It was hopefully a good three-game slate for you guys yesterday but thankfully, we’ve got a more robust 10-game main slate today for our NBA DFS picks. We get another dose of Zion Williamson in our lives as well as a potential fantasy marquee game between Houston and Minnesota. We also have more Paul George-less Clippers and injured Celtics and, thankfully, no chalk Jeff Teague, so let’s talk about all the intriguing aspects of the slate in the Jan. 24 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
Be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Who Will Go Off For NBA DFS In The Houston-Minnesota Game?
The slate’s highest combined total of 234.5 points comes in Houston’s matchup with Minnesota. Two of the league’s fastest-paced teams with middling defenses will offer a lot of opportunity. James Harden’s price is down while Russell Westbrook’s is up and I think I’d be more inclined to go Harden’s way. Westbrook projects for very little ownership due to his significantly raised price and that could make him sneaky for tournaments as a “pay up to be contrarian” option. Clint Capela also will see a good amount of work with a reasonable price that offers some upside. He may be the best Houston option on a value basis.
Karl-Anthony Towns is an intriguing play with approximately 5% projected ownership. He’s seen upwards of 35 minutes since his return to the lineup and the chance for a big day is there with him posting a 38% usage rate in his last game against Chicago. Andrew Wiggins never feels like the most confidence inducing play but he’s had 46.25 and 52.5 fantasy points in two games since Towns’ return so far. He averages 1.2 fantasy points per minute with Towns on the floor this year with 30% usage and a 21% assist rate.
The idea of a highly owned Wiggins today is terrifying given his penchant for ghosting like a poorly matched Tinder date but the pace and space of Houston seems like a spot where he can keep it rolling. I’d be less inclined for Jarrett Culver’s high ownership and would favor Shabazz Napier over Robert Covington. But clearly Towns and Wiggins are the key decisions to consider.
The Banged Up Celtics Seem Ripe For NBA DFS
Jayson Tatum and Enes Kanter are out while Jaylen Brown is questionable. Kanter’s absence will likely secure Daniel Theis additional run with a price that’s not the greatest value on DraftKings but could be more usable as a FanDuel power forward. I’d be more into Kemba Walker and Gordon Hayward with Tatum out but would want to load up if Brown also misses. Walker averages 1.3 fantasy points per minute with Kanter and Tatum off the court while Hayward averages 1.03 fantasy points per minute of his own. But with Brown also out, that jumps to 1.34 fantasy points for Walker and 1.3 fantasy points for Hayward.
Given the low pace matchup and Orlando’s solid 104 defensive rating, I’d be more inclined for both of these guys if we see the bigger jump in opportunity that Tatum and Brown’s absence provides. If Brown’s in, which it seems he has trended towards as I wrote this article, then I’d likely want just one of the Walker/Hayward/Brown trio.
Orlando seems well priced on the other side. Nikola Vucevic has over 18 shots in seven of his last eight games with games around 55 fantasy points in that stretch. Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon also have decent prices with the wing defense likely to be worse if Tatum and Brown are both out. The game appeals to me more than one with a 212 combined total and 101.2 adjusted pace normally would thanks to the bodies that could be missing from Boston’s side.
Can Kawhi Do It All At Miami?
Paul George is out again which means we should see Kawhi Leonard at his 1.6 fantasy points per minute, 39% usage peak in a tough spot at Miami. He’s had over 61.25 fantasy points in four of his last six games without George. Miami will throw a lot at him and the last time he had a similar situation sans George, he had 47.75 fantasy points in a loss at Denver where both Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell were both right around 40 fantasy points each. I would want exposure to both sides of that probability equation here.
Miami is a competitive team but one who sometimes sees scores sail upwards thanks to their efficient 110 offensive rating. Maybe the Atlanta to South Beach nightlife Bermuda Triangle will sap the Clippers’ energy again after their surprise loss to the Trae Young-less Hawks. But with very little ownership currently expected for these guys, I’d be willing to take my shots.
The Heat’s side is a little tougher to parse out with the team efficiently priced across the industry. Jimmy Butler is usually my go-to guy in tough defensive games like this but his price is high enough that I’d have a hard time to get there. Maybe Kendrick Nunn or Goran Dragic produce without the Leonard defense Butler will likely see a good chunk of. A bounce-back game for Bam Adebayo after he put up just 19 fantasy points versus Washington may be the most intriguing option if you can afford him.
NBA DFS Chalk Dewayne Dedmon, Eh?
Dewayne Dedmon saw 31 minutes and 30 fantasy points at near-minimum prices industrywide in the Kings’ last game versus an Andre Drummond-less Detroit squad. Now he’ll face Chicago on the road in one of the league’s best center matchups with Marvin Bagley already ruled out again. I’d be willing to go to him some but the field’s 27% projected ownership seems a bit lofty with his price on the rise. The Bulls give up a lot of rebounds so he should have a floor but I’d worry that he could lose minutes to smaller lineups with the Bulls not offering a player even the caliber of Christian Wood on the other side. His 31 minutes were the second-most he’s played all year. If you’re confident in his minutes, the price is fair.
The game overall should be a low-paced affair but De’Aaron Fox looks good to me again. He’s had two down games in a row but the minutes are there for him to get up to the high 30s if he’s playing well. Buddy Hield and Nemanja Bjelica as well as Bogdan Bogdanovic are all at more reasonable prices. The Bulls’ defense has done a particularly good strong against opposing backcourts to I’d favor Bjelica out of that group. But there’s room for someone to overachieve besides Dedmon, particularly if minutes flow away from Dedmon to smaller lineups.
Zach LaVine was a dud against Minnesota in his last game but his usage is there enough to spike an upside here. Sacramento plays with more pace recently with their shots 13.6 seconds into the clock over the last month the quickest trigger on the slate. LaVine has some potential here with the same risk of a dud that he always brings to the table.
Another Interesting New Orleans Game
Zion Williamson made his debut and, as I was afraid, every Pelicans player underperformed alongside of him aside from Lonzo Ball. But my fear was that Williamson’s presence would cut into already narrow usage across the board and that wasn’t really the case. Brandon Ingram still saw 36% usage in his 34 minutes but his 6-for-22 shooting is what kept him limited to 30.75 fantasy points. Jrue Holiday suffered with 16% usage and just four assists. Ball also had a low 14% usage rate but got there with eight boards and 12 assists. Derrick Favors played just 23 minutes as Williamson cut into his minutes at the five. And Williamson himself had an insane 42% usage rate with 8-for-11 shooting and seven boards with three assists.
The prices still seem too high to fully trust but I think I’d be OK with Ingram and Williamson the most today. Ball is an interesting dart throw with low ownership but I wouldn’t be shocked to see lead ball handler opportunities flow more evenly between him and Holiday as the latter gets healthier. It’s a very crowded group in a pace-down game against a decent Denver defense.
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Monte Morris still seems priced well but continues to not really meaningfully exceed his salaries with a high of 27 fantasy points since Jamal Murray went out. Everyone else besides Nikola Jokic seems a bit overpriced to me. Jokic should see some solid scoring and assist opportunities and he’ll dominate if he sees minutes against Williamson at the five. It also feels like a Will Barton kind of game but he’s yielded just enough to Morris lately that he’d need to bump his usage up past the sub-19% he has in the last two games to get there. This is a game that feels like one you want exposure too but the depth and appropriate pricing of both teams makes it hard for me to fully love any part.
Other NBA DFS Notes Around This 10-Game Slate:
- I remain more bullish on DeMar DeRozan than many others in the industry even after he had his first bomb of 2020 with 29.25 fantasy points against Phoenix. LaMarcus Aldridge went nuts with 59 fantasy points and 33% usage while DeRozan yielded to him a lot during the game. The field’s 11% exposure for DeRozan seems worth matching but Aldridge should also be considered at comparable ownership. There’s low-owned game stack potential with guys like Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton on the other side coming off of a massive disappointment in their last game versus Indiana. San Antonio maintains a bad 110 defensive rating.
- Trae Young is back and our national nightmare of having to play NBA DFS Chalk Jeff Teague is over. Oklahoma City plays slow and with a passable defense but Young is cheap enough and projected for very low ownership. I think it’s an intriguing night to go back his way. Steven Adams’ status on the other side is an important one with him currently questionable. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has rebounded more as he’s been in and out of the lineup and Nerlens Noel saw 30 minutes without him last game. Given the pace-up matchup against Atlanta’s bad defense, Adams’ status is a key to watch.
- Andre Drummond is expected back from his lip injury in a game against fast-paced Memphis at home. He’s an interesting foil for Jonas Valanciunas, who should keep him right by the rim. Drummond had over 51.5 fantasy points in his last two games after what seemed to be some possible trade blues. He’s an interesting play today with his price down (and I never hate a low-owned Derrick Rose either). The aforementioned Valanciunas should also benefit from a rugged interior game against Drummond at a reasonable price.
- Pascal Siakam looked like his early season self last game versus Philadelphia with 34% usage and 15 boards en route to 44.25 fantasy points. New York plays slowly but can’t defend so Siakam seems like he should be more highly owned than the under-5% projected for him.
- T.J McConnell should see extended run again with Malcolm Brogdon out due to a concussion. He’s an interesting play against Golden State’s hideous 110 defensive rating. The price is up for McConnell on DraftKings, and he’s still playable, but he’s stupidly cheap on FanDuel and is a top value there today. Domantas Sabonis also looks fine to me in game where he could break a slate as the late-night hammer against Golden State’s poor shooting and non-existent interior defense.
I have been playing FD a while without alot of auccess.I joined you guys and my fantasy game has gone to a new level. Being a bit older I am just days in and have become more familiar with the site . Great job and I hope for more great info from all of you..Alex real cool articles on what u guys are about ..thanks from a def non tech guy .