It’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day and to commemorate one of America’s greatest men, we are chock full of games today for NBA DFS picks. It’s a bit of a weird slate from a content perspective thanks to the timing of the various slates. FanDuel’s main slate locks at 5 p.m. EST while DraftKings locks at 7:30 p.m. EST and, of course, we have all the usual injuries and questionable statuses to figure out as well. There’s a lot to hit on for both sites so let’s get into the weeds with the Jan. 20 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
Be sure to read EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Also, check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Josh Engleman.
FanDuel MLK Day NBA DFS Slate Notes
Due to the wide variety of game times on the schedule today, FanDuel will launch a slate that locks at 5 p.m. EST. As you may know from this column and our livestreams, I’m a DraftKings-first player but there are some interesting games on this FanDuel main slate. Here are the highlights I see:
- New Orleans at Memphis might be the NBA DFS game of the day. They have today’s best combined total at 240 points in a game where both teams play with high pace. New Orleans has a 110 defensive rating while Memphis has a 109 defensive rating so scoring should be fast and effortless. You’d like to see Jrue Holiday out to give you peak opportunity for Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball in a very strong spot for them. Ingram is legitimately good value if Holiday is out despite his high price.
- I also wouldn’t sleep on Jaren Jackson on the other side of New Orleans-Memphis. He’s a slightly better value than Ja Morant and his struggles with foul issues lately have caused his price to fall enough that he has upside in a game where he’ll see lots of clean looks from deep. It also wouldn’t be a shocker for Brandon Clarke to find a few more minutes with a game script that will leave Jonas Valanciunas less effective with shots that will go up faster than he can get into optimal position.
- I also like the pace-up for Oklahoma City as they head to Houston. Dennis Schroder is legitimately appealing to me as a value play on FanDuel. He has more upside when Danilo Gallinari is out. But the matchup off the bench gives him a chance to earn more minutes and this game will require elevated scoring to keep it competitive on the road. I also wouldn’t hate a stab at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Chris Paul. Gilgeous-Alexander’s price is still up from his one outlier 20-rebound game but these three (and Gallinari, who projects as the best FanDuel value outside of Schroder) can produce more than their current expected ownerships.
- New York at Cleveland is like a slower-paced version of New Orleans-Memphis. Cleveland has a 113.3 defensive rating while the Knicks have a 111.2 defensive rating. Julius Randle’s price seems a bit high though he’s probably got the best ceiling on New York’s side. I may be more inclined to take stabs at cheaper Marcus Morris or Mitchell Robinson. Tristan Thompson also seems like strong value on Cleveland’s side, though his ceiling can be tough with FanDuel roster construction.
- Part of the reason I’d have a tough time loading up on Thompson is Nikola Vucevic versus Charlotte. Vucevic is more expensive than Thompson but Charlotte provides one of the best center matchups in the league. Aaron Gordon also seems underpriced for FanDuel. These guys look strong in this matchup that will be slow paced but has Charlotte’s bottom-tier 110.6 defensive rating.
The Rest Of The Slate Starts With A Classic Rivalry
The Lakers head to Boston in a game where the 225-point combined total seems higher than I would expect. I don’t love the DraftKings prices for LeBron James or Anthony Davis though I could see taking Davis at his FanDuel price. They won’t have a great counter for Davis in particular if he makes it into the lineup. LeBron’s price would be more viable if Davis is out.
Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker are expected to play and both are at viable prices on both sites. Gordon Hayward may be the best value to me on FanDuel with his price now at a shockingly low $5,600. Hayward’s versatility can come into play here even though his usage, rebounds and assists all take a hit when the Celtics’ lineup is fully stocked. I also don’t mind Enes Kanter on DraftKings with his price now far more logical for a backup. He hasn’t seen over 20 minutes his last three games but he can spike an upside and earn extra minutes against a weaker Lakers second unit where Dwight Howard will keep him close to the rim.
Can DeRozan Keep It Rolling?
San Antonio at Phoenix has the best combined total on DraftKings’ main slate and I’m intrigued by the game, specifically DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan will be an anti-optimizer play with his season-long sample size unlikely to make him pop up in optimizers. But DeRozan averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute in 2020 as the Spurs have shifted the offense to work entirely around him. He’s been over 43.5 fantasy points in his last six games and this game against Phoenix is one where the wing defense will be weak in a pace-up situation. LaMarcus Aldridge and Dejounte Murray are better values on paper but this is very much DeRozan’s team right now.
Kelly Oubre will be back in the lineup for Phoenix and I like the prices on him, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton the most. Ricky Rubio will have a lot of assist upside here but Oubre’s return will cut into his time with the ball enough that I don’t see him as easily hitting his ceiling as the other guys. Ayton is unlikely to reach the 52 fantasy points he’s had in his last two games with Oubre sidelined but it’s possible his recent run of high usage could result in him stealing some opportunity from Oubre. I may be less inclined to play those two together in lineups.
Two Tougher NBA DFS Games To Parse Out
Denver at Minnesota doesn’t look the most appealing on paper. Denver is priced mostly correctly on DraftKings but with severely underpriced guys on FanDuel. Monte Morris and Jerami Grant in particular are guys who grade out as great value with questionable ceilings. Morris has not thrived with Jamal Murray out thus far but the spot against Minnesota’s 107.4 defensive rating is one where he may be able to overachieve finally. It may be worth paying up for Will Barton after he had a down game against Indiana. He spends a lot of time as lead ball handler, much to Morris fans’ dismay. Barton and Nikola Jokic can spike an upside here but projections that emphasize season-long sample sizes won’t fully capture their opportunity without Murray.
Andrew Wiggins went nuts with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup over the weekend as he put up 52.5 fantasy points and a triple-double against Toronto. Wiggins has historically brought it against his native Canada’s team but he’s also a better player with the attention Towns draws. At his DraftKings price, I’m willing to hope he gets it done despite the pace-down matchup against a Denver defense who hasn’t fully lived up to its rep with a decent but not spectacular 105.6 defensive rating. Shabazz Napier appeals to me more in lineups without Wiggins but he’s reasonably priced as well. Towns has yet to top 28 minutes so I find it a little tougher to get to him but he could certainly spike an upside with a fairly torrid history against Jokic that includes his last three games over 57.5 fantasy points.
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Indiana at Utah is a little harder to talk myself into with the 215-point combined total there. Rudy Gobert intrigues me with the decent center matchup thanks to the size Indiana requires with their big front line. Donovan Mitchell also seems fairly priced, though he’s tough to trust with Mike Conley back in the rotation and Mitchell’s own penchant for busting outside of the most cushy spots. I think you can play Mitchell and Gobert or Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon on the other side but this game environment seems really suboptimal on paper with the lack of pace and two steady defenses.
Golden State At Portland Is A Lovely NBA DFS Late Night Hammer
Damian Lillard should be one of the chalkiest plays on all the slates today. At his DraftKings price in particular, it’s exceedingly well deserved. Lillard will benefit a lot from C.J. McCollum’s ongoing absence. Lillard averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute with McCollum off the court this year alongside 34% usage and a 37% assist rate. He has limitless upside if Golden State can stay competitive. Hassan Whiteside is also a killer value play with no one on Golden State’s side remotely capable of keeping him off the boards. I’d favor both over Carmelo Anthony who’s been shockingly ineffective this year with Lillard on and McCollum off. Anthony averages just 0.74 fantasy points per minute in those situations.
I don’t know what to make of Gary Trent’s massive day with 48.25 fantasy points on 36 minutes in the first games fully without McCollum and Kent Bazemore game. Trent shot 12-for-18, obviously unsustainable, but at his near-minimum price, I could see taking a stab. Anfernee Simons seems to be a more logical beneficiary as a starter who also sees some staggered minutes without McCollum but I’d want exposure to both in the hopes one excels as strong value. Mario Hezonja also saw 29 minutes in that game and he’ll likely be the most forgotten man of the value plays. He’s not insane to go to, particularly with this solid matchup, but he’s really shown precious little thus far as a Blazer.
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D’Angelo Russell is an obvious run back against Portland’s 109.5 defensive rating. Russell is solidly priced on FanDuel and entirely too cheap on DraftKings. He’s a core play for me today. Alec Burks also is fine at his price, as is Damion Lee but likely with less of an upside. Both plus Draymond Green will be in play for me, but none will be as much of a priority for me as Russell. I don’t hate Willie Cauley-Stein as value either. I don’t know what upside he has but one would think he could see slightly extended minutes now that he’s back in the starting group and Whiteside is across from them. He got to 33 minutes against a team with comparable size in Denver.
