We have ourselves another quality slate on Tuesday with six games for today’s NBA DFS picks. There are some players already ruled out who’ll affect the slate like Blake Griffin and Fred VanVleet, plus we still need information on questionable guys like C.J. McCollum and our ongoing national nightmare Karl-Anthony Towns to determine how the full picture of the slate will look. There’s a whole lot to hit on so let’s dig into everything worth hitting on in the Jan. 7 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
Be sure to read EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Also, check out today’s NBA Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Josh Engleman.
Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
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Waiting On Karl-Anthony In Memphis
Minnesota has one of the best matchups of the day in their game with a slate-high 228.5 combined total at Memphis. But Karl-Anthony Towns’ questionable status makes this game less of a known quantity as I write this. If Towns is in, he would be an appealing play even though his price has somehow come up during his injury period. The defense would also be a bit weaker for Minnesota and would make Memphis’ side more appealing overall.
If Towns is out, Andrew Wiggins looks too cheap. Wiggins returned to the lineup last game with 30% usage and 19 shot attempts in 31 minutes against slow-paced Cleveland. This pace-up against Memphis’ 110 defensive rating is one where he has serious upside. Shabazz Napier and Robert Covington also remain in play if Towns is out. Their margins are much tighter with their prices up though, and with the usage that Wiggins takes off the table.
Dillon Brooks and Jae Crowder look like decent value on the wing even though I wouldn’t expect anything close to Crowder’s 62-fantasy-point day over the weekend to occur again. Jonas Valanciunas also has upside but his price is high enough that he’s no sure thing. I’d be more into him if we knew Towns were in.
Another NBA DFS Friendly Matchup In Phoenix
Sacramento is on a back-to-back after a lackluster fantasy effort last night in a mostly easy win over Golden State. I’m willing to go back to guys like Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox again. The status of Richaun Holmes also seems important after he left yesterday’s game with a shoulder issue. Harry Giles saw a decent run of minutes when Holmes went out yesterday and he should see a boost in run if Holmes misses. Trevor Ariza and Nemanja Bjelica could see more court time as well without much size other than Giles to compete with Phoenix’s big Aron Baynes–Deandre Ayton front court.
Phoenix’s side also looks good even though this is a big pace-down on paper for them against Sacramento’s 99.9 pace. Devin Booker feels a little too expensive but I could see getting there. On a value basis, I’d be more comfortable with Aron Baynes, Ricky Rubio, Deandre Ayton and Kelly Oubre in that order. But Booker has started to dominate the ball more with over 31% usage in his last six games. He’s been over 51 fantasy points in four of those games and over 44.5 fantasy points in all of them. Did his injured forearm give him powers like the film Rookie of the Year? Hard to say, but with his price up, his margins are tighter.
Welcome To 2020 With NBA DFS Chalk Sekou Doumbouya
Blake Griffin is out and may opt for a season-ending surgery. We are all living in the era of Sekou Doumbouya now as a result. He had between 27 and 38 minutes in his three starts for Griffin and Markieff Morris is expected to remain out to siphon minutes away from him. Doumbouya looks like decent value but you should know the risks. Doumbouya has at least 10 shots in his three starts but a lowish 18% usage rate overall. He’s shown a 40-fantasy-point ceiling and a 19.25-fantasy-point floor. It’s a low-paced game against Cleveland’s weak 112.7 defensive rating so he can certainly get there but he’s no sure thing to excel.
Christian Wood also picked up the start last game and that may have been the result of the matchup against the Lakers’ big frontcourt. We’ll know whether or not he is starting before lock. I’d be more inclined for him if he starts again, something that may be more likely if Cleveland has both Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love active again after Thompson missed last game with an illness. If they go small, Svi Mykhailiuk likely will start and not do much. But Mykhailiuk as starter would likely open more opportunity for Doumbouya than he sees alongside Wood.
Andre Drummond and Derrick Rose look as good as always. Rose’s minutes have trended more reliably upwards to 27-29 lately. Drummond also is in a good situation that should keep him close to the rim. I like these guys and view them as far more secure than the other options. Bruce Brown looks good as well to a slightly lesser extent.
Dante Exum benefited from Kevin Porter’s absence last game and I wouldn’t totally sleep on him as NBA DFS value. He had 30% usage in 24 minutes against Minnesota last game and while he’s going to bump his head against Love’s return, I’m intrigued by what he can do against a weak Detroit second unit. Otherwise, I’d be most comfortable with Love and Collin Sexton overall. Detroit’s defense isn’t good with a 109.6 defensive rating. The game should be slow with both teams under a 102 pace but there’s room for a few plays to excel.
Additional Opportunity In Toronto
Fred VanVleet joins Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and Marc Gasol amongst Toronto’s walking wounded for a game against Portland at home. It’s hard to not want Kyle Lowry tonight as a result. He averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute with those guys out and will see a lot of time on the court with the ball in his hands. He played 43 minutes last game and that was with VanVleet.
It’s also possible Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will pick up more minutes after he came in following VanVleet’s injury last game. The Raptors closed that game with Hollis-Jefferson, Lowry, OG Anunoby, Serge Ibaka and Patrick McCaw and it seems like those guys should have secure minutes with the depleted lineup. Terence Davis may end up as the de facto backup point guard and that gives him a chance at production as well. Portland’s 109.1 defensive rating doesn’t stop much.
C.J. McCollum is currently questionable with an illness. If he’s out, Damian Lillard becomes more appealing despite the tough matchup. He had 62.25 fantasy points against Miami last game without McCollum. There are less competent defenders in Toronto’s lineup with their absences so I have no issue with him. Hassan Whiteside also isn’t an insane play even though Toronto has been solid against centers on the year. He averages 51 fantasy points in his last five games. These guys look safe to me but I don’t hate stabs at Carmelo Anthony or Anfernee Simons if McCollum misses.
A Day To Point Chase Steven Adams?
Steven Adams looks like a chalky play with 49.25 and 41 fantasy points in his last two games. He has another good matchup with Brooklyn tonight. Adams has over 15 rebounds in these games and he should get a comparable shot against a Brooklyn team that gives up 47.3 boards per game. It’ll help him if Nerlens Noel remains out with Adams up to 35 minutes in yesterday’s game with no Noel. If Noel is out again, I’ll be with the field’s high expected 25-35% ownership. If Noel is in, I’ll likely come under.
Chris Paul also looks fairly solid in this game with a reasonable price. He’s been hard to rely on but he looks solid today. He and Danilo Gallinari feel like less of a priority play than Adams but both look like solid values in this paced-up matchup.
Spencer Dinwiddie’s falling NBA DFS price also looks fairly appealing on the other side. He’s been pretty cold lately, including 27.25 fantasy points versus Orlando yesterday. But he still maintains a 32% usage rate on the year with a 35% assist rate as well. Caris LeVert will take some possessions away but also allow the defense from keying in on Dinwiddie. LeVert’s minutes limit keeps him from being playable at his price. Garrett Temple also jumps out as decent value with his price down. He, Joe Harris and Taurean Prince are all playable on the wing but with questionable upside.
A Possible Boat Race In Los Angeles
The Lakers are favored by 13 against the Knicks and it’s hard to not like Anthony Davis and LeBron James if you thought the Knicks could hang in the game. I still don’t mind these guys if you can afford them but the spread is a bit scary. I might try to run these guys back with Marcus Morris as one player who can keep it competitive at a reasonable price. Julius Randle is also a consideration who’s shown big upside and has the ability to muscle through their tough defense. Maybe Reggie Bullock with his rising minutes can also shoot them into the game as near-minimum priced value? It’s a late night hammer option to think about.
