After a nice little week off the daily grind, we’re back with a six-game slate for today’s NBA DFS picks. There are a few games that project to potentially be outright destructions by road teams, a late game-time decision for Ben Simmons, and some absences (and a buyout or two) that’ll open up volatile chalk like Shaq Harrison and Bruce Brown. Hopefully the time off refreshed us all because this one could get chaotic fast. Let’s break it all down in our return to normalcy with the Feb. 20 Switch and Hedge.
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A Solid Post-Break Price for Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid seems a bit underpriced on DraftKings in particular but also on FanDuel. He’ll play the Nets at home and he had an interesting rotation with Al Horford last game. Embiid and Horford’s minutes were staggered until the end of the third quarter ,and while that could cost him a few minutes overall, Embiid should be more productive per-minute without Horford on the floor. Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris also seem underpriced for the matchup while Ben Simmons is probably a bit more expensive than you’d like to see. Simmons has some contrarian appeal after four games over 47.5 fantasy points as he headed into the All-Star break but there’s no discount to be found there. He was downgraded to a game-time decision as I wrote this and if he were to miss, Alec Burks could see a lot more run at a cheap price.
Spencer Dinwiddie looks like the most playable Net, but it’s hard to argue Caris LeVert’s heater before the All-Star break. LeVert was over 39.5 fantasy points in four out of his last five games before the break with more reliable usage than Dinwiddie. I don’t mind either guy or a cheap Taurean Prince even though none of the three seem like they’re worth loading up on.
An Appealing and Not Too Highly Owned Game in Sacramento
Memphis and Sacramento have both played with decent pace in 2020 and their 229.5 combined total for tonight’s game is one of the best on the slate. De’Aaron Fox projects for a lot of ownership but the rest of the game looks overlooked. Fox looks like a strong play, but Nemanja Bjelica and Bogdan Bogdanovic also look decently underpriced for their secure court times. Buddy Hield likely has the highest ceiling of the non-Fox trio. Despite his bench role, Hield has over 31 minutes in his last four games. I also wouldn’t totally sleep on Harry Giles as value with his minutes up a little bit more lately. His size could become needed against Jonas Valanciunas if he starts to dominate the boards.
Valanciunas appeals to me the most out of Memphis’ side. Sacramento has no real counter for him inside and he could clean up on the glass. Dillon Brooks also seems underpriced after a cold run before the break. He shoots just 41% from the floor this year, but his 25% usage offers some opportunity on the days his shot falls. He’s had at least 16 shots in his last two games despite poor efforts. I also never really hate a stab at low-owned Ja Morant. His 33% usage against Portland before the break was the highest he’s put up in 2020 after he notched his first triple-double the game before that.
Is There Any Chance Detroit Stays Alive vs. Milwaukee?
Reggie Jackson accepted a buyout from Detroit, leaving 27% more usage up for grabs in a game where scoring is needed versus Milwaukee. Detroit is a 13-point underdog at home and someone has to do something for them. Is it possible that’s Derrick Rose? His price is reasonable after he played 17 minutes in his return to the lineup last game and Awesemo projects him to see 27 minutes today. Rose averaged 1.5 fantasy points per minute with 33% usage when Jackson, Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin were off the court this year so I’d want to give him a chance in some lineups.
Christian Wood and Bruce Brown should also see upticks in opportunity with Markieff Morris a cut behind. These guys could easily be traps with the likelihood of Milwaukee running Detroit off the court, but if they somehow come out motivated after the break, there could be strong value to emerge if the Pistons keep it close. Brown’s price on FanDuel in particular seems hard to avoid, particularly if Rose doesn’t pick up the start.
Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like the only playable option for Milwaukee given that his teammates are still mostly priced up for his pre-All-Star break absence. Maybe George Hill is in play as a minimum-priced pivot too given some high ownership expected for other guys at bargain basement salaries. The risk of a blowout is real with how outgunned Detroit will be.
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A Similar Road Mismatch for Houston
The Rockets are a 10-point favorite at Golden State and it’ll take a lot for the Warriors to stay alive here. Andrew Wiggins is likely the first place to look. He’s had around 25% usage since the trade but he put up 52 fantasy points versus Phoenix last time out. Wiggins’ four blocks and two steals padded that one out a bit, but he has the opportunity to keep them in this one.
Jordan Poole had the second-most shots on the team last game with 12 attempts in 32 minutes as the team’s “starting PG”. Draymond Green and Wiggins will take actual point duties away from him enough to cap his assist upside, but the court time could pay off if his 30% shooting from the floor this year starts to positively regress. Marquese Chriss seems more reliable with his 1.1 fantasy points per minute average and 27 or more minutes in his last four games. Chriss has shown 45.25-fantasy-point upside during that span.
James Harden looks like a slightly better value than Russell Westbrook, but both should have strong upside against Golden State’s 110.2 defensive rating. Their prices are tough to get to, but they should get whatever they want. Robert Covington also looks well priced with him likely to take advantage of the 38.3% shooting from deep that Golden State allows. Covington had 39.25 fantasy points despite 3-for-11 shooting in his last game and he’s put up at least seven 3-point attempts in every game since he joined Houston.
Chalk Shaq Harrison is a Dicey Proposition
Chandler Hutchison will be out for the Bulls for their home game against Charlotte and someone has to soak up some of the minutes. Shaq Harrison currently projects for sky high ownership at a minimum price as a result. Harrison averages 1.04 fantasy points per minute this year and he had 45.25 fantasy points when he saw a season-high 26 minutes in November. The Bulls are deeply lacking in bodies, and while Coby White’s minutes are more secure, Harrison has to see minutes and may even pick up a start today. If he starts, I’d feel pretty good about his prospects. Thaddeus Young also likely will see a bit more run with Hutchison out and he, Tomas Satoransky and White project to be fairly strong values. The same goes for Ryan Archidiacono at a slightly more expensive price than Harrison.
Zach LaVine has killed these Hornets this year with 60.5 fantasy points on 49 real-life points in November. He also stunk his last time he played them in December with 26.5 fantasy points on 4-for-19 shooting. LaVine will continue to have all the usage he wants with a price that is uncomfortable but can allow some upside. I’m not sure that he’s a must-have on today’s slate, but he’s capable of big things at less ownership due to his elevated salary.
Terry Rozier is incredibly cheap for Charlotte in his expected return to the lineup. He only cracked 30 fantasy points once in his last five games, but his price is low enough that he is worth some exposure. The primary ball-handler role has gone Devonte Graham’s during that stretch. Graham has 24% usage with a 37% assist rate in February while Rozier is down to 21% usage with just a 12% assist rate. Graham likely has the higher ceiling at this point but Rozier is a much better value. Rozier and Malik Monk have some upside relative to their salaries with their situation a lot like a poor man’s version of Oklahoma City’s three-point-guard rotation.
I’m also less trusting of the big situation for Charlotte, but one of P.J. Washington, Cody Zeller or Willy Hernangomez should be able to spike an upside here. Washington’s minutes seem the most secure, but he is a hard to trust player with 18% usage on the year.
A Comfy Return for Miami in Atlanta
Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are both priced down for one of the NBA’s best DFS matchups at Atlanta. Both guys look deserving of chalky ownership today. Adebayo’s floor is a little more secure than Butler’s given how other Heat players should easily find baskets without Butler’s help. If I didn’t play Butler, I’d be more open to Goran Dragic or Kendrick Nunn. I also wouldn’t totally sleep on Duncan Robinson with him likely to see some easy looks for his eight 3-point attempts per game. He’s a 44% shooter from deep on the year and his one outlier game of 50.75 fantasy points this year came against Atlanta in an overtime battle last time they played.
Trae Young will find some tough defense, but he’s an interesting GPP play at 5% projected ownership. Young has yet to exceed 40 fantasy points versus Miami this year, but he’s Atlanta’s best chance to keep this one close at home. I’m less inclined to pay John Collins’ price tag but I don’t mind some of the value with DeAndre Hunter and Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon struggled due to fouls last game with just 18 minutes but still had 25.5 fantasy points in that span. He’s over that mark in his last five games and his size is likely needed to keep Adebayo at bay
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