The NBA DFS Expert Survey
Favorite Player: Cash Games
- Adam: LaMarcus Aldridge
- Loughy: Tobias Harris (FanDuel)/LaMarcus Aldridge (DraftKings)/Luke Kornet (Yahoo!)
- Emac: LaMarcus Aldridge
- Spags: DeMar DeRozan
- Alex: Shabazz Napier
Favorite Player: GPP
Biggest Bust
- Adam: Pascal Siakam (I like him but relative to ownership and other similarly priced options I think he is likely to underwhelm)
- Loughy: Collin Sexton
- Emac: Dejounte Murray
- Spags: Shabazz Napier
- Alex: Trae Young
Position to Pay Up For
Position to Pay Down For
Best Team to Target
Worst Team to Target
Top Contrarian Play and Why
- Adam: Luka Doncic. He is only projected for 14 percent ownership on DraftKings as the clear top-projected player on the slate. While the value options tonight are risky, there are enough of them that it is likely a couple come through and we create a lot of upside in our lineups by having a relatively low owned Doncic.
- Loughy: Ja Morant is a clear risk as a rookie point guard whose usage has fluctuated heavily this season. He has seen his minutes trend upward lately, though, and is still producing a 27% usage rate and 35% assist rate overall. Morant is projected to carry 4% ownership on DraftKings and 5% on FanDuel against a Cavaliers team that ranks dead last in defensive rating since the start of December. It’s a pace-down spot for Memphis, but this game still boasts a a slate-high 230-point total at the Grind House. As someone who’s averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute in January, and played a season(career)-high 37 minutes last time out, Morant could make for a great low-owned tournament play at a deep point guard position.
- Emac: Cleveland at Memphis: four of our seven games today are landing in the 228-230 projected point range… however, this game seems to be devoid of many recommendations from the DFS Echo Chamber. Portland at Dallas, Atlanta at San Antonio and the Raptors side of Washington at Toronto are all getting their due and proper, but early analysis has been relatively light for both the Cavaliers and Grizzlies. Kevin Love is playing tonight and will probably sit out of tomorrow’s game. In his last three situations like this he played 33.1, 29.7 and 34.7 minutes. Putting him in at 32 minutes has him in play, going to 34-35 minutes has him popping. Darius Garland is a good play across the board while Collin Sexton, Cedi Osman and Tristan Thompson are more site dependent. Morant leads the way for Memphis and he could see 34-ish minutes considering they do not play again until Monday. Dillon Brooks is a favorable lay on most sites, as is Jae Crowder (knee) depending on his health. Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr. will be lost in the shuffle with all of the other bigs tonight, but I am tepid at best – but considering a game stack here.
- Spags: Kevin Love. Early runs of ownership have him at very low numbers on both DraftKings and FanDuel and I like the matchup and price for him. Overall the Cleveland-Memphis game seems a bit overlooked to me with how many reasonably priced guys there are in a game where Memphis has a 109 defensive rating and Cleveland has an even worse 113 defensive rating. The game is a pace-up for Cleveland and Love had an extra day of rest so I think he can show up big as a part of an intriguing situation.
- Alex: Bradley Beal: Coming back from his injury, there’s a lot of uncertainty in his minutes, but he played 19 first half minutes last game. If he can get back to his season average of 36, he would be a great value that might be under the radar tonight.
