NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

We’re back to normal on Wednesday — in more ways than one on this particular Wednesday — and the NBA DFS slate is looking deep and exciting. With a full slate of 10 games, we should have a ton of value picks and stars available to construct our lineups. The boom/bust tool is always my first stop, even when I’m not writing this article. It’s the best place in the industry to capture a quick snapshot of who the top plays are across the full spectrum of position and salary for DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. We’re going back to the traditional approach to this article today after dumpster diving a bit yesterday on the two-gamer. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Doug McDermott – Indiana Pacers – UPDATED

DraftKings – $4,700 – SF/PF / FanDuel – $3,800 – PF

With various ailments across a large group of the Pacers frontcourt players, McDermott has been thrust into the limelight and has been productive for his salary. Always a player who could splash a few 3’sand make a few hustle plays, McDermott can run fantasy scores into the mid 20s or even 30 point range, which is where we will need him tonight. McDermott carries a 0.74 fantasy point per minute rate and a 26 minute projection. In 24.3 minutes per game, McDermott has averaged 12.6 real life points to go with his 39.7% shooting from behind the three point line. With increased usage and run, if he grabs a few additional rebounds (3.4 average) and makes one or two more threes than usual, McDermott is well on his way to paying off his salary and more.

On FanDuel McDermott lands in the optimal lineup 25.6% of the time and is under-owned with his 2.9 leverage score. At just $300 above the minimum, McDermott has a decent boom score probability at 12.7%, despite the relatively low median point projection.

The McDermott play has changed with the most recent update and the loss of options from the postponed game, a fascinating exercise in how the boom/bust tool really works and explains where the value on a slate comes from. McDermott now drops significantly on FanDuel, where we liked him earlier. He comes in with just a 9.3% optimal-lineup rate, down notably from the 25.6% rate we were seeing earlier. He is still inexpensive and has some upside for the money with his consistent 12.7% boom score probability, but he is a far less mandatory play now.

In DraftKings NBA contests, McDermott lands in ~~14.4%~~ only 3.8% of optimal lineups and costs significantly more at $4,700. The positional flexibility provided on that site renders McDermott slightly less useful, ~~but he is not out of play and has a solid 5.3~~ and he has just a 2.5 leverage score. The most questionable factor is the reduced boom score probability, which lands at just 3.2% on DraftKings. Rostering McDermott on that site could come with unnecessary opportunity cost given the other options at the position.

Pascal Siakam – Tampa Bay Toronto Raptors

DraftKings – $8,000 PF/C / FanDuel – $8,000 – SF

Siakam is a player who has lost the love of NBA DFS fans on both sites so far this year. With his production down from 1.14 fantasy points per minute to 1.06, Siakam has not lived up to expectations. With that, his price has also plummeted around the industry. When we get a player with known pedigree at a price that is incorrect for their upside, process dictates that we act on it. Ignore the name on the jersey and play the numbers.

Siakam slots in at multiple positions on DraftKings, including the center spot, and he lands in 15.6% of optimal lineups in simulations. With a 23.7% boom score probability on his 43.2 raw point projection and drawing one of the night’s stronger leverage scores at 4.5, Siakam looks like a great play.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Siakam slots in at the small forward spot, which is an important factor in roster construction with the site’s limitations. Siakam provides an 18.5% optimal-lineup rate, along with his 34% boom score probability, but he is undervalued on the blue site as well, pulling down a 3.4 leverage score. I’m happy to muscle up on some Siakam shares to get well above the field on both sites tonight.

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UPDATE: The Grizzles – Trail Blazers game has been postponed, saving us all from rostering too much Xavier Tillman. I added a bonus section at the end of the original article.

Xavier Tillman – Memphis Grizzlies

~~DraftKings – $3,500 – PF/C / FanDuel – $4,600 PF~~

This is a name you could be forgiven for not knowing before today, but you’ve probably heard it kicking around the industry all morning. With Grizzlies starting center, Jonas Valanciunas, landing in the league’s COVID-19 health and safety protocols, Tillman will be thrust into a large role in the Memphis frontcourt tonight.

The rookie big man has averaged 20.7 minutes per night so far, putting up 8.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 stocks, good for 0.99 fantasy points per minute. He will need to contribute in the counting stats for us in his extended run, if he scores a few additional real life points we can consider it gravy. At just $3,500 on DraftKings, Tillman looks like a strong building block on the surface. There is little risk in loading up on him at the price, despite the 52.3% projected public ownership, though if we only want to consider the leverage, we are looking at a whopping -22.5. It would be difficult but not impossible to replace the projected performance at the price, but the smarter play is probably to swallow some chalk on Tillman and get different elsewhere.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Tillman costs significantly more than on the other site. Slotting in as a power forward, Tillman lands in just 6.1% of optimal lineups and has only a 16% boom score probability. With a -4.1 leverage score, it seems that some of the public is misunderstanding cross-site construction, rostering Tillman because of the hype he is receiving on DraftKings. With multiple preferable options at the position, I can easily get away from a too-popular Tillman tonight.

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Kyle Lowry – Tampa Bay Toronto Raptors

DraftKings – $7,600 – PG / FanDuel – $7,500 – PG

Another member of the team that can’t get home is on the board tonight. Lowry is slightly underpriced for his overall production. Managing 1.04 fantasy points per minute and getting significant run in the tight Toronto rotation as the team’s starting point guard, Lowry is in play when his salary dips.

On DraftKings the point guard slots in with a 13.2% optimal-lineup rate, fourth among all eligible guards and among point guards. His 22.4% boom score probability ranks third on those lists, and he is riding an ownership projection that is around level with his optimal-lineup rate. Lowry looks like a solid option to run at least with the field, and I would have no issue pressing up a bit.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Lowry ranks second among point guards with an 18.3% optimal-lineup rate, and second by boom score probability at 31.7%. With a 3.0 leverage score, the public is simply not rostering the Raptors point guard enough for the price. Compared to other options at the position, several of which cost significantly more, Lowry looks very much in play for GPPs tonight.

Power Forward

I wanted to add another player breakdown after we lost the Memphis – Portland game to postponement, but a number of the top options play at the power forward spot on both sites, so we’ll do a quick positional breakdown instead. The plays differ from site to site, given the positional flexibility on DraftKings, but there are a wealth of options up and down the salary spectrum on both.

Of particular note, Magic forward Aaron Gordon stands atop the list by optimal-lineup rate on both sites by a not insignificant margin. On FanDuel he appears in 27.3%, while he lands in 17.8% of optimal lineups in DraftKings NBA simulations. He is popular on both sites, but there is upside to suggest we can still climb above the field on the player despite other options.

If we choose to pivot, there are plenty of choices. Paying up to Domantas Sabonis buys us additional security and upside. He comes in with a 31.4% boom score probability on FanDuel, 22.3% on DraftKings, and has the highest median projection by more than 11 fantasy points on both sites.

At a closer price to Gordon, Kristaps Porzingis provides a strong but also popular alternative on FanDuel, while he is trending under-owned on DraftKings. The ability to slot in the $7,900 Porzingis at either power forward or center adds to the value, though he appears in the optimal DraftKings lineup just 9.5% of the time, less than a cheaper alternative named LaMarcus Aldridge.

Aldridge costs only $6,100 on DraftKings and $6,000 in FanDuel NBA contests. He looks like a splendid option on both sites, coming in with a 13.2% optimal-lineup rate and 4.9 leverage score on the blue site, and 11.2% optimal with a 14.6% boom score probability against a 4.4 leverage score on DraftKings. Aldridge is my favorite alternate power forward on both sites.

Serge Ibaka, John Collins and Bam Adebayo provide additional depth while adding a bit of security of production, though technically Adebayo and Ibaka are centers on DraftKings. The trio are all fantasy point-per-minute producers, putting them in play on most slates when the prices are right. Ibaka and Collins are currently under-owned on both sites and have upside, landing in optimal lineups at similar rates to the other forwards in this range. Adebayo is trending slightly negative in the leverage department, but he looks like a fine option with a 25.7% boom score probability on FanDuel and 16.5% in DraftKings NBA contests.

Last but not nearly least, Marvin Bagley could have some sneaky value on the slate tonight. In DraftKings contests, Bagley can be rostered as a power forward or a center, and he lands in 18.3% of optimal lineups with a 2.6 leverage score, putting him at the top of the optimal lineups board on the site. Bagley costs just $5,600 and has a healthy 20.4% boom score probability, making him one of the stronger plays at the position on DraftKings tonight.

On FanDuel Bagley is a $6,200 power forward who appears in just 9.8% of optimal lineups. He is not off the board, but he ranks ninth at the position by optimal lineup rate and 10th by boom score probability. The best thing about the Bagley play tonight would be that no one is really going to him. The Kings forward has a slate-leading 7.1 leverage score at the position. It’s a narrow needle to thread, but there is some sneaky upside in the play tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.