The Switch & Hedge 2/5 NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for DraftKings | FanDuel

It’s a nine-game slate today, and yesterday’s blockbuster 12-player trade will have major ramifications on tonight’s NBA DFS picks. We have a lot to hit on with depleted rosters for the Timberwolves and Nuggets as well as another day of Kristaps Porzingis shining in the spotlight with Luka Doncic sidelined. There’s a ton of value and a lot of compelling studs to play so let’s get into all of it with the Feb. 5 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!

Be sure to read EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.

Also, we will be streaming on Twitch this week! Check out our show schedule for today below:


A Whole Lot of Minutes to Go Around for Minnesota

Minnesota was a part of the four-team deal that saw Clint Capela go to the Hawks, Robert Covington to Houston and Shabazz Napier to Denver. Malik Beasley, Evan Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt and Juancho Hernangomez will head to Minnesota but none are expected to be available for today’s game with the Hawks. The usage should be highly concentrated for Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns and both look like top plays today as a result against Atlanta’s faster pace and 111.3 defensive rating.

Towns goes from 1.5 fantasy points per minute on the court with Wiggins to 1.7 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins while Covington and Jeff Teague are off the floor this year and that’s a pretty decent boost in a matchup where he already would project fairly well. Wiggins just needs fewer guys taking the ball away from him and he’ll have all the runway he needs tonight to match the 30% usage he had when Teague, Covington and Napier were off the floor. Towns is a much safer play tonight and every night but it wouldn’t shock me if Wiggins has a shockingly good Wiggins day thanks to all this opportunity and the matchup.

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Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie will take some of the secondary scraps with Jordan McLaughlin and Kelan Martin likely to see a temporary boost in roles as well. It’s hard to expect massive upside from any of these guys, though Culver will be treated like a lock industrywide today based on early runs of ownership. But it wouldn’t be shocking if one of them has an outlier day. The obvious candidates are Culver and Okogie but I wouldn’t sleep on McLaughlin with his 26% assist rate on the year. Naz Reid seems like he could find his way to some additional run as well and I don’t mind a flier or two on him.

Trae Young looks solid on Atlanta’s side with their team less materially affected by their trade assets given up. Kevin Huerter would still be my preference over Teague, though the upside of both will be cut into by De’Andre Hunter if he makes it back into the lineup. Teague had 21% usage while Huerter had 23% usage in their last game without Hunter and Cam Reddish. Both are vaguely interesting plays if Hunter doesn’t return. I’m less into John Collins with his price up, but he’s been over 40.75 fantasy points in his last four games. He’s fine if the price works but he isn’t a play I’d go out of my way for. The game should have a lot of production with the shorter rotations and 238.5 combined total so it’s worth it to try different mixes of guys.

Dallas Gets Another NBA DFS Boost Versus Memphis

Kristaps Porzingis still appears underpriced on both of the main sites with this matchup against Memphis. He now is up to 1.35 fantasy points per minute in court time without Luka Doncic with a 30% usage rate. He put up 56 and 59 fantasy points against Houston and Indiana, respectively, in his last two games without Doncic. Porzingis has been a monster and I’m not willing to jump off the train with his price where it is on DraftKings or FanDuel. Jalen Brunson is less of a must-have with his price where it is, but he still has a 34% assist rate with 21% usage when sharing the court with Porzingis.

Tim Hardaway seized a lot of the usage last game with 17 shot attempts in 33 minutes and it’s possible that flows back Brunson’s way. I’m not dying for much of either guy as a result, though the pace-up against Memphis offers decent opportunity.

This seems like another nice spot for Jonas Valanciunas with Dallas’s lack of worrisome centers and a lot of gunners like Hardaway who can put up bricks. Valanciunas is sneaky today with his price where it is and next to no ownership expected. Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant look fine at their prices but it is a pretty big pace-down against Dallas. The Mavericks’ side is likely much more worth targeting, Valanciunas aside.

A Not So Sneaky But Interesting NBA DFS Game In Detroit

Reggie Jackson currently projects to be owned out the wazoo for a game at home against Phoenix with Derrick Rose already ruled out. Jackson played only 24 minutes last game on a back-to-back after he was a game-time decision with his ongoing back issues. He shot 1-for-16 in that spot, and has shot a horrid 37% on the year, but his high usage and this not being a back-to-back makes him still the more appealing option than Bruce Brown. Brown remains a natural pivot at the same price point and I don’t hate playing them together since Brown should start again at the two with Svi Mykhailiuk out while also picking up the backup point guard minutes.

Andre Drummond could feast inside against Deandre Ayton and the matchup looks appealing for both. Ayton will be much less owned but I like Drummond more on paper. I also don’t mind Sekou Doumbouya again even though he’s up quite a bit from last game’s minimum price. Doumbouya shot 2-for-15 in that game against Memphis but the opportunity was there for him with Mykhaiuliuk’s and Markieff Morris’ absences. Morris out again would make me take some stabs at Doumbouya. I’m not as sure what to make of Christian Wood. He’s great when he’s out there and he got up to 34 minutes last game, including a lot with Drummond thanks to Memphis’ bigs. His size is less of a natural need here so I’m not confident he will get major run again.

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Devin Booker is able to shoot the lights out and break the slate at his current price point with the 47.6% shooting that Detroit allows from the floor. It’s a lower-paced game but Booker should see some clean looks. He’d be the guy I like the most, though Kelly Oubre isn’t totally out of play for me either. I remain averse to Ricky Rubio after he bombed once again with an even lower price last game at Brooklyn. He lost minutes to Elie Okobo, who shot well off the bench, and I’d only take some Rubio if he remains under 1% owned as currently projected.

Boston Shorthanded At PG Again

Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart are out which makes Brad Wanamaker a consideration once again. His FanDuel price seems more logical than his DraftKings one. Wanamaker came off the bench last game then ended up the starter for the second half as he put up 35.25 fantasy points in 27 minutes against Atlanta. This matchup is far less hospitable thanks to Orlando’s low pace and quality defense.

I’d be more okay with Enes Kanter at his price and Daniel Theis already ruled out. Boston needs someone with size to throw against Nikola Vucevic and Kanter has big upside even if he only sees the low 20s for minutes. He’s the only Celtic I’d go out of my way for, though Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward will all see a boost thanks to Walker’s absence. Brown would be the most appealing to me after he bombed as chalk versus Atlanta last time out.

A Somewhat Sneaky NBA DFS Matchup In Brooklyn

Golden State has sneakily been competitive in their last few games and tonight they get D’Angelo Russell back for their game at Brooklyn. Russell will soak up a lot of the usage and will make it harder for priced-up guys like Glenn Robinson and Damion Lee to get there. I have no issue with Russell today with his steady 32% usage and a game against Brooklyn that could be competitive. Brooklyn has defended point guards poorly all year and Russell has been a beast as a scorer while remaining a steady distributor.

Draymond Green also seems fine to me again with over 42 fantasy points in three out of his last four games. He’s assisting and rebounding with reckless abandon and those are the times you want him the most. Marquese Chriss is on the cusp of playable to me. With Kevon Looney back in the mix, it seems like Chriss has a hard time getting much over 25 minutes. But we’ve seen big center days versus Brooklyn and Chriss at least has some degree of security in his minutes.

Spencer Dinwiddie stunk so badly in his first start with this current wave of Kyrie Irving absences. He played just 31 minutes as the Nets blew out the Suns thanks largely to Caris LeVert’s massive 45.75 fantasy points day with 37% usage on 20 shot attempts. I don’t mind going back to Dinwiddie and I wouldn’t be totally opposed to playing him with LeVert given a decent pace for Golden State that goes up when Russell is in the lineup. They stagger some minutes away from each other and both have fair prices. It’s a safer play to only have one in a lineup but I’m not sure I’d make an “only one of Dinwiddie or LeVert” rule.

Other NBA DFS Notes

  • Tristan Thompson was downgraded to doubtful as I wrote this, a situation that should increase the NBA DFS appeal for Larry Nance. Nance looks fine at his FanDuel price but a little iffy at his DraftKings one. I also wouldn’t be terribly inclined to point chase Kevin Love’s monster day versus the Knicks. Love put up 20 shots in 41 minutes in that spot, aided by overtime. Oklahoma City’s defense is not nearly as much of a sieve with a 105.9 defensive rating. Oklahoma City’s side looks better with reasonable prices for the usual suspects of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari with Dennis Schroder just a bit behind. The game’s low pace overall still seems iffy but Cleveland’s 114 defensive rating offers upside.
  • Denver at Utah looks like a game worth thinking about more than one would normally. Jerami Grant was hurt last night in the front half of Denver’s back-to-back and Juancho Hernangomez is no longer on the team to soak up his minutes as he was last night. Grant’s status is important to watch. If he’s out, that could open up run for Michael Porter if he’s able to go tonight, an interesting tournament play if so. It could also result in more run for Vlatko Cancar at a minimum price with a 1.1 fantasy points per minute average if Porter and Grant are out. P.J. Dozier also should see additional run thanks to Malik Beasley being traded but would only be interesting if Jamal Murray sits after his return to the lineup last night. That move would bump Monte Morris back up to the starters and give him a shot at unencumbered second unit run.
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  • Paul George was up to 31 minutes last game versus the Spurs and he’s at a reasonable price for tonight’s game versus Miami. This should be a fairly rugged game between the Heat and the Clippers but I like the prices on George and Jimmy Butler in a game that should have some playoff feel to it. It looks like this one will be entirely overlooked on main slates but there is room for some upside in a game that should be competitive down to the wire. I wouldn’t sleep on Bam Adebayo, and to a lesser extent due to his price, Kawhi Leonard for that reason.
  • Toronto is also well-priced for their home game against a tough Pacers squad. The game should have a fairly low pace and two quality defenses but the Raptors are able to produce in adverse conditions. Serge Ibaka seems sneaky with his size needed against Indiana’s big front line and his price down. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are also reasonably priced. Pascal Siakam is always capable of doing Siakam things as well when at his current price. It wouldn’t be crazy to me to try to get above the field on mixes of these guys given how overlooked this game will be thanks to the size of the slate and the tough matchup on paper.

I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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