NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders | 1/25

Another day, another monster night for the Awesemo NBA DFS community. Congratulations to all our big winners, who accounted for a pretty big chunk of the top 100, at least in FanDuel NBA contests that I was in. With a big 10-game slate on tap for Monday night, there are a ton of options on the board from up and down the salary spectrum, including some significant, highly owned value plays once again. With a bit more room to spread out, we can focus on some of the higher-upside plays without getting deep into mid-range plays simply for ownership like we did with the smaller slate yesterday. We’re always searching for that sweet spot between value, upside and ownership, but the weights of those factors can vary. Tonight we have some options in both FanDuel and DraftKings NBA contests. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Damian Lillard – Portland Trail Blazers

DraftKings – $10,300 – PG / FanDuel – $9,700 – PG

Just run it back. Lillard will remain a strong producer for as long as C.J. McCollum is sidelined with his foot injury. He put up 57 FanDuel points in his 34 minutes last night, getting 32% usage and putting up 39 real-life points with five rebounds and eight assists. The uptick in usage, rebounding and assist rates should all be sustained while his wingman is on the shelf.

We won’t take much time here. The play is basically the same as last night and looks high end, but Lillard is more likely to be a mandatory building block at his FanDuel price. The blue site did not bother to change Lillard’s price from last night. Fire away.

On DraftKings he went up by $300 and sits at a lofty $10,300. This isn’t putting him out of play; he still lands in 14.8% of optimal lineups — good for seventh overall and fourth among point guards — along with a 32.6% boom score probability, third overall on the slate. There are other options at the position and with DraftKings’ flexibility, but Lillard has a good chance at delivering a ceiling score and could easily be a key piece.


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Delon Wright – Detroit Pistons

DraftKings – $5,500 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $5,600 – PG

Wright is a player who has popped up for us several times throughout the early part of the season. He continually sees minutes and opportunity in the guard rotation for the Pistons, and with point guards Derrick Rose, Frank Jackson and Killian Hayes all still out, he will likely be the primary ball handler once again.

Last time out, playing in the same role, Wright started and saw 35 minutes, scoring 10 real-life points while pulling down seven rebounds and dishing out six assists. He added a block but was slightly hampered by three turnovers and just 14.7% usage on his way to a quality fantasy night.

Wright has a great shot at delivering for the money on DraftKings tonight. The multi-position eligibility and price are pushing him toward being a key piece in our optimal constructions. Across simulations, Wright was the leading player in optimal-lineup appearances, coming in at 20.4%. He carries a 23.3% boom score probability on his affordable salary, though the public is on him and he has a -2.3 leverage score. At under 25% ownership, I think we have room to push above the field on the play as things currently stand. If his optimal-lineup rate falls and the ownership lingers, I’m happy to step away.

On FanDuel Wright appears popular but far less relevant, pushing him into the lower end of the pool of NBA DFS picks for me. His 13.6% optimal-lineup rate ranks 15th overall on the site and third at the point guard position, but the two players above him look like far better options, while several below him have very similar optimal lineup numbers with positive leverage scores and higher overall ceilings. With value elsewhere on the board and a leverage score that is already only around even, I think we can roster Wright with or below the field without taking a big hit to opportunity. I will have him, but I don’t see him as the type of play to push too far in FanDuel NBA contests tonight.

Jeff Teague – Boston Celtics

DraftKings – $3,700 – PG/SG / FanDuel – $3,800 – PG

This is a play that looks dramatically over-owned off the top when perusing the DraftKings NBA boom/bust. On FanDuel Teague is not really relevant. He is pulling negative leverage but only a 4.5% overall public ownership share. Even at $3,800 with a 22-minute projection, Awesemo has Teague at just a 1.8% optimal-lineup rate and a 7.8% boom score probability on that site.

The DraftKings public ownership is problematic. Teague costs just $3,700 on the site, so I get how people are getting to him as a building block, but Awesemo’s data is suggesting there are better plays available. Teague is pulling down a slate-worst -12.8 leverage score on his meager 7.1% optimal-lineup rate. He has just a 5.5% boom score probability in the most recent update. With 20% of the field looking in the veteran point guard’s direction, I think we can find options elsewhere unless we see major swings in the data.

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Chris Boucher – Tampa Bay Toronto Raptors

DraftKings – $6,800 – PF / FanDuel – $6,500 – C

Probably more popular for the NBA DFS community than he is the real-life, casual NBA fan, the Raptors’ backup big man has proven a capable producer when he gets the opportunity. Boucher has a healthy 1.36 fantasy points per minute so far this season, and Awesemo has him projected for a 28-minute night. The Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back, with Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry both listed as questionable. With both of those stars out last night, Boucher still came off the bench, seeing just 21 minutes but putting up a 12-point, 10-rebound double-double. The unit that Toronto started saw significant run last night. If Siakam does not play tonight, we could easily see Boucher get extended minutes.

On DraftKings Boucher slots in as a center and is only a mix-and-match piece. There are numerous options at the position at all ranges of salary, and his 5.1% optimal-lineup rate isn’t inspiring. He does carry a 12.9% boom score probability and a 34-point median projection, however, which puts him in play given his 4.5 leverage score. He will not be popular on DraftKings tonight, with ownership projected below 1%.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Boucher is a power forward and far more relevant. He appears in 13.7% of optimal lineups, good for 14th overall on the site and third at the power forward position, and he provides a quality mid-range option at the position. His 32.3% boom score probability ranks second among power forwards on the site, and the most appealing factor is his leverage score, a shiny 6.4, which is far and away the best at the position. Boucher looks like a very solid, under-owned asset among FanDuel NBA DFS picks tonight.

Center

Probably the most critical position to get right from day to day on FanDuel, the singular center spot is always worth a look. DraftKings NBA DFS fans are lucky with their ability to move players around, utilizing the flex spot and multi-position eligibility to roster multiple centers at a time, but there are still interesting strategy questions at play within those combinations as well.

On DraftKings the top center-eligible player by optimal-lineup rate is Isaiah Roby, who carries just a $4,600 salary and slots in at the power forward spot as well. Roby has a significantly lower median projection and boom score probability than the competing options, who are all higher priced. The difference in optimal-lineup rate between Roby and those options is negligible, and he is drawing significant ownership for the caliber of the upside. I think it makes sense for us to pivot to a lower-owned value or midrange option like Lauri Markkanen or Jarred Vanderbilt here. Both are drawing similar numbers across the board and carry less public ownership. I’m happy to be at or above the field on either of the star players who rank in between these options on the DraftKings boom/bust tool.

Superstar Nikola Jokic ranks third among eligible DraftKings centers by boom score probability at 27.5%, but he is appearing in only 9.4% of optimal lineups at basically even ownership. At a monster $10,800 price, it’s difficult to push up beyond the field on Jokic without damaging upside in other areas, but if you can find the path, there is nothing wrong with the spot or the player. Reliable pay-down alternatives by boom score probability include Enes Kanter, who comes in at $6,600 while getting a 28-minute projection. His 1.28 fantasy points per minute means he should be able to capitalize on the spot, and he offers significant savings while appearing in 10.9% of optimal lineups and carrying even leverage.

On FanDuel Jokic is more expensive at $11,200. He lands in the optimal lineup 10.8% of the time, which ranks him just fifth at the position. That metric is flat on the singular center site tonight; among the top seven centers, the spread is less than seven percentage points from top to bottom. Jokic has explosive upside, but we are paying a price for it that could cost us at other positions. He has a 28.8% boom score probability, which is solid but ranks just fifth at the position.

By that metric, Steven Adams leads the slate with a whopping 41.4% probability of posting a boom score. The Pelicans center lands in 13% of optimal lineups in FanDuel NBA simulations, but he is drawing significant public attention at a -9.3 leverage score. With numerous options at the position and not many indicators pushing us toward Adams over the other options, it is easy enough to make this an ownership and salary discussion. While Adams is cheap at just $5,000, I can look to Mason Plumlee for $4,400 and spend money elsewhere.

Plumlee is also not a secret. He has 16.1% projected ownership, but the leverage score is a more tolerable -5.1. We pick up salary savings with him, and he still has a 38.2% boom score probability. There is a cost in projected minutes, which we know can lead to a cost in ultimate production, but I think we can accept the risk for the other factors. I’m also inclined to look down the list to Kanter on this site as well.

Kanter is getting the primary center run in Portland, and he costs just $6,500 on FanDuel. The public is only on Kanter at a 10.3% projection, which is lower than his optimal-lineup rate and pushing him to a quality positive leverage score. Kanter has a 33.5% boom score probability and a median projection that compares favorably with everyone on the list in this range. As the top leverage option among the leaders, he is standing out to me as a strong option. I would roster him ahead of Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid, who both cost more and appear in the optimal lineup in simulations far less frequently.


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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