NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

After a wild ride of a Friday NBA DFS slate, it’s time to relax with a nice easy seven-game Saturday. Of course, if you actually believe that we’re heading gently into lock today, I have a bridge and a number of digital basketball cards to sell you. Things will no doubt be chaotic, we already know there are a few big value spots on the board and a few players who may not go. Staying on top of everything is going to be critical once again, which is why the boom/bust is always my first stop to get a quick overview of anything that changed since my most recent update. It is the single best place in the industry to capture a full snapshot of the shape of a slate. We’ll take that tool apart here again today, looking for some of the more interesting plays or fades to discuss for DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Demarcus Cousins – Houston Rockets

DraftKings – $4,900 – C / FanDuel – $5,100 – C

While I might be writing this on a templated file, fear not, this is not a misprint or a remnant from yesterday’s column. DeMarcus Cousins is very much in play once again on both sites. On last night’s massive 11-game slate, Cousins stood alone above the other center options with his massive optimal lineup appearance rate. He delivered what NBA DFS owners needed, putting up 34 fantasy points in FanDuel’s scoring format, right on his target for a 425 total. After that, the night trended in odd directions with several of the key stars not coming through, and with Naz Reid delivering a higher value score and Clint Capela hitting his high salary target, the other parts of the Cousins constructions did not fully come through for us. Still, that doesn’t make anything about the Cousins play itself incorrect.

Tonight, Cousins tops the list when we sort by optimal lineup appearance rate on both sites. His 35.9% leads FanDuel, but not by nearly the margin that he did yesterday. His boom score probability of 59.3% remains excellent; despite the higher price tag Cousins has a terrific shot of posting a ceiling score for us again. He will be popular, pulling down a 52.9% ownership projection on a slate with fewer options at the position, but his appearance in more than three times the number of optimal lineups in simulations will push him over the top for me again.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Cousins tops the board among eligible centers with a 39.5% optimal lineup appearance rate, 16 percentage points higher than the next closest center, Jarred Vanderbilt, and 21 above the first premium level player, Kristaps Porzingis, who costs 75% more. Cousins will be extremely popular again, he has a -21.4 leverage score, but he is a fundamental building block for this slate on both sites.

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Kristaps Porzingis – Dallas Mavericks

DraftKings – $8,200 – PF/C / FanDuel – $8,700 PF

Back to full health, Kristaps Porzingis is looking like his old self on the court for the Mavericks, and that should spell good things for NBA DFS players. The lanky forward carries a 1.25 fantasy point per minute rate so far this season, and we’re projecting him for good run of 32 minutes as one of the premium forward options on the slate.

On DraftKings, Porzingis is the first comparable center option behind DeMarcus Cousins, ranking third at the position by optimal lineup appearance rate at 18.3%. He has a strong median projection that is well over 40 with a 26.1% boom score probability, suggesting there is a strong upside available. At a 4.9 leverage score, I’m looking to get well above the field on Porzingis tonight.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Porzingis shifts over to just the power forward spot, meaning we can roster him right alongside the Cousins play as one of the pricey assets he unlocks. Porzingis has a whopping 7.7 leverage score on the site, meaning he is significantly under-owned for his upside to a 33.8% probability of a boom score. He appears in 24.3% of optimal lineups in our simulations, pushing him to the top of rankings at the power forward spot and on the slate as a whole.

Cameron Johnson – Phoenix Suns

DraftKings – $4,400 – SF/PF / FanDuel – $4,400 – SF

Second year forward Cameron Johnson has been getting starts over veteran Jae Crowder for the Suns past three games in a row, with Crowder last starting on the 11th. Johnson has been relatively productive, seeing an average of 27.5 minutes, putting up 7.7 points 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 stocks over the three-game stretch. The interesting factor, and the thing to watch with this play, is the availability of star guard Devin Booker, who missed the final minute and change of last night’s overtime after a minor leg injury. Booker’s status for tonight’s second game of the back-to-back is up in the air, if he does not play there will be significant usage that must go somewhere.

At a very low price on both sites, if Johnson sees some of those additional touches, he could prove extremely valuable on both sites. Johnson currently ranks second overall on DraftKings, with a 25.7% optimal lineup appearance rate and a 23.0% boom score probability. He has multi-position eligibility on the site, making him a key piece of roster construction as we flex different high-end players in and out, working off of the value created by rostering both Johnson and DeMarcus Cousins. Johnson will be popular on the slate, but it is easy enough to get beyond the -3.2 leverage score and load up on the play, assuming we’re expecting the same run and usage when we get near lock.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Johnson looks less interesting as a small forward competing with several star caliber players for your click at the position. He appears in a scant 16.7% of optimal lineups, 18th overall on the site and just sixth at the small forward spot, while pulling slightly negative leverage. I think we can get away from Johnson on the blue site, and there are numerous plays that I like at the position, including Brandon Ingram and LeBron James.

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Malik Beasley – Minnesota Timberwolves

DraftKings – $6,800 – SG / FanDuel – $6,500 – SF

Minnesota forward Malik Beasley has had a minor breakout with his minutes in the Timberwolves rotation. He is putting up 0.93 fantasy points per minute so far this season, up from the 0.82 he posted last year, and he clocks regular starters minutes for the team. The Timberwolves rely on him for some of their offense, giving him a season long usage rate of 23.4%, up from last year’s 20.8%. With Karl-Anthony Towns and Juancho Hernangomez expected to miss another game tonight, and starting point guard D’Angelo Russell also sitting, the usage and focus on Beasley in the offense should climb even higher. Over the past three games, he is averaging 15 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.6 stocks in his 30.9 minutes. His assist rate has notably jumped from a season-long 15% to 24% over the stretch, a not insignificant change.

As an underpriced and typically underappreciated player on both sites, Beasley looks like a fine option again tonight. In DraftKings NBA contests, he is pulling down a 12.4% optimal lineup appearance rate and a 15.9% boom score probability, alongside a quality 35-point raw projection. All of which look like good mid-range options at the shooting guard spot. At $6,800, he will have some work to do to deliver the appropriate score for your lineup to hit the top of GPP standings, but he has the ability and opportunity.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Beasley slots in at the small forward position, and is my favorite option outside of the top two salary players. Beasley’s optimal lineup appearance rate ranks him fourth at the position, but there is no fundamental difference between the second ranked 19.4% and his 17.4% at the spot, and Beasley has a far better leverage score at 5.1 compared to a -2.3 for the second ranked player. With a lower salary, the opportunity for upside is slightly higher on the blue site; Beasley finds himself with a 26.3% boom score probability, more than enough for us to consider him on a seven game slate.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.