NBA DFS Picks – Strategy Syllabus for Thursday, January 30

The NBA DFS Expert Survey

Favorite Player: Cash Games

Favorite Player: GPP

  • Josh: Joel Embiid
  • Emac: Devonte’ Graham
  • Spags: Devonte’ Graham

Biggest Bust

  • Josh: Kevin Love
  • Emac: Choose any Denver Nugget
  • Spags: Kevin Porter Jr.

Position to Pay Up For

Position to Pay Down For

Best Team to Target

Worst Team to Target

Top Contrarian Play and Why

  • Josh: Oddly enough, I think the ownership, particularly on FanDuel, looks pretty reasonable. I don’t see any glaring contrarian plays. I like Rudy Gobert, but he’s 6% owned and I have him as my third-favorite center by a significant amount. Even if I recommend him, I’ll likely only have him in 10% or so. That’s not a huge stamp of approval.
  • Emac: Terry Rozier. If you are looking for a direct pivot away from Devonte’ Graham, then look to his teammate. Yes, you can absolutely play both of them in the same lineup since they are a large part of the offensive production for the Hornets. This is a phenomenal matchup against a team that is allowing 117.4 points per 100 possessions over their last 15 games. Additionally, the Wizards have been involved in back-to-back games that topped 285 total points in regulation. Rozier’s popularity may increase as we approach lock, but for now he shockingly is in single digits on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
  • Spags: D’Angelo Russell. Russell has over 32% usage on the year and over 50 fantasy points in four out of his last five games. The Warriors are a 13-point underdog on the road but, as has been the case in many games lately, if they’re competitive into the fourth quarter it’s because Russell shot them into the game. He’s an interesting play to me because if you grab him and he excels, that means Draymond Green and some of the reasonably priced Celtics guys are also more likely to be on the court and achieving at a high level. At under 5% ownership, he’s an intriguing boom-or-bust play.
Author
Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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