We have just four games on our usual shortened Thursday slate and this might be one of the toughest of the year for NBA DFS picks. Thanks to a couple of quality real-life matchups, there should be a lot of defense to go around on this slate. When paired with really aggressive prices industry-wide, it looks like a night to take leaps of faith with some guys in very suboptimal spots. This looks like a difficult one so let’s get right into tonight’s slate of games with the Dec. 12 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
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Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
The Highest Combined Total Of The Day…Is Cleveland At San Antonio?
Despite two sluggishly paced teams, Cleveland at San Antonio has a slate-high combined total of 219.5. Both defenses have been weak with a 110.5 defensive efficiency rating for San Antonio and a 112.7 defensive efficiency rating for Cleveland. The 11-point spread favors San Antonio at home and, when combined with the back-to-back for the Cavs, there is some blowout risk. But it’s hard to not like pretty much all the core pieces from this game.
DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are the most obvious beneficiaries of Cleveland’s lax defense with their team leading usage rates. The NBA DFS prices work for both and the ownership projections seem fair. I also don’t mind Dejounte Murray even though he continues to compete for minutes with Derrick White. Murray saw 32 minutes, including overtime, in their last game and Gregg Popovich said he’s off his minutes limit now. Even Bryn Forbes doesn’t look terrible with a decent possibility of him getting going with his team-leading 6.6 three-point attempts per game.
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Rudy Gay and Jakob Poeltl’s minutes seem less secure but they both project fairly well for me assuming they can get into the mid 20s of minutes. I’d strongly lean towards the core guys but on a four game slate these guys all have potential.
Kevin Love got back on track versus Houston with 37.75 FP in 32 minutes and his price still looks good. He and Tristan Thompson, who saw 34 minutes yesterday, seem to be the best NBA DFS values on Cleveland’s side. Collin Sexton should have an opportunity for success with his team-leading 26.5% usage. And, as we saw yesterday, Jordan Clarkson can heat up off the bench with the possibility of getting into the high 20s with his minutes. Clarkson and Kevin Porter Jr. stole minutes from Sexton/Darius Garland and Cedi Osman, respectively in that pace-up spot against Houston.
Luka’s Come Back Down To Earth
I’ve had a hard time this year balancing Luka Doncic’s projections with his results. We’ve now seen him under 50 FP in his last three games and that’s a substantial risk at his price point. But he’s had over 41% usage in three out of his last four games that include those recent failures. In another low-paced matchup against a mediocre 106.9 defensive efficiency rating for Detroit, I’m not inclined to get heavily above the field on Doncic. He has the potential to excel and break the slate but his price point takes you off of a lot of quality guys with the lack of value tonight. I’d never begrudge anyone playing Doncic but with high ownership expected, I’d be curious to try other lineup constructions rather than treat him as a lock.
Kristaps Porzingis also projects for very high ownership and his price seems fine. He’s been under 30 FP in his last six games but that seems like it has to turn around sooner than later. His struggles are kind of baffling but, with his price where it is, he certainly can have upside. It’s hard to see wanting anyone besides him of the secondary Mavs, perhaps a very low-owned Tim Hardaway Jr. can get going.
Detroit’s side doesn’t project terribly well for me either. Andre Drummond has a strong raw points projection and could certainly do well parking himself in the middle in this slower-paced matchup. I’m also intrigued by Blake Griffin after he stunk last time out following his only good game of the year against Indiana. Maybe the lower pace fits Griffin better than pace-ups due to his litany of injuries? It’s not a crazy thought. I could see stabs at Griffin and Derrick Rose on this slate.
The First Of Our Two Big Real-Life But Possibly Gross NBA DFS matchups
Philadelphia heads to Boston for a matchup against the Celtics. Both teams play with low 102 paces and have equally elite 101 defensive efficiency ratings. Neither side was priced down for the tough matchup either. Brad Wanamaker projects as decent value with Marcus Smart out after he saw 24 minutes last game. But you really have to squint your eyes for everything else in this game on a projection basis. Despite the ugliness, you’ll likely have to play some of the core guys in the matchup.
I’d favor Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons on Philadelphia’s side with Tobias Harris not too far behind. Al Horford has the most appealing price in his return to Boston but he doesn’t project particularly well and he’s banged up. The NBA DFS ownership seems efficient on all of them so the only lean I may have is trying some lineups with Harris and Horford in the hopes Boston keys in on the more threatening Simmons and Embiid.
On Boston’s side, it seems like Jaylen Brown is the best value relatively speaking but it’s close to a coin flip between the core of Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward. I may be more inclined to take the value from Daniel Theis and hope one of he or Enes Kanter emerge as a decent value in the middle.
And The Other Slightly Less Gross NBA DFS Game Out West
Denver’s side is actually in a decent spot but Portland looks pretty bad in a tough and pace-down matchup at Denver. Vegas’s 104 expected points for them represents an 8.8 point decrease on their season average. Denver has a 100.3 defensive efficiency rating and 100 pace, both brutal for fantasy production. No one projects as particularly good value on Portland’s side as a result. I might be more inclined to take a stab at reasonably priced guys like Carmelo Anthony and Kent Bazemore, two guys that could benefit from tight coverage to Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. But it feels really flimsy for Portland overall.
Denver should benefit from more pace from Portland. Jamal Murray said he expects to play but I’d favor Will Barton with their comparable price points. His monster 53 FP against Philadelphia may put his ownership high enough to think about a pivot to Murray, particularly since a lot of Barton’s success came thanks to Murray’s injury knocking him out of the game. Nikola Jokic gets a good matchup with Hassan Whiteside but we all know his ups and downs on the year. I’m okay with the field’s 26% expected ownership on him as long as you know the risks.
One key news item to watch out for is Paul Millsap’s status. He’s currently questionable and, if he were to miss, Jerami Grant would become a well-deserved chalk play of the day. On a slate desperately short on value, I wouldn’t mind Grant even if Millsap is in. Ditto for Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee. I’m up to take whatever I can get on this slate.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!
