NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders | 1/15

The Friday NBA DFS slate started life as a 10-gamer but was quickly whittled to eight thanks to ongoing COVID-19 issues with several teams. The remaining games still give us plenty to work with, and we should have a nice, high-scoring fun slate of action. The bulk of the night’s games have totals in the 220-230 range, which should provide plenty of opportunities for individual upside for stars and scrubs alike in both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate and leverage score, as well as the boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember, not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, we will also be discussing “bad chalk” and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jordan Clarkson – Utah Jazz

DraftKings – $6,100 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $5,200 – SG

Clarkson serves as the sixth man in the Jazz rotation when Joe Ingles does not play, which is the case again tonight as Ingles battles Achilles soreness. While several players in the Jazz lineup will see an uptick in minutes and usage, Clarkson stands to benefit the most and should be relied upon for some scoring off the bench in a key role. Clarkson has proven himself a valuable NBA DFS commodity when priced properly for the opportunity. This appears to be the case tonight.

On DraftKings Clarkson is a point guard and a shooting guard. He ranks 20th overall on the site by optimal-lineup rate, 10th among eligible guards and fifth among shooting guards. He is a mid-tier play by price, with several options both above and below him in salary appearing in optimal lineups more frequently. Where we gain with Clarkson is in his 4.5 leverage score, which looks fantastic next to the -2.4, -5.8, -3.1 and -20.0 above him at the shooting guard spot when we stay sorted by optimal-lineup rate. With four of those five players – including the -20.0 – ranking within two percentage points of Clarkson in frequency, I’m happy to grab the huge leverage difference. Clarkson provides a higher boom score probability than several of the other options at the spot as well, adding to the appeal.

In FanDuel NBA contests, the shooting guard is less expensive, coming in at just $5,200. This pushes his boom score probability all the way to 31.2% and lands Clarkson in the optimal lineup in 20.3% of FanDuel contest simulations. With a 3.2 leverage score and a quality 29-minute projection on a player who is currently averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute, I’m definitely getting to some Clarkson unless we see a dramatic shift.


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Andre Drummond – Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings – $9,300 – C / FanDuel – $9,800 – C

Still the primary option among Cleveland’s (checks notes) 347 centers, Drummond looks like a stellar option on tonight’s slate. With the impending arrival of new young center Jarrett Allen as part of the package coming to the Cavaliers in the wake of the four-team James Harden trade, Drummond’s minutes ceiling is a bit of a question mark but not something to sweat. With a 30-minute projection, Drummond is taking the top off the center spot on both sites.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Drummond tops the position with a 20.4% optimal-lineup rate for his $9,300 salary. He is a pay-up option with a ceiling, as indicated by his still-quality 16.4% boom score probability. The best part of Drummond is that he is going significantly under-owned in early projections, creating a huge 7.7 leverage score. With the ability to play multiple centers and several quality value plays at the position, I can see this as a night to lean into a big-heavy construction.

On FanDuel Drummond ranks just 17th overall by optimal-lineup rate, but he is the top-ranked center at 16.0%. The singular center creates a plateau on this slate, where the optimal lineup could head in any direction. This is an interesting inflection point for the slate overall, as several of the center options are at significantly lower price tiers than Drummond and Nikola Vucevic. Of the pair, Drummond looks stronger thanks again to his leverage score. He is undervalued and carrying a 6.5 leverage score and a 22.4% boom score probability. I will definitely spread my center ownership out in FanDuel NBA tournaments tonight, but Drummond is a player I would like to leverage up on and get beyond the field to capture the true upside of his potential ceiling game.

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Marcus Smart – Boston Celtics

DraftKings – $7,600 PG / FanDuel – $6,200 – SG

Smart appears to be a player that the public is flocking to on tonight’s FanDuel NBA slate. With several key members of the Celtics rotation still out due to various ailments and COVID-19 protocols, it makes sense that Smart is getting attention for his role and opportunity, but at the price I think we can do better than chasing the field.

On the blue site Smart ranks just fifth at the shooting guard position with a 14% optimal-lineup rate. Three of the four guards ahead of him are pay-up options in the $8,000-$9,000 tier — the fourth is Clarkson. With extremely similar metrics in everything but ownership, and considering Clarkson’s salary savings of $1,000, I will happily get to the lower-owned Clarkson with more frequency. Smart has a slightly higher raw projection, but his boom score probability is 4 percentage points lower, and he has an ugly -9.3 leverage score.

On DraftKings Smart is more of a high-salary mix in option. His $7,600 price tag just seems wrong when I see it next to the player name, and the public seems to agree. Smart is carrying just a 2.3% ownership projection, which is aligned with his 2.7% optimal-lineup rate and just 3.5% boom score probability. There are better NBA DFS picks to be made at the point guard spot on DraftKings tonight.

Eric Bledsoe – New Orleans Pelicans

DraftKings – $5,700 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $5,300 SG

Bledsoe is a player I’ve gotten to a fair amount throughout the early part of the season when he’s been viable. He is currently questionable for tonight’s game with an eye condition that forced him to miss the Pelicans’ most recent game on Wednesday. If Bledsoe does play, his low price on both sites alongside the increased opportunity he will see with Lonzo Ball sidelined, is pushing a significant amount of ownership in his direction.

On FanDuel Bledsoe is carrying a slate-worst -14.1 leverage score. He appears in just 10.0% of optimal lineups in simulations and carries a 22.3% boom score probability. At the shooting guard position, the boom score ranks him fifth, while his optimal-lineup rate ranks ninth. With a public ownership share approaching 25%, I think we can easily find better NBA DFS picks than Bledsoe on the site tonight.

On DraftKings the play looks almost as rough. Bledsoe adds point guard eligibility but barely moves the needle in other categories. His optimal-lineup rate is just 9.3%, and he is carrying a -12.4 leverage score. His 10.3% boom score probability ranks just 32nd overall on the slate. Bledsoe appears to be a solid pass on both sites so far, but keep an eye on variables.

Aaron Gordon – Orlando Magic

DraftKings – $7,300 – PF / FanDuel – $6,500 PF

Gordon is one of the stronger plays by boom score on both sites tonight. Given his production at the position, Gordon will be popular. He has posted 1.09 FanDuel points per minute since returning to his full-time role and has a 33-minute projection tonight.

On FanDuel Gordon has not yet been priced up for his full role. His $6,500 salary is significantly lower than we should be seeing the player, which is pushing his boom score to lofty heights of 44.7%. Appearing in 33.3% of optimal lineups, Gordon is a tasty piece of chalk tonight despite the -7.4 leverage score. I will have a significant investment in Gordon shares tonight.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Gordon costs $800 more but still pulls down a strong 22.4% boom score probability and appears in 16.6% of optimal lineups. His -4.1 leverage score is entirely playable. I would still likely push above his ownership mark that’s half of what he is getting on FanDuel, but Gordon does not glimmer quite as brightly on this site.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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