The Switch & Hedge 2/12 NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for DraftKings | FanDuel

We’re in our dying days before the NBA All-Star Break and there are 11 games for our NBA DFS picks today as a result. It’s a loaded slate with some key news already out thanks to Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s paternity leave and there’s a ton to hit on as a result. You’ll need unique strategies due to the differing salaries on NBA DFS sites tonight and I’ll explain the key points below. There’s a lot to talk about so let’s get into it with the Feb. 12 Switch and Hedge!


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Giannis Out Again in a Tale of Two NBA DFS Cities

Bucks

In a situation that’s emblematic of the differences between the main NBA DFS sites this year, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe are underpriced on FanDuel but appropriately priced on DraftKings for their game tonight without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Middleton and Bledsoe both average over 1.5 fantasy points per minute without Giannis and are clearly deserving chalk on FanDuel even with the adverse conditions versus Indiana.

The margins are much tighter for both on DraftKings, but I’d still want above the field on both as they’re projected for 10% or less ownership. This is still a good team without Giannis and everything flows through these two. Ersan Ilyasova is a bit of a different story where his FanDuel NBA DFS price still works but I wouldn’t want more than the field on DraftKings. There’s some risk he will give up a bit of run to Marvin Williams if he makes his Bucks debut tonight.

Pacers

Myles Turner looks playable on Indiana’s side and will probably see some clean looks from deep. Malcolm Brogdon appeals to me more than Victor Oladipo given where both’s prices are, though Oladipo remains due for some positive regression on his 28% usage with his 30% shooting from the floor and 23% from 3. Oladipo is currently expected to be insane chalk again today and I would be reluctant to get above the field on him with how out of sorts he’s looked.

The Knicks Get the Washington NBA DFS Boost

Knicks

Good Zach LaVine showed up for the Bulls yesterday against Washington as other Bulls like Coby White also went off as we hoped. Now the Knicks get the same Wizards team on a back-to-back at Madison Square Garden and their guys can see a similar boost. Julius Randle went for 64.5 fantasy points in the Knicks’ last game, a double-overtime affair where Randle played 46 minutes. He’ll be well-rested for a similar spot tonight.

While R.J. Barrett has seemingly cut into Elfrid Payton’s upside with the ball handling time he absorbs, he only takes a little off the table for Randle. Barrett himself also looks on the cusp of playable, though he has yet to top 22 minutes since his return from injury. It may be more logical to go Reggie Bullock’s way with his mostly secure role.

Wizards

Mo Wagner got to 27 minutes yesterday and that is a tough proposition to expect again on a back-to-back after Scott Brooks said his minutes would be “monitored.” I don’t mind a stab at him, but the minutes could get narrow. It may be more logical to take a stab at Ian Mahinmi at a discount price after foul trouble cut his minutes last night. Ish Smith is fairly priced while Bradley Beal remains capable of breaking a slate but is a little overpriced for this fully stocked Washington lineup on a back-to-back. Beal’s usage remains in the mid 30% range but guys like Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans being available make it less of a necessity for Beal to gun Washington into games.

A Fast Paced, Mostly Poor Defense Spot in Memphis

Trail Blazers

The Grizzlies have started to defend a little more competently over the last month, but they still play with a 106 pace that gives Portland some upside on their back-to-back. Hassan Whiteside is the first guy to look at with a favorable matchup against Jonas Valanciunas. Whiteside will be close to the rim and he had a solid 41.5 fantasy points last night despite his minutes being limited to 27 due to a blowout.

C.J. McCollum busted last night for those same reasons, but he’s well-priced again and projects for under 10% ownership. Damian Lillard is still at his elevated price but he’s seeing higher usage and can get there in a game that’ll cause him fewer issues than New Orleans did yesterday. Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza are fine but mostly unnecessary plays on a slate of this size. If they land in a lineup, cool. If they don’t, that’s also good.

Grizzlies

Dillon Brooks interests me more at Anthony ‘s and Ariza’s positions. Brooks is priced well and he seems due for a bounce back on some poor shooting lately. He shot 4-for-17 last game and 0-for-8 from deep, but Portland’s 110.8 defensive rating can cure some of what ails him. Jaren Jackson also looks well-priced for the game with the same foul risk he always presents.

Jonas Valanciunas should benefit from the matchup with Whiteside as much as Whiteside will benefit from it. He’s at a good price today that has some upside. This is also the kind of game where Ja Morant may show up big with Lillard on the other side. Morant had the first triple-double of his career last game versus Washington as he played 35 minutes. This is a comparable spot for him at under 5% projected ownership.

Will Charlotte Take the Bait Against Minnesota’s High Pace?

Hornets

Charlotte simply refuses to play fast no matter the matchup. The 15.4 seconds into the clock they’ve shot in 2020 is the slowest in the NBA as their league-low 98.6 pace is no aberration. But things have started to turn for Devonte’ Graham and I’m interested in him today. Graham had a tough run to start 2020 thanks to sharing all of his minutes with Terry Rozier and Malik Monk.

But in the last few games, Graham has seen some minutes without either and also operated as lead ball handler even with one of the other guards on the floor. The result is three straight games of 10 or more assists and a 45% assist rate in that stretch, including 50.5 fantasy points versus Dallas. Minnesota’s defense is not good with a 108.9 defensive rating that will only get worse with D’Angelo Russell in the fold. Graham intrigues me at low ownership tonight.

P.J. Washington is passable value that looks too chalky right now. I may be more inclined to take stabs at Rozier or Monk at a similar price to Washington. Washington is a fine play but a third of the field on him would be a lot. Cody Zeller could also be more interesting with the havoc Minnesota could do inside. Washington won’t do much to stop that but Zeller could at least pitch in.

Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns looks good with one of the best center matchups in the league that’s also slow enough to get him into quality position. He put up 82.25 fantasy points against Charlotte earlier this year and, while Russell will cut into his usage a bit, it’s a good situation for Towns again. I’m less into Russell with the pace down and Russell’s price still reflecting his Golden State role. Russell debuted to just 24% usage

I’m also less into the James Johnson chalk with him mostly serving as the direct backup to Juan Hernangomez outside of closing last game. Johnson has 20 and 28 minutes in his two games with the Wolves thus far and 0.88 fantasy points per minute this year is fine but is way overowned currently.

A Reasonably Priced Luka Doncic Returns

Mavericks

After missing a handful of games, Luka Doncic will return to the lineup for a game against Sacramento. Doncic’s minutes feel like they could get a haircut in his return to the lineup but he put up 70.75 fantasy points in 34 minutes the last time he faced Sacramento. I don’t mind him here with just 2% projected ownership while I’d avoid Kristaps Porzingis thanks to his price reflecting Doncic-less life.

Kings

De’Aaron Fox looks good on the other side again after he came through versus Milwaukee with 46.5 fantasy points with a near triple-double. Fox had 56.75 fantasy points in that same game Doncic went off in last time out and a lineup with Fox and Doncic intrigues me. Fox’s role is the most secure out of the Kings. Buddy Hield has been up over 32 minutes in his last three games despite his bench role and he looks fine as a result. He and Bogdan Bogdanovic are less reliable plays but both see enough run to be useful if this game gets lose.

I also never have an issue landing on Nemanja Bjelica with where his price is while I’m less likely to chase Harrison Barnes’ recent hot run. Barnes has over 31.75 fantasy points in three out of his last four games but his usage didn’t top 20% in any of them.

A Solid NBA DFS Get-Well Spot for Devin Booker

Suns

Devin Booker had a poor effort versus the Lakers with 2-for-11 shooting as Deandre Ayton sat. A matchup against Golden State’s 110.3 defensive rating is a good time for him to figure it out. I like Booker’s upside even though his 21% projected ownership sees fair. The same goes for Kelly Oubre who came off the bench last game and played just 27 minutes but was on pace for over 30. Oubre would be more comfortable as a play if he starts but he’s in play either way. Ayton is questionable and I could see playing him if he’s in with 1.3 fantasy points per minute. The price tag on him is tougher than Booker’s but Ayton has no one to stop him on Golden State.

UPDATE: Ayton was downgraded to Doubtful as I wrote this column. Cheick Diallo played 39 minutes without him last game and he looks like a near-lock play on FanDuel while he’s still in play on DraftKings at an elevated price point. Diallo averages 0.93 fantasy points per minute.

Warriors

Marquese Chriss looks fine with over 33.75 fantasy points in his last two games. It’s a revenge game for a seemingly spiteful guy in Chriss and he has a steady role with an NBA DFS price many people won’t land on despite 1.1 fantasy points per minute. Andrew Wiggins looks okay and I feel similarly about Damion Lee. I don’t know that I’ll have a ton of either but I don’t mind them against Phoenix’s slightly faster pace and mediocre defense.

A Shockingly High Total in Cleveland

Cavaliers

Cleveland and Atlanta face off in a game with a slate-high 234.5 combined total. In Andre Drummond’s Cleveland debut, he averaged 1.9 fantasy points per minute with a slightly higher 35% usage and a slightly lower 22% rebound rate as he put up 47.5 fantasy points. That was a tougher situation against the Clippers, one that saw Drummond’s minutes limited due to a blowout, and Drummond looks like a core play today as a result.

Kevin Love is questionable with an Achilles issue and Larry Nance would be a solid play if he’s out. It’s a good spot for multiples of these guys to get going thanks to the pace-up against Atlanta’s 111.5 defensive rating. I wouldn’t rule out Collin Sexton or Kevin Porter either due to the matchup. Vegas projects Cleveland to score 10.6 more points than their season average.

Hawks

Trae Young looks like a very strong and underowned play to me on Atlanta’s side. It’s a lower-paced game for them but Cleveland allows 49.3% shooting from the floor with a 114.2 defensive rating. They gave up 133 points to a Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers squad in Drummond’s debut and Atlanta can get buckets easily here.

John Collins had a somewhat down effort last time out on a back-to-back after a double-overtime game. I don’t love his rising price but he had over 47.75 fantasy points in his four games before that 37 fantasy points effort versus Orlando. Collins’ FanDuel price is more appealing. I’d have none of the Atlanta second tier with Kevin Huerter, DeAndre Hunter, Cam Reddish and Jeff Teague now all in action. The usage constricts heavily for these guys with all of them available.

Other NBA DFS Items to Note

  • Serge Ibaka is questionable with an illness for tonight’s game at Brooklyn. If he’s in, I’d want some exposure. If he’s out, you’ll likely see boosts for Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby It also wouldn’t be a bad time to get some Chris Boucher exposure after he bombed as chalk, playing just 13 minutes last game. Boucher didn’t pick up the start or any increase in run last time out as the Raptors opted to use Siakam at center for most of the game.
  • Caris LeVert’s price has trickled back down after he struggled with 4-for-13 shooting against Indiana. They sold out to defend him and LeVert hung 51.25 fantasy points on Toronto the game before that. Spencer Dinwiddie also looks fine at his price point but much more highly owned than LeVert. That helps my LeVert interest.
  • Mike Conley is questionable with an illness tonight at home versus Miami. If he’s out, that would bump up Joe Ingles for me at a reasonable price. It would also likely mean more run for Royce O’Neale but he’s far from a secure play with 0.64 fantasy points per minute on the year. Jordan Clarkson would also see a boost in the second unit but his price is high enough that he doesn’t seem worth much more than a few dart throws in this matchup.
  • LeBron James and Anthony Davis look appropriately priced but underowned for a late night hammer against Denver. The same applies for Nikola Jokic, whose usage has taken a hit with Jamal Murray back in the lineup. That said, Jokic is still providing ample upside thanks to his 35% assist rate and steady rebounding. It will be a playoff-type atmosphere in Denver tonight and those are the time I don’t mind getting a little Jokic in my life.

Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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