Thursday brings us a four-game slate that looks abut 75% awesome for our NBA DFS picks tonight. There are three games that seem like they should have a ton of fantasy production while also serving as entertaining real-life games. And then there’s Denver playing the Knicks. But I’ll discuss everything that I think about making lineups tonight in the Dec. 5 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
Also be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
An Intriguing Back-To-Back NBA DFS Spot For Phoenix
Phoenix heads to New Orleans for a solid pace-up spot in a game with a 235 combined total. New Orleans also has a 110.8 defensive rating that should balance out whatever fatigue Phoenix has on this back-to-back game. Ricky Rubio would be the guy I want the most, especially if Aron Baynes somehow were to return to the lineup given the positive impact he has on Rubio’s game. Frank Kaminsky also should find some ownership if Baynes is out after he had 36.75 FP in 26 minutes yesterday. Though if Kaminsky’s ownership became unwieldy, it could be a nice spot to go back to Cheick Diallo after he had 25 FP of his own in 19 minutes. One of these guys should have a good NBA DFS game today.
Kelly Oubre and Devin Booker’s prices seem cheap for this matchup too. Given the pace, I don’t hate the idea of loading up on pieces in the hope the game soars from a fantasy standpoint.
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In that scenario, I’d want to run it back with some of the key Pelicans. Brandon Ingram still looks like the top play too me even with his price up a bit. Jrue Holiday continues to be negatively impacted by Lonzo Ball sharing court time, and vice versa. Lonzo is a 0.93 FPPM player when on the court with Jrue while Jrue is a 0.99 FPPM player in the same situation. Jrue goes to 1.2 FPPM without Lonzo while Lonzo goes to 1.1 FPPM without Jrue. It’s not a great mix for these guys at their current salaries unless they excel as scorers. Interestingly enough, Ingram is at his best self as a 1.34 FPPM player when both guys are on the floor likely due to their ability to assist him. It’s an interesting dynamic.
Derrick Favors would be in a good spot if he returns. He’s questionable as of writing this and, if he misses, we would see more opportunity for Jaxson Hayes and Nicolo Melli. Favors’ price is too cheap if he’s in, though.
Philadelphia Gets The Dream Spot Of Playing Washington
The league’s fastest-paced and defensively weakest team is in Washington. And the 76ers could smash them in a game where Vegas projects them for a 12.7-point boost on their season scoring average. Ben Simmons will see more upside on his 36% assist rate and should get easy buckets at pace. Joel Embiid is way too cheap for one of the best center matchups in the league. Al Horford and Tobias Harris are perfectly fine too. I wouldn’t even rule out the unholy trinity of Furkan Korkmaz, James Ennis and Matisse Thybulle who will compete for minutes on the wing with Josh Richardson out. This is an unbelievably good situation for everyone in a blue road jersey.
The Wizards’ side is less appealing. Bradley Beal can certainly put up points in any spot with his 31% usage rate that stands to increase with no Thomas Bryant. Beal had 30 shot attempts in 42 minutes against Orlando last time out, good for 39% usage. Beal is a 1.4 FPPM player without Bryant with 35% usage on the year compared to 1.2 FPPM and 30% usage on the court with him. Mo Wagner could benefit from the Bryant situation too if he’s in. If not, I’d expect Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura to continue to share nominal center minutes. Both guys were right at 40 minutes of court time each last game. They could maybe cede a couple more to Admiral Schofield now that he’s not playing for his G-League team in the same day but he’s unlikely to be very productive for NBA DFS.
Denver At New York? Barf
Jamal Murray looks fine at his price. Ditto for Will Barton. But it should be a low-paced game against the Knicks’ weak 110 defensive rating with many mouths to feed in Denver’s offense. Between those factors and the Knicks’ own mediocrity in a spot against the tough AND slow-paced Nuggets, I don’t see much to like here. The 203 combined total in the game is brutal but, perhaps on a slate this short, there may be some contrarian NBA DFS potential in loading up on the game. It just doesn’t seem great on paper even a little.
“Rockets Versus Raptors” Sounds Like A Fun NBA DFS Game And Movie Concept
This is a marquee game tonight that will be stellar to watch. But the Toronto side has to be more appealing to consider from an NBA DFS perspective given the pace-up that Houston represents. Kyle Lowry played 41 minutes (including overtime) in his return to the lineup last game and his price is too low if he can see that much run. The pace will offer more scoring and assist upside to him and Fred VanVleet, who still saw 43 minutes last game despite Lowry’s return. VanVleet is also too priced down for a less appealing situation with Lowry back but it’s possible these guys still have strong upside in this spot in particular. Pascal Siakam may suffer the most from these guys back in the lineup with less ballhandling time for him. He’ll get more quality spot-up looks but that’s certainly not his strong suit.
I’d prefer Russell Westbrook on the Houston side given Lowry’s team-worst 106 defensive rating. James Harden can get going in any spot but I don’t love his price and the situation. And Clint Capela could thrive on the boards given his sky-high 15 rebounds per game. But it’s hard to love Houston on paper with their prices not really tweaked for the tough matchup on the road.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!
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