The Slate Starter is a daily first look at to get your daily fantasy basketball lineup-building process started before lock tonight. Each day, we will go through some of the best NBA DFS picks, top stacks and optimal lineup construction for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to check Awesemo’s NBA Starting Lineups page, as it will be updated throughout the day as the NBA injury reports are released and breaking news surfaces. Wednesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET, and it showcases some of the most surprising players to start the year. Can any of these red-hot players keep it rolling? Let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Picks & Optimal Lineup Construction | Oct. 27
Ja Morant, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Morant has been pegged as a future star since entering the league, and he appears ready to live up to that billing. He has averaged 55.3 DraftKings points through his first three games, which trails only Kevin Durant’s average of 56.8 on tonight’s slate.
There have been a few key differences in Morant’s fantasy profile to start the year. For starters, he’s playing more minutes. He has averaged 35.3 minutes through his first three games after averaging 32.6 or less in each of his first two seasons. Morant has also been way more aggressive. His usage rate is up to 35% in 2021-22, which represents an increase of nearly 8%.
The bigger question is if his shooting is legit. He’s shot 44.4% from 3-point range to start the year on a career-high 6 attempts per game. He was at just 30.3% from 3-point range last year. He’s probably due for some regression, but if he can stay around 38-40%, he’s poised for a monster year.
Check out how Morant stacks up with some of the other superstars in our NBA Projections today.
Malcolm Brogdon, PG, Indiana Pacers
Brogdon is a bit tougher to make a case for. He’s been excellent to start the year, averaging 45.75 FanDuel points per game, but his numbers are definitely inflated. He has benefitted from the Pacers playing an abundance of overtime games to start the year, and he has also been playing without Caris LeVert. LeVert has been upgraded to questionable for the game tonight, and his return would, undoubtedly, impact Brogdon.
That said, Brogdon could be an interesting leverage option if LeVert is out again. He very rarely carries significant ownership, so he could grade out favorably using the Awesemo Boom/Bust Probability Tool.
Harrison Barnes, F, Sacramento Kings
Barnes might be the biggest surprise of the year. He was once considered a promising prospect, but he never really blossomed into a star at the NBA level. He was a solid role player for the Kings last year, averaging 16.1 points per game, but he’s upped that mark to 28.3 through his first three games.
Barnes’ usage is way up this year — he’s posted a mark of 25.6% this year — but the biggest reason has been some elite 3-point shooting volume and efficiency. Not only is he averaging a career-high 9.0 3-point attempts per game, but he’s also making 55.6% of them. That screams regression moving forward.
Barnes could also be worth exploring in the player prop market. His scoring prop will likely be inflated, so his under could pop in the Awesemo Player Prop Tool.
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