It’s Friday and we get to close the week out with a 10-game slate full of interesting situations for NBA DFS picks. We have a legitimate Game of the Year contender brewing with the Clippers and the Bucks where there could be insane fantasy production in addition to a possible NBA Finals preview. But we also have a ton of quality fantasy spots, possibly another Ish Smith chalk night and a whole lot to discuss. So let’s get into tonight’s array of games with the Dec. 6 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
Also, be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Miami Gets The Washington NBA DFS Boost
The Heat are at home with a 120.8-point implied total thanks to a date with Washington. The Wizards somehow upset the 76ers on yesterday’s short slate but they still allowed multiple big performances. There’s possibly even more blowout risk on this road back-to-back but it’s hard to not like many Heat players. Washington has a league-high 107.4 pace and league-worst 114.3 defensive efficiency rating. Primary ball handlers Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn, Justise Winslow and maybe even a heat check (no pun intended) guy like Tyler Herro can put up stats in this spot. It’s also a nice situation for Bam Adebayo given his ability to rack up boards and peripheral stats at pace. I’ll have a lot of these guys tonight.
Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
Bradley Beal still looks like the most appealing Wizard to run it back with in terms of ceiling. He’ll find some brutal wing defense with the Heat’s 102 defensive efficiency rating but Beal’s usage continues to soar without Thomas Bryant. Isaiah Thomas being out would make Ish Smith super chalky once again. He may not enjoy the Heat’s interior D with Adebayo either but Smith would be another very valuable piece today. Mo Wagner projects for a good chunk of ownership after he returned to the lineup and saw 26 minutes. He’s a risk to lose minutes to Davis Bertans if he starts draining buckets again and it’s not a great matchup but the price makes him fairly appealing. Wagner, Bertans, and Rui Hachimura will all get a chance to get going thanks to Washington’s lack of bodies.
With a back-to-back, I also may have a little bit of Troy Brown and Chris Chiozza on the assumption there could be a blowout. Miami is a good team, it’s not impossible that Washington saw themselves a bit of South Beach and it’s a back-to-back off an emotional win for the Wizards. That’s a tough trio of factors.
A Possible NBA Finals Preview?
The Clippers head to Milwaukee for a date with the Bucks in a game with a 232.5 combined total. Both teams come with elite defenses and high-powered offenses but the high total makes it seem like this could be a game to find some upside. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all priced down for this matchup. They should be in consideration tonight as a result. This should be one of the night’s faster-paced games and these guys can excel even with the tough defense.
In builds without some of these guys, I’m intrigued by the ancillary pieces on both sides. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell could see more of a workload if George and Leonard falter at all against this tough Bucks defense. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton also have appetizing prices and could take some of the workload off Giannis’s plate with the tough defense he’ll see and the energy he’ll expend on their defensive end. There are definitely some things to like here.
An Underowned NBA DFS Game In Charlotte
Spencer Dinwiddie has at least 38.25 FP in his last six games. He’s also topped a 30% usage rate in all of those games. Charlotte represents a slight pace-down but their poor 111 defensive efficiency rating offers scoring and assist upside for Dinwiddie. Under 5% ownership for him seems crazy. It’s a little tougher for me to pay for the priced-up Taurean Prince and Jarrett Allen but it’s not insane to have interest in either. They’ve seen steady workloads and court time since Kyrie Irving went out.
Devonte’ Graham was an NBA DFS slate breaker the last time he played. He shot 10-for-16 from deep for a career high 63.25 FP. He also has a 37% assist rate on the year. The price point isn’t great but he has the upside to exceed it. It may be a more logical move to try the slightly cheaper Terry Rozier who’s also started to round into form lately. Rozier had 51.75 FP of his own in that last game versus Golden State. It’s not quite as easy of a defensive matchup but that doesn’t mean these guys can’t get there.
A Slow-Paced But Somewhat Appealing Night In Cleveland
Orlando has had some really strong NBA DFS performances lately with their usage a bit more concentrated thanks to Nikola Vucevic’s absence. Evan Fournier has been a play I’ve liked a lot lately as he’s seen upwards of 23 shots in games recently. He needs to score a lot of real-life points to tap into his upside but Cleveland’s 111.4 defensive efficiency rating will give him a chance at that. Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon have also seen more looks lately and it’s paid off. Fultz scored a career high in points in their second to last game. Gordon has 49.25 FP and 37.25 FP in his last two. It wouldn’t be crazy to see these guys exceed again.
Jonathan Isaac is less reliable due to his inefficiency as a scorer and inconsistent usage. But with Cleveland’s turnovers and poor offense, he could find more opportunities for defensive upside. Orlando’s defense has been much worse without Vucevic too so there is room for NBA DFS potential for Cleveland. Kevin Love is too cheap if he makes it into the lineup after he missed shootaround due to illness. If he’s out, Larry Nance could be a smash play as decent value despite the low paced spot.
I don’t hate Tristan Thompson at his price either with him likely to get what he wants against Khem Birch. Collin Sexton has also actually been steady recently with his last three games over 30.75 FP. These guys may not have monster ceilings but they can exceed value in a meaningful way.
Chicago: Annoying But In A Good Spot Again
The Bulls has a pace-up game against Memphis the other day where very few players overachieved despite a stellar situation. The Bulls’ 101.3 offensive efficiency rating is one of the worst in the league. Golden State will give them a chance with a 110.9 defensive efficiency rating but it’s hard to bank on these guys. I’m okay with Zach LaVine given his steady usage but it seems like he needs to hog the ball more to tap into the big upside he sporadically shows. He has not meaningfully exceeded value as he shot 13 times in the last two games.
Wendell Carter and Tomas Satoransky may be more appealing options given their ability to contribute with peripherals at more reasonable NBA DFS prices. It also doesn’t seem like a bad situation for Kris Dunn at the same token. He saw 24 minutes last game thanks to foul issues but could have a decent value day if he gets closer to 30 minutes today.
Some Oddly Chalky Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Steven Adams and Dennis Schroder all project to have a decent amount of ownership tonight, a rarity for the Thunder. It’s not a bad spot for these guys given Minnesota’s high 106.7 pace but I’m not sure I’d want as much as the field. For cash? Maybe. But it’s hard to expect a tournament-winning NBA DFS ceiling for these guys with their fairly low pace and mediocre offensive ability.
With the reasonable prices, it’s an interesting thought as a game stack even though that’s not an optimal construction on a slate of this size. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are the clear top dogs on Minnesota’s side and, if Oklahoma City has multiple guys succeed, we could see a competitive game that taps into the upside of both. That’s one way to use the field’s Thunder ownership against them with very little ownership expected to go Minnesota’s way.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!
