the shooting guard spot on FanDuel and slotting in at either shooting guard or small forward on DraftKings, Buddy Hield is one of the primary focuses of NBA DFS players tonight. The first name most people have mentioned on this team today, Hield has produced at just 0.72 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel this season, 0.78 on DraftKings, though he is more historically around a point-per-minute producer. Hield is carrying a solid 34.8% boom score on FanDuel and appears in the optimal lineup 23.5% of the time, but he has a dramatically negative leverage score at -14.9. With players we like at the midrange, in the value tier and at the star level at the shooting guard spot on the blue site, Hield seems like a player I can fade at that popularity. With just a -2.9 leverage score on DraftKings, Hield is somewhat more in play, though he only appears in the optimal DraftKings NBA lineup in 11.8% of simulations.
Marvin Bagley provides center and power forward eligibility on DraftKings at just $5,500 and comes into the slate with a 25.6% boom score, second overall among players with center eligibility and tops among power forwards and forwards. Bagley is sixth overall on DraftKings, appearing in the optimal lineup 16.2% of the time and with a leverage score that is trending only a bit negative compared to some other options at the position(s). He looks to be in play as reasonable chalk that we can get to with the field. On FanDuel, Bagley is the third-most popular player overall and has a -4.2 leverage score to go with his 29.3% appearance rate in the optimal lineup and 47% boom score. While I don’t love the ownership marks we’re seeing, Bagley is likely to come up in a fair share of the power forward spot in crunches. Bagley is significantly less expensive than most of the other similarly ranked options at the power forward spot on FanDuel, and we are required to roster two players at the position. I think this makes him a somewhat unavoidable piece of chalk on tonight’s FanDuel NBA slate unless things change significantly.
Star point guard De’Aaron Fox is my favorite among the popular NBA DFS picks on the Kings tonight. On FanDuel, the 1.13-points-per-minute producer is targeted for 35 minutes of productive run, with a 30.4% boom score. Fox is drawing ownership, but it is basically level with his frequency of appearances in the optimal lineup, putting him firmly in play at a discount among stars at the position tonight. On DraftKings, Fox is slightly more expensive and is more popular relative to his optimal lineup appearance frequency (we need an acronym) of just 16.9%. That ranks Fox third in the category among eligible overall guards and among point guards, but the two players above him by optimal lineup rate are also pulling positive leverage scores, while several stars behind him have significantly higher boom rates. Among eligible guards, Fox ranks just 15th on DraftKings by probability of putting up a boom score. I can explore other options at the spot on DraftKings, but would likely have exposure to Fox at a rate slightly lower than the field.
Center Richaun Holmes has seen his price climb to nigh unplayable levels in FanDuel NBA contests at $6,300. This puts him at just an 18.8% boom score and renders him in simulated optimal lineups only 3.5% of the time, and still he is over-owned. On DraftKings at $5,600 he lands in 8.8% of optimal lineups but has a ridiculous -11.5 leverage score. With just a 16.4% boom rate in DraftKings NBA contests, there are numerous better options at the center spot.
Forward Harrison Barnes is the last relevant name, with a 25.5% boom score on FanDuel and a solid 28.3% boom on DraftKings. Barnes is probably priced a bit high on FanDuel at $6,100 for a player who produced just 0.72 FanDuel points per minute last year and 0.89 so far this season. Barnes is fine but only appears in the optimal lineup 3.5% of the time. He will not be popular, however, making him a reasonable consideration to get different while still drawing some Kings shares on the blue site. On DraftKings, Barnes’ leverage score pushes further into negative territory, and he will be owned in more than 10% of lineups, making him less appealing when his optimal lineup appearances climb to only 6.9%. I can avoid the $5,600 Barnes in DraftKings builds.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, NBA DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
